Rafael Nadal and Fabio Fognini will be squaring off for the 14th time in their careers and for the second time in Rome when they meet again on Friday. Marin Cilic and Pablo Carreno Busta are also on the quarterfinal schedule.
(1) Rafael Nadal vs. Fabio Fognini
It was hard to see Nadal losing to Dominic Thiem in the Marid quarterfinals. That happened. But it is even harder to see Nadal losing in the quarterfinals of the Internazionali BNL d’Italia. Conditions suit the top-seeded Spaniard better in Rome, where he is a seven-time champion and has dropped a mere six games through two matches against Damir Dzumhur and Denis Shapovalov so far this week. Nadal is now 15-1 on clay in 2018 with titles in Monte-Carlo and Barcelona.
Additional good news for the world No. 2 is that Thiem is not the one looming in the quarters this time around. Fognini has also upset Nadal twice on clay, but those victories came in 2015 and the Italian is on a five-match losing streak in the head-to-head series–which he trails 10-3 overall. Nadal and Thiem had been on another collision course in Rome, but Fognini defeated the Austrian 6-4, 1-6, 6-3 in the second round following a straight-set rout of Gael Monfils and preceding a 6-4, 6-4 win over Peter Gojowyczk. This will likely be the end of the road for Italy’s last hope in the tournament, and it may not be competitive. Fognini is 1-10 in his last 11 sets against Nadal, who was ruthless against Shapovalov while losing only five points in eight service games.
Pick: Nadal in 2 losing 3-4 games
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(10) Pablo Carreno Busta vs. (4) Marin Cilic
Cilic and Carreno Busta will be facing each other for the third time in their careers and for the second time this season when they clash once more on Friday. Both of their previous encounters have gone Cilic’s way; 6-0, 7-6(4) on the indoor hard courts of Basel in 2016 and 6-7(2), 6-3, 7-6(0), 7-6(3) in the fourth round of the Australian Open a few months ago.
Carreno Busta’s style of play–which consists of generally few unforced errors but not overwhelming firepower–is conducive to competitive matches, of which he has already played three in Rome. The 11th-ranked Spaniard has advanced to the quarterfinals thanks to three-set victories over Jared Donaldson, Steve Johnson, and Aljaz Bedene. He is now 18-10 for the year, which includes consecutive semifinal showings in Miami, Barcelona, and Estoril. Cilic survived a thriller of his own against Ryan Harrison, outlasting the American in a third-set tiebreaker before making quicker 6-3, 6-4 work of Benoit Paire on Thursday. The fifth-ranked Croat is starting to find his clay-court form and should be able to dictate play to the extent that he can wear down an already fatigued opponent.
Pick: Cilic in 2
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