Rome QF preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Nadal

Novak Djokovic took a circuitous route to make it happen, but the highly-anticipated Rome quarterfinal showdown between Djokovic and Rafael Nadal has come to fruition. They will meet again on Friday, with the winner to face either Kei Nishikori or Dominic Thiem.

Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal will be squaring off for the 49th time in their careers when they collide again in the quarterfinals of the Internazionali BNL d’Italia on Friday afternoon.

Djokovic, who pulled even with Nadal at 23-23 with a World Tour Finals semifinal victory last fall, is now leading the head-to-head series 25-23. He prevailed earlier this season 6-1, 6-2 in the Doha title match and 7-6(5), 6-2 in the Indian Wells semis. Djokovic is on a six-match winning streak at Nadal’s expense and has won 13 consecutive sets, but the last four of those matches (and eight of the sets) have come on hard courts. Clay should give the world No. 5 a much better chance, and he is 13-6 against Djokovic on this surface. Nadal has won three of their five previous Rome encounters, but Djokovic most recently got the job done 4-6, 6-3, 6-3 in the 2014 final.

The top-ranked Serb made his trek to Friday’s quarterfinal contest more interesting than necessary, but he rebounded from a first-set bagel at the hands of Thomaz Bellucci to survive 0-6, 6-2, 6-3 on Thursday night. He preceded that result by scraping past qualifier Stephane Robert 7-5, 7-5, so it is safe to say Djokovic has showcased nothing close to his best stuff so far this week. The top seed lost to Jiri Vesely right off the bat in Monte-Carlo last month, but he bounced back from that performance by capturing the Madrid title.

Nadal also dropped the first set of his third-round affair before overcoming Nick Kyrgios 6-7(3), 6-2, 6-4. The Spaniard is now 49-4 lifetime at the Rome Masters with seven titles. The recent Monte-Carlo champion, who preceded his defeat of Kyrgios by beating Philipp Kohlschreiber 6-3, 6-3, is 27-7 for the season and 15-1 on the current clay-court swing.

Although Djokovic’s form has been less than outstanding in Rome, he can expected to inevitably raise his level against tougher competition. After all, he is 24-1 in his last 25 sets against top-15 competition dating back to his semifinal victory over Roger Federer at the Australian Open. The surface will help Nadal make this one competitive and probably even steal a set, but Djokovic will likely extend his streak to seven against the nine-time French Open champion.

Pick: Djokovic in 3

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33 Comments on Rome QF preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Nadal

  1. Just wondering if you replace Rafa in place of Novak and had Novak lost the set point opportunities and Rafa would have won the match then would you have still been discussing that Rafa was fortunate otherwise Novak was the better player. I don’t think so.

    I think everyone would have been applauding how Rafa was trolling Novak and played great shots and even though Novak had set points Rafa was so good that he didn’t allow him to take the set and finally closed the match in straight sets.

    I think in reality as a neutral spectator I believe Novak was slightly the better player and also stats shows that. In fact Rafa converted 2 out of 3 break points which in itself is a good stats and in fact Novak was unfortunate that he could concert only 3 out of (maybe 8/9) break points. And also one player can’t defeat another player always easily, no matter how big the difference is between them. Just as an example some times Ferrer takes a set from Rafa and make the match very competitive that doesn’t mean that if they meet again Ferrer might actually defeat Rafa and the same holds here. Novak has been winning in straight sets against Rafa from very long time and yesterday it might have gone to 3 but that doesn’t change anything as Bellucci also took Novak to 3 sets.

    • alpha,

      I don’t know if you are new here or not, but that was an excellent post! Great point in turning it around and making us think about how we would have reacted! Well done!

      You have made a coherent argument and I appreciate it. It’s fair to ask what Rafa fans would have said if it was Novak who failed to convert all those set points!

      The best posts make us think and see things from a different point of view.

      Hats off to you! πŸ™‚

      • nny, as you are not a Rafa fan, you wouldn’t know how Rafa fans feel. At last you have come off the fence and admit you are not a Rafa fan.

        • Nadline,

          You shouldn’t talk about yourself that way! You can keep on saying the same lies about me, but it won’t change the truth. You are the one who is not a true Rafa fan, because you don’t follow rafa’s example. He’s got class and can acknowledge, as he did, that Novak made the great shots when he had to. Rafa has the best tennis brain and should know what he’s talking about.

          Your attacks on me have nothing to do with Rafa and I think that people here have figured that out.

          You disrespect Rafa all the time with your mean-spirited comments.

          It’s really sad.

    • rc,

      I am tired if being attacked whenever I say anything positive about Novak. I try to talk tennis but it’s always the same people who have to attack and say that I am not a Rafa fan. I appreciate how Ricky handles the site, but this type of thing had to stop because it is damaging.

      I am trying to focus on this great match, but have grown weary of being told that I am lying about being a Rafa fan. It’s the sane one or two people all the time.

  2. What is the problem in mentioning egg pod??? Novak speaks openly about it and says he uses it frequently in both US and Australia! He recommended it to other players! So we here are not allowed to speak about it?Please!

