Alexander Zverev went back-to-back last summer at the Citi Open and Rogers Cup, and he has a chance to accomplish the same feat after triumphing once again in Washington, D.C. Zverev won’t have to contend with Roger Federer at the Canada Masters this time around, as Federer is resting up before returning later in the hard-court swing. Andy Murray is also out, but an otherwise impressive field includes Rafael Nadal, Juan Martin Del Potro, Kevin Anderson, and four-time champion Novak Djokovic.
Rogers Cup
Where: Toronto, Canada
Surface: Hard
Prize money: $5,315,025
Points: 1000
Top seed: Rafael Nadal
Defending champion: Alexander Zverev
Draw analysis: At first glance, Zverev’s draw for his title defense is a friendly one. His nearest seed is Jack Sock and the other top-eight seed in the bottom quarter of the bracket is a struggling Dominic Thiem. However, Djokovic—who missed a bye in the first round by one spot—also landed in this section and is a more likely quarterfinal foe for Zverev than Thiem. The recent Wimbledon champion opens with Hyeon Chung, while Thiem likely awaits an in-form Stefanos Tsitsipas in his second-rounder.
Anderson and Djokovic, who are playing doubles together in Toronto, are on a collision course for the semis in what would be a rematch of the Wimbledon final. Anderson’s section also includes Grigor Dimitrov, David Goffin, and Milos Raonic. Goffin and Raonic have to go head-to-head in an intriguing first-rounder, while other interesting ones pit Roberto Bautista Agut against Ryan Harrison and Marco Cecchinato against Frances Tiafoe.
At the top of the draw, Nadal looks to make amends for what he called his worst loss of the season to Denis Shapovalov at this tournament last summer. A strong unseeded contingent in the Spaniard’s quarter is highlighted by Stan Wawrinka, Borna Coric, Kyle Edmund, Benoit Paire, and Jared Donaldson. Following his meltdown in D.C., Paire will battle Donaldson for the right to meet Nadal in round two. Sixth-seeded Marin Cilic could be Nadal’s quarterfinal adversary, but he has cooled off in recent weeks on the heels of a hot first half of the season.
Shapovalov has to like his chances of making more noise at the Rogers Cup, perhaps even to the extent of making another semifinal run. The Canadian’s nearest seeds are Fabio Fognini and Del Potro, with both potentially fatigued after a long week in Los Cabos (Fognini beat Del Potro in the final). Recent Atlanta champion John Isner has enjoyed some much-needed rest after losing right away in Washington, D.C., so he should be able to navigate a soft section and reach the quarters to face either Del Potro or Shapovalov.
First-round upset alert: Milos Raonic over (10) David Goffin. Raonic has been inconsistent throughout his career at home in Canada, but he is a former runner-up at this tournament (2013 when it was in Montreal) and he has reached the quarterfinals in each of his last three trips to Toronto (2012, 2014, 2016). Although the world No. 29 has not been at his best of late, Goffin has won only two matches since the French Open. Raonic, who is 2-2 lifetime in the head-to-head series, won their most recent hard-court encounter at the 2016 Indian Wells Masters.
Hot: Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, Alexander Zverev, Juan Martin Del Potro, Kevin Anderson, John Isner, Fabio Fognini, Frances Tiafoe, Marco Cecchinato, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Matthew Ebden
Cold: Grigor Dimitrov, Dominic Thiem, Jack Sock, Nick Kyrgios, Stan Wawrinka, Filip Krajinovic, Hyeon Chung, David Ferrer
Quarterfinal predictions: Rafael Nadal over Borna Coric, Denis Shapovalov over John Isner, Milos Raonic over Kevin Anderson, and Novak Djokovic over Alexander Zverev
Semifinals: Nadal over Shapovalov and Djokovic over Raonic
Final: Djokovic over Nadal
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