Rafael Nadal and Fabio Fognini will be squaring off for the 14th time in their careers and for the second time in Rome when they meet again on Friday. Marin Cilic and Pablo Carreno Busta are also on the quarterfinal schedule.
(1) Rafael Nadal vs. Fabio Fognini
It was hard to see Nadal losing to Dominic Thiem in the Marid quarterfinals. That happened. But it is even harder to see Nadal losing in the quarterfinals of the Internazionali BNL d’Italia. Conditions suit the top-seeded Spaniard better in Rome, where he is a seven-time champion and has dropped a mere six games through two matches against Damir Dzumhur and Denis Shapovalov so far this week. Nadal is now 15-1 on clay in 2018 with titles in Monte-Carlo and Barcelona.
Additional good news for the world No. 2 is that Thiem is not the one looming in the quarters this time around. Fognini has also upset Nadal twice on clay, but those victories came in 2015 and the Italian is on a five-match losing streak in the head-to-head series–which he trails 10-3 overall. Nadal and Thiem had been on another collision course in Rome, but Fognini defeated the Austrian 6-4, 1-6, 6-3 in the second round following a straight-set rout of Gael Monfils and preceding a 6-4, 6-4 win over Peter Gojowyczk. This will likely be the end of the road for Italy’s last hope in the tournament, and it may not be competitive. Fognini is 1-10 in his last 11 sets against Nadal, who was ruthless against Shapovalov while losing only five points in eight service games.
Pick: Nadal in 2 losing 3-4 games
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(10) Pablo Carreno Busta vs. (4) Marin Cilic
Cilic and Carreno Busta will be facing each other for the third time in their careers and for the second time this season when they clash once more on Friday. Both of their previous encounters have gone Cilic’s way; 6-0, 7-6(4) on the indoor hard courts of Basel in 2016 and 6-7(2), 6-3, 7-6(0), 7-6(3) in the fourth round of the Australian Open a few months ago.
Carreno Busta’s style of play–which consists of generally few unforced errors but not overwhelming firepower–is conducive to competitive matches, of which he has already played three in Rome. The 11th-ranked Spaniard has advanced to the quarterfinals thanks to three-set victories over Jared Donaldson, Steve Johnson, and Aljaz Bedene. He is now 18-10 for the year, which includes consecutive semifinal showings in Miami, Barcelona, and Estoril. Cilic survived a thriller of his own against Ryan Harrison, outlasting the American in a third-set tiebreaker before making quicker 6-3, 6-4 work of Benoit Paire on Thursday. The fifth-ranked Croat is starting to find his clay-court form and should be able to dictate play to the extent that he can wear down an already fatigued opponent.
Pick: Cilic in 2
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who ya got?
Marin in three and Nadal in two losing 5-7
i see nadal losing 5 games here
I am going with Cilic in 3 sets.
Rafa in 2 sets losing 5-7 games.
PCB in 3
Rafa in 2 easy. Part of me would like to see Fognini win his home tournament but it ain’t gonna happen 🙁 Getting to the quarters in Rome is a very good result for him. I thought he’d lose to Monfils in R1.
Rafa in 3 with one bagel.PCB in three
PCB in 2, Rafa in 2 (easy)
Fognini in 3
Careno Busta in 3.
PCB. Cilic drew that second set longer than should of been…he still has that patellar tendonitis.
Careno Busta is best on clay even though his best results have been on hard “so far”. He is sneaking under the radar here probably due to having such a big hardcourt season and the adjustment back to clay. However, I suspect he might have found his feet again now and Cilic only just beat him in Melbourne. Cilic is stepping it up heding towards RG but I think this one may catch him out before he peaks.
…and as you mention, Cilic is still carrying an injury.
Rafa to get the job done,that’s all. Fognini is so skilled and if there’s a place he can go God mode it’s here in his homeground! He already showed some sparkling tennis against Thiem,but I think he won’t have the baseline consistency to defeat Rafa there. If Fog shows up and plays his very best(a BIG if),we will have an entertaining match,no doubt.
