Rome R3 previews and predictions: Medvedev vs. Popyrin, Musetti vs. Nakashima

The proverbial second week of the Rome Masters begins with Daniil Medvedev squaring off against Alexei Popyrin and surging American Brandon Nakashima taking on hometown favorite Lorenzo Musetti.

(10) Daniil Medvedev vs. (24) Alexei Popyrin

Daniil Medvedev seems to be turning around what has been an otherwise disappointing season. The Russian has no titles in 2025 and at No. 11 in the rankings he is quite a way off his career high No. 1–which he has achieved a number of times in the past few years. Still, his recent result in Madrid is a bright spot, as Medvedev can at best be described as an inconsistent clay court player. The No. 10 seed easily dispatched Cam Norrie in the second round of the Internazionali BNL d’Italia on Friday.

Alexei Popyrin has won one of four matches he has played against Medvedev, although none were on clay. The Australian is posting a diabolical season. After showing up big in the second half of 2024, Popyrin has barely managed to win more than a match at a time. The 25-year-old delivered his best result in Monte-Carlo, where he reached the quarters–so at least his clay court fortunes are looking up.

Despite his record, Popyrin may have a shot at the upset. He is a better clay-courter than Medvedev and the surface in Rome plays like traditional European clay: slow. Needless to say, slow courts frustrate Medvedev more often than not. I’m going to give this one to Medvedev, but a Popyrin win would not be surprising.

Cheryl pick: Medvedev in 3

Ricky pick: Popyrin in 3

(8) Lorenzo Musetti vs. (28) Brandon Nakashima

American Brandon Nakashima defeated Lorenzo Musetti the last time the two men played, a four-setter on home soil at the 2024 U.S. Open. This time, though, it’s the Italian playing who has home-court advantage. The Rome crowd is the least of Nakashima’s problems, though. Far more intimidating is the fact that Musetti is probably the most in-form clay-court player on tour right now.

Musetti made the final of the Monte-Carlo Masters (l. Carlos Alcaraz) and the semis in Madrid (l. Jack Draper). Certainly fatigue may end up being a concern, but it’s hard to imaging that scenario in the third round of Rome in front of what is sure to be a raucous crowd. Musetti not only has the confidence of superb results, but he also sits at a career-high ranking of No. 9 in the world.

Unless exhaustion rears its head unexpectedly, it’s hard to imagine Musetti losing in this scenario. If they were playing in…say… Geneva next week, I might be inclined to conclude that the Italian might be a bit less motivated due to the French Open looming large at the end of the month. But since he is playing at home, motivation won’t be a question.

Cheryl pick: Musetti in 2

Ricky pick: Musetti in 2