Rome QF previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Fognini, Cilic vs. Carreno Busta

Rafael Nadal and Fabio Fognini will be squaring off for the 14th time in their careers and for the second time in Rome when they meet again on Friday. Marin Cilic and Pablo Carreno Busta are also on the quarterfinal schedule.

(1) Rafael Nadal vs. Fabio Fognini

It was hard to see Nadal losing to Dominic Thiem in the Marid quarterfinals. That happened. But it is even harder to see Nadal losing in the quarterfinals of the Internazionali BNL d’Italia. Conditions suit the top-seeded Spaniard better in Rome, where he is a seven-time champion and has dropped a mere six games through two matches against Damir Dzumhur and Denis Shapovalov so far this week. Nadal is now 15-1 on clay in 2018 with titles in Monte-Carlo and Barcelona.

Additional good news for the world No. 2 is that Thiem is not the one looming in the quarters this time around. Fognini has also upset Nadal twice on clay, but those victories came in 2015 and the Italian is on a five-match losing streak in the head-to-head series–which he trails 10-3 overall. Nadal and Thiem had been on another collision course in Rome, but Fognini defeated the Austrian 6-4, 1-6, 6-3 in the second round following a straight-set rout of Gael Monfils and preceding a 6-4, 6-4 win over Peter Gojowyczk. This will likely be the end of the road for Italy’s last hope in the tournament, and it may not be competitive. Fognini is 1-10 in his last 11 sets against Nadal, who was ruthless against Shapovalov while losing only five points in eight service games.

Pick: Nadal in 2 losing 3-4 games

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(10) Pablo Carreno Busta vs. (4) Marin Cilic

Cilic and Carreno Busta will be facing each other for the third time in their careers and for the second time this season when they clash once more on Friday. Both of their previous encounters have gone Cilic’s way; 6-0, 7-6(4) on the indoor hard courts of Basel in 2016 and 6-7(2), 6-3, 7-6(0), 7-6(3) in the fourth round of the Australian Open a few months ago.

Carreno Busta’s style of play–which consists of generally few unforced errors but not overwhelming firepower–is conducive to competitive matches, of which he has already played three in Rome. The 11th-ranked Spaniard has advanced to the quarterfinals thanks to three-set victories over Jared Donaldson, Steve Johnson, and Aljaz Bedene. He is now 18-10 for the year, which includes consecutive semifinal showings in Miami, Barcelona, and Estoril. Cilic survived a thriller of his own against Ryan Harrison, outlasting the American in a third-set tiebreaker before making quicker 6-3, 6-4 work of Benoit Paire on Thursday. The fifth-ranked Croat is starting to find his clay-court form and should be able to dictate play to the extent that he can wear down an already fatigued opponent.

Pick: Cilic in 2

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53 Comments on Rome QF previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Fognini, Cilic vs. Carreno Busta

  1. Fognini fatigued; all the spring seems to have gone out of his step. He’s going to have to find something or else this will be over soon.

    • Joe Smith, Fognini’s shots are not unbelievable enough. 😉 😉 😉

      Rafa wins the last 2 sets in style.

      46 61 62

      Vamos Rafa!

      • I wouldn’t exactly say Nadal won in style. He mostly won because Fog couldn’t keep up the intensity. Rafa hit a lot of nice shots too, and did some great retrieving. But he was well below the standard he displayed in Monte Carlo, especially on serve.

        • Not according to Rafa. Rafa said he had to change tactics after the 1st set because he was giving Fog too much opportunity to go for his shots so he (Rafa) played more with his forehand.

        • You have to see who’s his opponent here, it’s Foggy in his own backyard. Had Rafa begun the match the way he did against Shapo, I would think there would be no contest and Rafa would win in straight sets.

          Rafa just had too much respect for Foggy; in the first set Rafa wasn’t doing much, just rallying and hoped that Foggy would lose patience and made errors. Not going to work as it’s proved, Foggy had come to play, not clowning around. It’s only after losing the first set that Rafa became more aggressive and upped his intensity. When he did that Foggy began to feel the pressure and started making more errors.

          The last two sets Rafa played more like his MC matches and more like his first two matches at Rome.