Would love to see Fognini show up and give everyone an entertaining match. If he could keep his focus he could give Rafa a run for his money, but Fog’s track record in Rome isn’t great, and he’s as apt to lose it completely as he is to be inspired by the crowd. He has to go for his shots, and not lose his head when they miss. If he can do that and avoid a total meltdown, I give him a 25% shot of pulling off an upset. Nadal is not at the level he was in MC, from what I’ve seen.
Joe!….For the 2nd straight days u talked about a possible upsets here!Hahahaha….And i bet,if Rafa win again today..the word ‘upset’ will appear again tomorrow & the next & the next…Hehehe…Okay!Okay!..I get it!…
I admit,The Fog is a very dangerous player…He can upped his game all of a sudden..can change direction with such precision..And Rafa maybe will get nervous at first…but,i still think that Rafa will prevail in 2 insyaallah…
Well, I did say it was 25% IF Fog plays well and doesn’t lose it. So I’m not exactly predicting an upset. But Fognini absolutely very dangerous and can hit players off the court when he tries and executes well. Plus, if he really comes to play, the crowd could be a factor. Even against Shapo, I felt the crowd wasn’t really pulling for Nadal. I think a lot of people would like to see him lose on clay, frankly.
Theiem was a +1000 dog and he beat Nadal last week. Fognini is only 700 dog. Still very low chance, but higher than thiem
Are you sure? From what I’ve seen, Rafa is playing even better at Rome. After the loss at Madrid, he looked determined to do well at Rome. I can see his intensity here, stepping onto the court and started serving well and hitting hard with full aggression. The only thing that’s not ideal is his ROS esp when having BP chances. I’ve not seen him served so well for a while now; in fact he serves very well here, better than when he first started the clay season at MC.
You’re right that Nadal is serving well, but the rest of his game is not as good imo, including his ground-strokes. He’s made more uncharacteristic errors than he did in MC. I think his level has tailed off since Madrid, though the conditions suit him better here. It’s just my sense, but I also think he’s feeling the pressure of expectation. It’s not easy when you’re expected to win every match, which is literally the case for Nadal every time he steps onto a clay court.
Nah, he made few UEs, what are you talking about? If anything, I can only see determination in his play. It’s totally different from Madrid, when he looked nervous, because he had the title and 1000 points to defend and losing that meant he would lose the no.1 ranking. Also he wasn’t hitting well his serves and groundstrokes; Moya said he was nervous even in practice!
Losing at Madrid may have relieved him from some pressure, as he’s expected to win every match on clay. He looks very comfortable at Rome, his day sessions make it even better for him, unlike in 2014 when he was given ALL night sessions and he struggled through them playing 3 setters in 3 of his 4 matches, and then, he had to play his only day match in the final, and lost it in three sets! What kind of scheduling was that??
Rafa in two; Cilic in two, most likely three.
Be calm, be focused, be confident, be strong, Rafa!
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DdeDLn2UwAEliVY.jpg
Fognini putting up a good fight,but Rafa fights tremendously to get the break. Vamos!
Rafa breaks. That’ll shut Petchey up a bit as he’s been harping on only about what Fognini can do to Rafa.
Rafa holds; now leads 4:2.
Yess!!..Wooohoooo!…Teach an arrogant dude a lesson today Rafa!!
😂 yes rafa will teach him a lesson soon just wait 😂.
Fognini is up 5-4 don’t worry just wait 🤣.
Yeah yeah Stanley!…I know!i know!…U just couldn’t wait for Rafa to lose….Well,the match is not finish yet!
Noooooooo I want Rafa to win 🤣, I really do 😂.
The match is not over so don’t give up Mira, Rafa will be back 😉🤣.
Fognini just got the break back,he’s playing well. During that 7th game he was telling the crowd to suck it up,how can he be so rude to his home crowd?
What a turnaround,from 1-4 to 5-4. Rafa making many mistakes from the baseline and practically gifted the break 4-4. Fognini will serve out for the set now.