Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal will be aiming for spots in the Rome quarterfinals when they take the court on Thursday. The two all-time greats are going up against familiar foes Stan Wawrinka and Denis Shapovalov, respectively.
(1) Novak Djokovic vs. (WC) Stan Wawrinka
Wawrinka has turned back the clock to make a surprising appearance in round three of the Internazionali BNL d’Italia. You have to turn it back even farther to find the last completed head-to-head match between these two veterans. That was the 2016 U.S. Open final, in which Wawrinka pulled off a good 6-7(1), 6-4, 7-5, 6-3 upset for his third Grand Slam title. They also faced each other at the 2019 U.S. Open, but Djokovic retired from their fourth-round contest while trailing two sets to love. Despite those results, the top-ranked Serb has won 19 of their 25 meetings (five of six on clay, not counting retirements).
Heading into Rome, Djokovic and Wawrinka had won a combined seven matches in 2022 (all seven by Djokovic). Wawrinka is just now coming back from a year-long injury absence and so far this week he has battled past Reilly Opelka and Laslo Djere in three sets. How much more can the 37-year-old’s body take when it isn’t used to this much tennis in a short amount of time? Having to face Djokovic won’t make things any easier–even though the No. 1 seed may not be in peak form. A semifinal run in Madrid was relatively encouraging and Djokovic had no trouble erasing Aslan Karatsev 6-3, 6-2 on Tuesday. This is a fun matchup on paper, but it probably won’t last long.
Pick: Djokovic in 2
(3) Rafael Nadal vs. (13) Denis Shapovalov
Nadal vs. Shapovalov is a rematch of the same tournament and same round last year, when the Spaniard survived 3-6, 6-4, 7-6(3) on his way to a 10th Rome title. Shapovalov also had Nadal on the ropes earlier this season at the Australian Open only for the Canadian to collapse in the fifth set en route to a 6-3, 6-4, 4-6, 3-6, 6-3 loss. Overall, the head-to-head series stands at 4-1 in Nadal’s favor (2-0 on clay) and he has won four in a row since falling to Shapovalov 3-6, 6-4, 7-6(4) at the 2017 Montreal Masters.
Like Djokovic, Nadal’s Madrid ouster came at the hands of eventual champion Carlos Alcaraz. But Rome generally suits the 35-year-old much better than Madrid; he is a 10-time champion of this event and his bid for No. 11 got off to an emphatic start with a 6-3, 6-1 beatdown of John Isner on Wednesday. Shapovalov has already passed two tough tests in the form of Lorenzo Sonego (7-6(5), 3-6, 6-3) and Nikoloz Basilashvili (6-4, 7-6(5)). Still, the world No. 16 is just 4-4 dating back to the Dubai semifinals. This is unlikely to be as competitive as their memorable 2021 showdown.
Pick: Nadal in 2
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