Two showdowns with major World Tour Finals implications will take place during third-round action on Thursday in Paris. Marin Cilic and David Goffin are both in contention, while Tomas Berdych faces a must-win situation against Gilles Simon.
(9) Marin Cilic vs. (8) David Goffin
It will be a showdown with massive World Tour Finals implications when Cilic and Goffin collide in round three of the BNP Paribas Masters on Thursday. Goffin not only has to win this match but he must also reach at least the final and may even have to win the title depending on other results. The 12th-ranked Belgian is actually a big reason why Cilic has not already locked up a spot in London. He is 3-0 lifetime against the Croat and all three victories have come this season, including two with significant points at stake. Goffin, who also beat Cilic in a Davis Cup first-round contest, prevailed 7-6(4), 6-2 in the Indian Wells quarterfinals and 7-5, 6-4 earlier this fall in the Tokyo semis.
Goffin, a back-to-back semifinalist in Indian Wells and Miami, was outstanding this year through Wimbledon but his London chances have taken a hit of late. A first-round U.S. Open loss to Jared Donaldson did not help, nor did having to face an unseeded Juan Martin Del Potro in the Basel second round (Del Potro cruised 7-5, 6-3). This week’s eighth seed kept his chances alive by beating Nicolas Mahut 7-6(5), 6-3 in his opener on Wednesday. Cilic, who just moved into qualifying position last week by capturing the Basel title, improved his situation even further with a 7-6(7), 6-2 defeat of compatriot Ivo Karlovic on Wednesday. The world No. 10, whose season is highlighted by a title in Cincinnati, is riding a wave of confidence and should just about lock up his place in London by winning this match.
Pick: Cilic in 3
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Gilles Simon vs. (10) Roberto Bautista Agut
Berdych must reach the semifinals in order to have a shot at qualifying for London, and even then he would still need help from Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and either Goffin or Cilic (he would much prefer a Goffin victory in that match). The world No. 11 has slumped since Wimbledon and is out of the top 10 for the first time since he finished runner-up at the All-England Club in 2010. Berdych just barely stayed alive in the 2016 race on Tuesday, when he outlasted Joao Sousa 6-3, 3-6, 7-5.
Up next for the No. 7 seed on Thursday is a 13th career meeting with Simon, who leads the head-to-head series 7-5. It is all tied up 5-5 on hard courts, with Berdych having taken three of their five indoor encounters. The two veterans have faced each other once at this Paris event, where Simon prevailed 6-4, 6-4 in the 2012 quarterfinals. Simon is wrapping up a decent 2016 campaign in which he is 33-25 and coming down the stretch at 23rd in the rankings. The Frenchman treated the home crowd to a thriller on Wednesday, when he saved three match points (all on his opponent’s serve) to beat Roberto Bautista Agut 2-6, 6-1, 7-6(6). On a relatively slow surface and with home-court advantage, Simon should have a good chance of upending an out-of-form Berdych and ending the Czech’s season prematurely.
Pick: Simon in 3
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