Rafael Nadal and Fabio Fognini will be squaring off for the 14th time in their careers and for the second time in Rome when they meet again on Friday. Marin Cilic and Pablo Carreno Busta are also on the quarterfinal schedule.
(1) Rafael Nadal vs. Fabio Fognini
It was hard to see Nadal losing to Dominic Thiem in the Marid quarterfinals. That happened. But it is even harder to see Nadal losing in the quarterfinals of the Internazionali BNL d’Italia. Conditions suit the top-seeded Spaniard better in Rome, where he is a seven-time champion and has dropped a mere six games through two matches against Damir Dzumhur and Denis Shapovalov so far this week. Nadal is now 15-1 on clay in 2018 with titles in Monte-Carlo and Barcelona.
Additional good news for the world No. 2 is that Thiem is not the one looming in the quarters this time around. Fognini has also upset Nadal twice on clay, but those victories came in 2015 and the Italian is on a five-match losing streak in the head-to-head series–which he trails 10-3 overall. Nadal and Thiem had been on another collision course in Rome, but Fognini defeated the Austrian 6-4, 1-6, 6-3 in the second round following a straight-set rout of Gael Monfils and preceding a 6-4, 6-4 win over Peter Gojowyczk. This will likely be the end of the road for Italy’s last hope in the tournament, and it may not be competitive. Fognini is 1-10 in his last 11 sets against Nadal, who was ruthless against Shapovalov while losing only five points in eight service games.
Pick: Nadal in 2 losing 3-4 games
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(10) Pablo Carreno Busta vs. (4) Marin Cilic
Cilic and Carreno Busta will be facing each other for the third time in their careers and for the second time this season when they clash once more on Friday. Both of their previous encounters have gone Cilic’s way; 6-0, 7-6(4) on the indoor hard courts of Basel in 2016 and 6-7(2), 6-3, 7-6(0), 7-6(3) in the fourth round of the Australian Open a few months ago.
Carreno Busta’s style of play–which consists of generally few unforced errors but not overwhelming firepower–is conducive to competitive matches, of which he has already played three in Rome. The 11th-ranked Spaniard has advanced to the quarterfinals thanks to three-set victories over Jared Donaldson, Steve Johnson, and Aljaz Bedene. He is now 18-10 for the year, which includes consecutive semifinal showings in Miami, Barcelona, and Estoril. Cilic survived a thriller of his own against Ryan Harrison, outlasting the American in a third-set tiebreaker before making quicker 6-3, 6-4 work of Benoit Paire on Thursday. The fifth-ranked Croat is starting to find his clay-court form and should be able to dictate play to the extent that he can wear down an already fatigued opponent.
Pick: Cilic in 2
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Fantastic comeback from Fabio. He has been the better player from the baseline, and Rafa is not serving well. Let’s see if he can serve out the set.
Let’s see
Dont like the way Rafa plays today, more defensive than anything. He has too much respect for Foggy! His serve is poor, hardly steps inside the court to exert his aggression, just stays behind the baseline to rally all day!
It seems he had used up all his intensity in yesterday’s match! Not looking good now!
Fognini’s actually playing well,but yeah,Rafa’s playing to passive despite the good start. Fog raised his level and Rafa couldn’t step up to the challenge or play with more agression. Hopefully he turns this match around!
Rafa is too defensive, not playing his game! Fabio is playing well but Rafa is allowing him to dictate points which is exactly what Fabio wants… it’s all about Fabio hit or miss, not on Rafa’s racquet! Rafa needs to change that!
F. Fognini wins the 1st set 6-4 but the match is not over…😉
Fabio! Way to go, Fog. What’s happened so far is exactly what I thought was possible (though not likely) if Fognini plays the kind of tennis he’s capable of. Fog is at least as talented as Rafa, and watching this match it’s hard to believe that one is an all time great and the other has never come close to winning a slam. But it shows just how important mental strength is.
Fabio will take heart knowing he’s beaten Nadal on clay before, but now it gets hard because Rafa is going to come back even stronger.
Rafa is going to lose this, it seems he’s wary of Foggy. A very disappointing set of tennis from Rafa when Foggy just plays his usual game, not particularly special. Rafa doesnt offer much resistance to Foggy.
That’s not Fognini’s usual game, Lucky. He’s playing very well. Rafa is having an off day, but it’s also a loss of confidence a bit, I think.
If Rafa doesnt up his level in the second set, he’s going to lose this match!
Don’t give up, Rafa will be back.
Dont understand Rafa’s serve, why he can go from good to bad overnight?
Maybe Rafa’s feeling the pressure of getting the N.1 ranking back,it’s strange indeed.
The truth is that Fognini can push Rafa really hard,especially if Rafa plays with almost no fire on his game like today.
Rafa has started well don’t give up OK.
And Rafa serving poorly and not having any advantage on his own serve makes it difficult to take control. Fabio is motivated while Rafa seems complacent with this situation. Rafa needs to step it up in all aspects of his game!
Rafa staying so far back so he has to do all the running; why cant he move forward immediately after returning serve?
Foggy is going to drop shot him often and makes him runs like crazy. Why Rafa always go CC with his FH and hits right back at Foggy? Why stinge on the FH DTL??
Rafa making life difficult for himself, should have hung on to the service break in the first set to win it, and he would be on his way to victory in the second set.
This match is really on Fognini’s racquet. He’s the one dictating play, and Rafa isn’t doing much to change that dynamic. Nadal may yet win the match, but it will be more Fabio losing it than anything, if the play continues like this.
Fabio starting to go away mentally in this second set. Losing focus and intensity. Triple break point for Rafa.
Rafa finally flattening the backhand and the errors are coming from Fabio racket.
Honestly, the last thing I want to see is another grueling three setter with Rafa losing in the end, because I know Fog will give it his all in the third and Rafa isn’t making any significant changes in his tactics to turn the whole match in his favor…from what I know Fog will let the second set go and then make the third a living hell for Rafa…
Yeah,that’s classic standard from Fognini,did the same against Thiem…
Well done Rafa, second set 6-1.
Now the battle begins.
3rd set 🤔.
Yep, Fabio is a master at winning 3 set matches in which he tanks the 2nd set.
Exactly! I dont understand Rafa’s mentality. Why must he wait till he loses the first set then he decides to up his intensity? Why cant he do like yesterday and game on once he steps inside the court?
I sometimes hope that Rafa is a bit cocky like Djoko, that way he’ll be full of confidence when he steps onto the court. Rafa just shows too much respect for his opponents.
Foggy will give his best in the third set, he knows he has his chances.
lucky, you are right. a bit of swagger will do Rafa a lot of good.
Nadal has plenty of swagger when he’s winning. When he’s not, he loses confidence.
Please give me a break with this! Rafa did not lose confidence losing to Thiem. Moya said it – Rafa is human.
Rafa, please hold from now until the end!
Vamos!
I don’t think Nadal picked up his intensity much in the 2nd set; it was much like the first, but Fog didn’t play as well. But now in the 3rd, Rafa has definitely picked it up. Triple break point again.
Nadal up a break, serving 2-1. This is the crucial game, I think. If he holds he should win the match.
Finally Rafa being more agressive and consolidating the break.
Vamos!