          • I have to add that for Rafa to play aggressive tennis, he has to feel confident, obviously he’s not that confident when facing Foggy,

  2. I doubt Foggy is fatigued. He can just up his level at will; Rafa has to serve it out now without any hiccup please!

  3. Well done to Rafa, and to Fog for pushing him a bit. Hard to believe Fabio only managed 3 games after the first set.

  4. Good win after all! Fog’s intensity went down but Rafa played better in the third, served well and placing his shots deep which was the key to his success in this match. Whenever Rafa hit short Fog would punish it! The same is to be expected from Novak tomorrow…

  5. Fortunately Rafa serves it out without hiccup. His first SF at Rome in four years!

    Foggy has a full head of hair, how I wish Rafa has that too! Rafa’s sister talking with Foggy’s sister, nice to see.

    • I saw the third set but recorded the match. I woke up to see Rafa in a third set and couldn’t go back to sleep. Now I can go back and see the match.

      Rafa dominated from the second set onward. I am okay with him being pushed and tested. It brings out his best.

      Now it’s either Novak or Nishi.

  6. Yess!!…..Well done Rafa!!….And thank u too to Stanley for wishing Rafa win today!heh heh….

    And this especially for VR…If u follow this thread today VR!…Just want to wish u a Happy Ramadhan Al Mubarak wherever u r…Hope u fasting today bro!…Oh wait!wait!…is that a nan chicken curry at your upper lip?hahaha..Gotcha!…

  7. Glad that Rafa managed to hold his nerve in the end and closed it efficiently!
    Of course that Rafa shouldn’t have slip the advantage he had in the first set,but I found it important for Rafa to be tested before RG,and today he surely was,by a very good Fognini.

    • Gaviria,

      I see it the sane way you do. Now I have to go back and watch the first two sets. But I think Rafa does need to be tested. I was shocked when I woke up and saw the score. Now I have to see it. But Rafa responds when he is down and fighting back is a good thing. He can’t always blow people off the court.

    • Well done Rafa 😭😭😭, I am crying because I am happy for him 😉.
      Well done.

      If he plays this way, Novak might win.
      N. Djokovic vs Rafa will be interesting, I hope it’s Novak so that we can enjoy the match 😉.

  8. So obvious Nadal was giving the people a show. Federer does it sometimes too. Tanks the first set because the match is a layup for them.

        • Oh baloney! Do you watch tennis at all? Rafa gives up nothing!

          Fog played really well and Rafa wasn’t yshbg the right tactics.

          It’s insulting to the intelligence of people here to even say something like that.

          You know nothing about tennis!

          • I know exactly when Rafa is playing, when he is struggling, and in form. I know what it looks like when he struggles and loses against Vinolas in 2016. I know what it looks like when he doesn’t show up at all like last week vs. Thiem. I know when he tries his best and loses to Federer. So, I know when he is just warming up in the first set or trying a decoy strategy. Elina Svitolina does it all the time. She is THAT good, she can use the first set to “warm up”. I’m a former athlete, i put 15 miles a day on my tennis shoes, still to this very day.

          • You know nothing! Unbelievable the crap some people post to make themselves feel important!

      • what you fail to realize is that players thinking ahead to the next match try to disguise their strategy for the film the other coaches will study that night.

  9. If Rafa got tested by Foggy so much..wonder how nervous he will be if he sees Novak tomorrow..I am worried about the Novak match a lot irrespective of how Novak is playing now..whenever he sees Rafa or Fed..he comes alive

      • I honestly don’t know what to think about Rafa meeting Novak. Nishi is already up 2-0 in the beginning of this match. He played Rafa tough on clay in the past.

        But I don’t want Novak seeing Rafa on the other side of the net and getting motivated.

          • I’m more concerned about him facing a healthy Nishikori. Djokovic is still up and down. But mainly down.

          • But like Sanju said ed,Novak will turned a beast mode if the other side of the net is Rafa or Roger..If he this good against Kei..I don’t want to imagine when he’s facing Rafa tomorrow…

            Tho,the good thing is he maybe play longer match than our Rafa..

