Paris SF preview and pick: Nadal vs. Ferrer

It will be an all-Spanish affair when Rafael Nadal and David Ferrer do battle in the Paris semifinals on Saturday. Either Novak Djokovic or Roger Federer awaits the winner.

Rafael Nadal and David Ferrer will be squaring off for the 25th time in their careers when they meet in the semifinals of the BNP Paribas Masters on Saturday.

Nadal is dominating the head-to-head series 20-4, including nine wins in a row and 16 the last 17. However, they have faced each other only six times on hard courts and they have split those six encounters. Four of Nadal’s victories over his fellow Spaniard have come this season, although he lost sets in both Madrid and Rome.

Ferrer does not have much going for him as he heads into what will be another tall task against Nadal, but he at least has something from which to take heart in addition to his past history versus his countryman on the hard stuff. While this is not Ferrer’s best surface, either, he captured his first and only Masters 1000 title at this same Paris event last year. Furthermore, the world No. 3 is heating back up after a post-Wimbledon slump that lasted most of the summer and fall aside from a quarterfinal run at the U.S. Open. Ferrer finished runner-up in both Stockholm and Valencia and so far this week he has dismissed Lukas Rosol, Gilles Simon, and Tomas Berdych.

Of course, nobody has been more consistent or even more dominant than Nadal in 2013. The world No. 1 owns 10 titles and four have come on hard courts. He has suffered two of his five defeats this fall, but those setbacks came against Novak Djokovic and Juan Martin Del Potro–in Beijing and Shanghai, respectively. Nadal booked his spot in the Paris last four with straight-set scalps of Marcel Granollers, Jerzy Janowicz, and Richard Gasquet.

Ferrer obviously does not have the necessary firepower that is required to match up relatively well against Nadal, plus he is not at the very top of his game right now, so it’s hard to expect an ultra-competitive match. At the same time, this surface allows the underdog to play more inside the court against Nadal and hit balls at least close to his strike zone as opposed to up around shoulder height. The top seed should win without too much trouble, but not before plenty of entertaining baseline rallies ensue.

Pick: Nadal in 2 losing more than 7 games

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