Rome QF preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Nadal

Novak Djokovic took a circuitous route to make it happen, but the highly-anticipated Rome quarterfinal showdown between Djokovic and Rafael Nadal has come to fruition. They will meet again on Friday, with the winner to face either Kei Nishikori or Dominic Thiem.

Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal will be squaring off for the 49th time in their careers when they collide again in the quarterfinals of the Internazionali BNL d’Italia on Friday afternoon.

Djokovic, who pulled even with Nadal at 23-23 with a World Tour Finals semifinal victory last fall, is now leading the head-to-head series 25-23. He prevailed earlier this season 6-1, 6-2 in the Doha title match and 7-6(5), 6-2 in the Indian Wells semis. Djokovic is on a six-match winning streak at Nadal’s expense and has won 13 consecutive sets, but the last four of those matches (and eight of the sets) have come on hard courts. Clay should give the world No. 5 a much better chance, and he is 13-6 against Djokovic on this surface. Nadal has won three of their five previous Rome encounters, but Djokovic most recently got the job done 4-6, 6-3, 6-3 in the 2014 final.

The top-ranked Serb made his trek to Friday’s quarterfinal contest more interesting than necessary, but he rebounded from a first-set bagel at the hands of Thomaz Bellucci to survive 0-6, 6-2, 6-3 on Thursday night. He preceded that result by scraping past qualifier Stephane Robert 7-5, 7-5, so it is safe to say Djokovic has showcased nothing close to his best stuff so far this week. The top seed lost to Jiri Vesely right off the bat in Monte-Carlo last month, but he bounced back from that performance by capturing the Madrid title.

Nadal also dropped the first set of his third-round affair before overcoming Nick Kyrgios 6-7(3), 6-2, 6-4. The Spaniard is now 49-4 lifetime at the Rome Masters with seven titles. The recent Monte-Carlo champion, who preceded his defeat of Kyrgios by beating Philipp Kohlschreiber 6-3, 6-3, is 27-7 for the season and 15-1 on the current clay-court swing.

Although Djokovic’s form has been less than outstanding in Rome, he can expected to inevitably raise his level against tougher competition. After all, he is 24-1 in his last 25 sets against top-15 competition dating back to his semifinal victory over Roger Federer at the Australian Open. The surface will help Nadal make this one competitive and probably even steal a set, but Djokovic will likely extend his streak to seven against the nine-time French Open champion.

Pick: Djokovic in 3

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