Rome QF previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Fognini, Cilic vs. Carreno Busta

Rafael Nadal and Fabio Fognini will be squaring off for the 14th time in their careers and for the second time in Rome when they meet again on Friday. Marin Cilic and Pablo Carreno Busta are also on the quarterfinal schedule.

(1) Rafael Nadal vs. Fabio Fognini

It was hard to see Nadal losing to Dominic Thiem in the Marid quarterfinals. That happened. But it is even harder to see Nadal losing in the quarterfinals of the Internazionali BNL d’Italia. Conditions suit the top-seeded Spaniard better in Rome, where he is a seven-time champion and has dropped a mere six games through two matches against Damir Dzumhur and Denis Shapovalov so far this week. Nadal is now 15-1 on clay in 2018 with titles in Monte-Carlo and Barcelona.

Additional good news for the world No. 2 is that Thiem is not the one looming in the quarters this time around. Fognini has also upset Nadal twice on clay, but those victories came in 2015 and the Italian is on a five-match losing streak in the head-to-head series–which he trails 10-3 overall. Nadal and Thiem had been on another collision course in Rome, but Fognini defeated the Austrian 6-4, 1-6, 6-3 in the second round following a straight-set rout of Gael Monfils and preceding a 6-4, 6-4 win over Peter Gojowyczk. This will likely be the end of the road for Italy’s last hope in the tournament, and it may not be competitive. Fognini is 1-10 in his last 11 sets against Nadal, who was ruthless against Shapovalov while losing only five points in eight service games.

Pick: Nadal in 2 losing 3-4 games

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(10) Pablo Carreno Busta vs. (4) Marin Cilic

Cilic and Carreno Busta will be facing each other for the third time in their careers and for the second time this season when they clash once more on Friday. Both of their previous encounters have gone Cilic’s way; 6-0, 7-6(4) on the indoor hard courts of Basel in 2016 and 6-7(2), 6-3, 7-6(0), 7-6(3) in the fourth round of the Australian Open a few months ago.

Carreno Busta’s style of play–which consists of generally few unforced errors but not overwhelming firepower–is conducive to competitive matches, of which he has already played three in Rome. The 11th-ranked Spaniard has advanced to the quarterfinals thanks to three-set victories over Jared Donaldson, Steve Johnson, and Aljaz Bedene. He is now 18-10 for the year, which includes consecutive semifinal showings in Miami, Barcelona, and Estoril. Cilic survived a thriller of his own against Ryan Harrison, outlasting the American in a third-set tiebreaker before making quicker 6-3, 6-4 work of Benoit Paire on Thursday. The fifth-ranked Croat is starting to find his clay-court form and should be able to dictate play to the extent that he can wear down an already fatigued opponent.

Pick: Cilic in 2

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20 Comments on Rome QF previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Fognini, Cilic vs. Carreno Busta

  1. Dkoko said he will embrace the opportunity n will try to play his best tomorrow…is feeling very well and is loving the conditions

    • MA,

      I love Rafa’s honesty! We both feel the same way!

      But I have to believe that Rafa knew at some
      point he would face Novak. So I expect him to come out ready.

      • Yes Nny!…Rafa always respect Novak & his greatness..Even when Novak still lost in the abyss somewhere in the past..Rafa will always came out with statements that he believes Novak will find his mojo back one day…

        And he’s right!Therefore,i believe Rafa always prepared himself the possibility of meeting ‘this’ Novak someday…And you’re right nny!…he will be ready!

        Vamos Rafa!!

  2. It’s better for Rafa to meet Djoko on clay than on the HC. They’ll have to meet sooner or later so why not now? If Rafa plays his best tennis, he’ll beat Djoko on clay; but if he stays back and rally with Djoko like he did vs Foggy, then he’s making life difficult for himself.

    He plays and serves like vs Shapo than he’ll make life easier for himself; if he engages in baseline rallies like Kei did, then he’s in for a long day.

  3. TBH,I’m more worried about Rafa facing Foggy than facing Djoko. Foggy had the whole arena supporting him and I do feel Rafa could be affected by that sometimes and got nervous.

    I find Rafa’s mentality rather strange, when playing for his country in DC, he’ll play his best no matter it’s not a home tie and with the home crowd supporting their own players. However, he would feel a bit nervous in his own singles matches vs a home hero, I noticed, and had to go the distance to tough it out and sometimes losing it – lost vs Shapo at Montreal last year, and of course lost to Fed at Basel; even had to go the distance vs Dansevic of Canada at Montreal one year and now vs Foggy at Rome. These are just my own observations nd opinions, of course they may not be correct.

  4. MA

    This is Djokovic Mark II who is not the player of yesteryear who could strike the fear of god in his opponents.

    • ed!…haha…Yeah!This is not the Djokovic of yesteryear!…But,boy!…to see him vs Kei make me really scared!!I swear!!

      • If I was a rafan I won’t watch the match between Rafa vs N. Djokovic tomorrow because Rafa will break my heart 😭.

  5. Although you can never completely count out Novak, no matter how poorly he’s played in the last year or so. However…. I will be surprised if Rafa loses. It’s taken an insanely high-level-Novak to take down a well-oiled Rafa on clay. Novak is not nearly at that level right now, and hasn’t been at that level for a couple years now. So I agree with Ricky’s prediction. Maybe Novak can take a set, make it competitive? We shall see.

    • Well said Kevin.

      Djoko needed so much effort just to barely got past Kei, and Kei was no Rafa! Whether Djoko remains confident or not when facing Rafa, there’s still something lacking in his game, he fought hard no doubt but Kei wasn’t of Djoko’s caliber and Kei himself was also coming back from injury and had spent many hours on the court already.

      We caught a glimpse too of how a top form Kei may play in future ( judging from his first set performance), it’s just that he couldn’t continue with that form for two consecutive sets and hence Djoko could up his level to win the second set.

      As long as Rafa isn’t going walkabout during the match, I feel he will edge past Djoko, in straight sets – may be two tight sets or one easy and one tight set. If Rafa goes walkabout, then Djoko will have a chance to win one set.

      A top form Djoko needed three sets to beat Rafa in 2014 final (and Rafa was hard done by the poor scheduling when he had to play all night matches before the final), this Rafa > 2014 Rafa and this Djoko < 2014 Djoko. So, Rafa in straight with no walkabouts (he shouldn’t against Djoko his formidable rival).

    • The only well oiled Rafa that Djoko took down was the one at MC2013 I feel. Rafa hardly well oiled on 2011 clay after losing to Djoko at IW/Miami B2B final. His 2014 form was also questionable after losing at QF to Ferrer at MC and to Almagro at Barcelona, the players he owned all along on clay. His 2015/2016 losses – he was hardly himself in those years.

      Nevertheless, not taking any credit away from Djoko, whether Rafa’s clay court tennis is well oiled or not, it’s a formidable task to take him down on clay. Djoko has done well having seven wins against Rafa on clay.

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