          • ed,

            I hope you are right. Rsfa has played so well in the last year and a half and Novak has been all over the place.

        • NNY, whether Djoko is motivated or not, what’s more important is how Rafa plays. When Rafa is in top form, he’ll beat Djoko no matter what. Top form Rafa on clay > top form Djoko on clay; furthermore Djoko isn’t in top form yet on clay.

    • Sanju, Rafa more nervous facing Foggy than facing Djoko. With Djoko he knows what to expect, with Foggy you expect the unexpected. If Djoko is motivated when seeing Rafa across the net, then Foggy is even more motivated doing it in front of his home crowd.

  10. Foggy more a danger than Djoko now because you don’t know what to expect from Foggy. Rafa has played Djoko many times and he certainly knows what to expect. He’ll certainly not underestimate Djoko.

    Kei seems to be good for one set only; he couldn’t sustain a high level of play for two sets against the big four guys. Djoko will win this in three sets to face Rafa in the SF.

  11. Hopefully we get a Nadalovic contest,I’ve been hoping for a chance for Rafa to adjust the H2H with Djoko! Hopefully we can have the best match of the tournament,it depends on which version of Novak shows up.

  12. Kei and Djoko doing lots of hard hitting from the baseline and I feel Kei will lose playing like that. He’s not going to beat Djoko from the baseline; should move forward and add in some variations.

  13. I sometimes wonder why these players like to hit the ball right back at their opponents. I thought it’s wise to hit to the open court and make your opponent run to get the ball? I think it’s easier to hit CC than DTL hence players rather hit it CC to their opponents than take more risk hitting DTL.

    As expected, Djoko has MP now; Kei can’t match Djoko from the baseline.

    • Lucky, I’m sure you know this, but DTL is a *much* lower percentage shot. Not only do you have less court (less distance to hit into), but the net is higher. That’s why CC is the default in rallies.

      • I know, but against a formidable player who may be better than you, if you stay in your own comfort zone and unwilling to move out of it to take more risk, then where are your chances of beating your formidable opponent?

        Goffin vs Sasha for example, when he’s 3-2 up in the third set and was leading with a break, he should have turned up the aggression, go for the kill, maybe move inside the court to attack and so gave Sasha no time to defend or hit his formidable ground strokes. Instead he just stayed at the baseline to rally with Sasha and he then lost his own serve. Sasha was serving well and hitting his big ground strokes well in the third set, and he was the one who turned up the heat, hit a few good shots not only to break back but to hold and then break Goffin’s serve again to win the match. The 21 yo was playing better tennis, more gutsy and go for his shots, unlike Goffin.

        Both Kei and Goffin are known for taking the ball early and not afraid to step inside the court to attack, but against their more formidable opponents, they chose to stay back and rallied, knowing well their respective opponent was better from the baseline.

        I think an attacking player should take more risk, and beat your opponent by being quick and hit to the open spaces whenever possible to make life difficult for your opponents. Most players don’t take risk, hence prefer to go CC hitting back to opponent, hoping for opponent to miss or simply wanting to overpower the opponent.

        It’s the going for broke Shapo, who feared nothing, who just went for his shots – the lefty CC BH to the open spaces, that caught his opponents off guard.

  14. So, it’ll be Rafa vs Djoko SF, finally we get that, after Djoko not making it to meet Rafa on at least two occasions this clay season.

    • I am not looking forward to this. I only saw the first set of Novak/Nishi because I had to go out. Then I saw the score online.

      I am nervous about this. Novak sees Rafa across the net and will start salivating. But Rafa does know what to expect.

      • NNY, it’s time Rafa re-exert his authority on clay vs all these tough opponents. Beating top tenners like Thiem, Sasha, Dimi and Goffin, and young challengers like Tsitsipas and Shapo, and then seasoned players like Kei and Foggy, will do his confidence a world of good. Next challenge is Djoko. I was hoping to see Rafa reaching the final in Rome and meet and beat a Delpo there, that’ll complete an almost perfect clay warm ups before the FO. Delpo isn’t there, and if Rafa gets past Djoko, he’ll meet fellow top ten player – either Cilic or Sasha, still will be a good challenge before the FO.

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