Paris R3 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Thompson, Rublev vs. Wawrinka

Rafael Nadal will be in action at the Paris Masters on Thursday against Aussie Jordan Thompson following a tough opener. Vienna champion Andrey Rublev will take on Stan Wawrinka in other round-three action.

(1) Rafael Nadal vs. Jordan Thompson

Nadal had a rough start to the Paris Masters. He dropped the first set to friend and countryman Feliciano Lopez and only just scraped out a three-set win. Of course, indoor hard courts are not Nadal’s specialty. In fact, the Spaniard has never won the Paris Masters nor the indoor event at the Nitto Finals.

Still he isn’t facing his toughest test in Thompson. The Aussie got to the round of 16 at the U.S. Open a couple of months ago, but that was largely thanks to a favorable draw. Since then, he hasn’t managed to win more than a match at a time until this week. Thompson did have a good upset victory over Borna Coric in the second round, but it seems unlikely that he’s going to do so a second day in a row against Nadal.

Expect the world No. 2 to perform better on Thursday than he did in the second round.

Cheryl pick: Nadal in 2

Ricky: Nadal in 2 losing 5-7 games


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How many games will Thompson win?

(5) Andrey Rublev vs. (12) Stan Wawrinka

This one between Rublev and Wawrinka might be the match of the day at the Paris Masters. Rublev has absolutely been on fire all year. The Russian has pocketed a tour-high five titles and just snagged one in a packed field in Vienna. A high level is expected from Rublev again on Thursday, obviously.

Stan Wawrinka is a bit more of a wild card. The Swiss has been all over the place. He had a great start to the season in Melbourne, but since tennis’ return from the COVID layoff he’s hardly won a pair of matches at a time. Wawrinka’s match against Tommy Paul in the second round casts a bit of doubt on his form. The veteran got off to a sluggish start that he won’t be able to afford against Rublev.

Rublev has to be the favorite in this one. Wawrinka and his backhand should never be completely dismissed, but the Rublev machine is just rolling right now.

Cheryl pick: Rublev in 3

Cheryl pick: Rublev in 2


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WWW: Rublev vs. Wawrinka?

28 Comments on Paris R3 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Thompson, Rublev vs. Wawrinka

  1. Rublev is a very exciting young player. I’ve been watching him improve steadily and surely this year. In 2.
    Cheryl hedging her bets, I see 😉

  2. I’m sure Wawrinka’s big ego will think he can win but he’ll need more than a big ego and competitive spirit to beat a top 5 player in the world right now.

  3. There is some improvement in Wawrinka this week. Thinking Rublev in 3, guessing Stan will be ready for it.

    Rafa in 2. Fun to watch Rafa vs Lopez. Rafa’s confidence grew by the minute. I like the green and pick Nike kit too.

    • Agreed on all points! Feli played quite well for a 40 yo! And Rafa’s kit rocks! Well, females tend to think it rocks, males not so much. 🙂 At least they aren’t flowery or plaid (ugh, I did hate those grandpa shorts).

  4. Lopez was very determined and had a very good day yesterday. He ran like a teenager and stayed very well in the rallies. He was extremely upset that he lost. Strangely enough, Rafa’s best friends are the most motivated against him (Ferrer, Lopez, even Schwartzmann).
    Rafa was rusty as most expected, his serve basically saved him. He made a ton of easy mistakes, not at all usual for him. Of course he started playing like it was clay, but he made the necessary adjustments along the way – including advancing a whooping 4m on the second serve return.
    However, by the end of the match Nadal started “feeling” the ball, so I expect him to play much better from now on.
    Definitely the 1000th ATP win caused some extra pressure, now he can relax a bit and win the damned thing.
    I wouldn’t be surprised if Rafa is branded as indoor HC specialist by the end of this season. His troubles in these conditions are largely caused by fatigue and injuries.

    • Zverev vs Mannarino today had to be one of the most boring matches I have ever…finally Zverev won in 3 with no need of a tie-break.

      Now the final act Stan vs Andrey. And they are both ripping through it after a bit wobbly start from Stan the first set. Stan can still really blast a forehand and rip a backhand 😀 I’m thinking Andrey has a niggle here and there. Would like to see Stan win this even though I like Rublev more. But Rublev has lost a bit of his sharpness. He needs rest before NITTO. Stan needs a workout! Stan is improving as he keeps going and winning. Like to see Stan advance another round.

  5. Oh goodness me. Get used to it Rublev. Better that you lose to Stan now. Can’t win them all, kid. Old fox caught you.

    Stan could be awesome again in 2021 if he sticks to his diet!

    • Rublev took the loss to Wawrinka fairly well. Crossed himself and looked to the heavens in acceptance.

      Match-ups tomorrow:
      Rafa v Carreno Busta
      Zverev v Wawrinka
      Schwartzman v Medvedev
      Ugo Humbert v Milos Raonic. Fingers crossed that it won’t be a bludgeoning of wee Ugo.

  6. Glad Meddy is doing well again, and Stan etc. I just hope certain players don’t tank matches at this point …should never happen

  7. Feli is always good on indoor hard courts, his S&V game suits the surface, giving his opponent very little time to react or to counter his game. Rafa couldn’t handle it initially but as usual found a way to win.

    Thompson was playing very aggressive tennis after losing the first set 6-1 to Rafa; he’s chasing down everything and Rafa surprising losing some long rallies to him.

    I’m glad Stan beats Rublev, as I think Rublev will be the one giving Rafa the most problems if they meet. Rublev plays a quick and aggressive attacking tennis, it’s so hard to defend against him. He made Stan ran so much along the baseline doing all the defending.

    It’s hard to defend against someone so aggressive and he’s smart to stay close to the centre of the baseline and so he’s able to dictate play, hitting to the left or to the right at will, hence Stan was made to do all the running.

    Rublev will be a force to be reckoned with if he continues to play like that; I think to beat him one has to move forward instead of staying at the baseline all the time and so not let him dictate play. He’s combining Fed’s aggression with Djoko’s baseline dictating play, very smart.

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