Paris final preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Medvedev

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One of the best current rivalries in tennis will add another chapter when Novak Djokovic and Daniil Medvedev battle for the Rolex Paris Masters title on Sunday afternoon.

The head-to-head series could not be any closer through nine matches, with Djokovic leading it 5-4. Medvedev is an impressive 4-2 in their last six encounters. This marks their third consecutive meeting with a title at stake, and their two previous showdowns came on the Grand Slam stage. Djokovic triumphed 7-5, 6-2, 6-2 at the Australian Open early in 2021 before Medvedev stopped the Serb one win short of the calendar-year slam with a 6-4, 6-4, 6-4 upset at the U.S. Open.

Djokovic understandably took some time off following that disappointment; in fact, Paris is his first appearance on the fall swing. The 34-year-old has already achieved what he set out to do this week: clinch the year-end No. 1 ranking for a record seventh time. Djokovic secured it with a 3-6, 6-0, 7-6(5) victory over Hubert Hurkacz on Saturday. That semifinal result was preceded by defeats of Marton Fucsovics and Taylor Fritz in addition to a walkover from Gael Monfils.

Medvedev’s title defense began in lackluster fashion even though he did enough to scrap past Ilya Ivashka, Sebastian Korda, and Hugo Gaston. The second-ranked Russian picked up the pace in a major way on Saturday, when he humiliated Alexander Zverev 6-4, 6-4.

It’s hard to see Djokovic being especially motivated at this point in a long season, especially now that the top spot is secured. Even if Paris’ top seed is in peak mental condition, you would still have to like Medvedev’s chances. His performance against Zverev was incredible and last year already proved that the 25-year-old can handle these conditions without any trouble.

Look for Medvedev to go back-to-back in Bercy and even up an entertaining head-to-head history at 5-5.

Pick: Medvedev in 3

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