    And why bring Rafa into picture? Nobody is talking about doping here! It’s so disrespectful of Rafa! Unbelievable!!!

    • NNY actually hates Rafa. Now she thinks doping is to Rafa as egg pod is to Nole. Nole actually uses the pod so she is implying that Rafa is doping and his fans get annoyed when anyone mentions that. I am sick of NNY’s underhand hatred for Rafa whilst posing as a Rafa fan. I have NEVER seen her come to Rafa’s defence but say one thing against anyone else and she gets her hackles up.

      NNY, please don’t ever mention doping and Rafa in the same sentence again. Thank you.

      • nadline,

        Do not dare ever tell me what to say in this site! You are not the moderator and this us not your site! I called you out for hypocrisy! A quality that I do not admire In anyone.

        Do not threaten me verbally ever again on this site. Your instigating comments and hateful words are a disgrace!

        Natashao has trashed Novak for using the pod and pointed out that it is illegal in countries. The clear implication is that Novak us cheating.

        I do just sorry that people on this site have to read the trashy comments and vicious attacks that the two of you post. Nothing about tennis or respect for other players.

        It’s toxic and shameful,

      • Nadline hadn’t had her dose of instigative comments so she let it all out in a more hateful/instigative way than ever before! haha

        NNY’s defended Rafa countless times and her knowledge of tennis and rafa’s game allows her to do that in a way very few can on this website.

        The instigators have hardly ever written anything of substance that could defend Rafa or substantiate his plus points.

        Too bad the tennis discussion environment is polluted with these posts that have no purpose but to instigate and cause a stir.

        My advice to everyone: IGNORE as much as possible. Let’s stick to tennis as we have been for most part lately πŸ™‚

        • well said vr. however it is very hard to be on the receiving end of these kinds of comments constantly as nny is.
          mary was the worst! i get tired of saying things and it would be so much better if the hate speak wasn’t on the site. it’s a. personal and nothing to do with tennis or rafa for that matter. and b. harassment.

          • totally agreed, Amy… I also know it is so annoying and furstrating to be at the receiving end again and again. Not sure what the best way to deal with it is so I say don’t waste your precious energy. I totally understand your perspective.

            The good thing is that Tenngrand has grown a lot and now it has a lot of new posters too, which is very good. The influence of the instigators have reduced now but it is of course there.

            Glad to see fans of other players posting here! Let’s keep contributing by sharing our viewpoints on TENNIS. I am a tennis fanatic but have never quite spent time posting on any other tennis website/blog….I have been committed to tenngrand and its community and i guess that is not going to change anytime soon.

          • i meant defending nny from attacks vr. i have been attacked of course but not nearly so much. mary didn’t attack me until i defended nny and after that she singled me out constantly. glad she’s gone!!
            but i can’t see someone else being attacked ie nny and not say anything…

          • @Hawkeye actually adopted the policy of ignoring and it has kind of served him well overall.

            Amy, yeah I know, NNY has been targeted by a few.

            People like NNY, hawkeye and you are the reason I look forward to posting here.

          • same vr. you know i love your brilliant technical analyses as well as the fact you are just a really good guy!!
            still massively nervous about the early rounds of rg!!!

          • PS this site really misses chloro!!
            we are friends and email each other but the site would be better if he was here…

          • Thanks vr.

            Your tennis insight is unparalleled here and rivals the best analysis I’ve seen anywhere including mainstream media.

            I don’t mind having lively banter and smack talk with actual tennis fans such as abhirf and mikkers, but can’t be bothered with the cr@p from the infatuated who don’t like (or know about) tennis beyond a single player.

            Waste of time now. They are sad fans.

          • Hawkeye, you’re not only a humourous person but also very generous πŸ˜‰ Thanks a lot!

            Honestly, I only like posting because I know there are in knowledgeable tennis fans like you! You are not a blind follower and I am often counting on your views to really see how Rafa is actually doing! Keep offering your insights and giving us those brilliant hashtags πŸ˜‰

            @Amy, many thanks! Always look forward to reading your posts! And yeah, chloro should be here. I am sure he has his reasons but ask him to re-join πŸ™‚

          • Right back at you VR.

            Looking forward to FO after Rafa played so well in Rome.

            He has a real chance now. Nole seems wound tight as a drum. His behavior in Rome was surprising. If he’s at his very best, I don’t think today’s Rafa (or anyone else) will beat him. But that’s a BIG if.

            He is still the odds on favourite just, but I wouldn’t take those odds if I were a betting person.

          • AT 5:45 PM
            Ricky has moderated the posts of the troll named ‘hawks’ quite effectively, but, yeah, there is still room for improvement.

  3. RAFAEL NADAL: “I am playing well. No, no. I have been, I think, a beautiful match, a little bit unlucky for me today, so many chances in the first set.”

    Novak say he was fortunate and Rafa says he was unlucky, why can’t people accept that there was an element of luck in the match?

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