Nitto ATP Finals title match preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Zverev

Novak Djokovic and Alexander Zverev will be squaring off for the fourth time in their careers and for the second time this week when they battle for the Nitto ATP Finals title on Sunday evening.

Only at this prestigious event can one head-to-head matchup take place twice, and that will be the case after Djokovic hammered Zverev 6-4, 6-1 during Group A round-robin action on Tuesday. The Serb also steamrolled 6-2, 6-1 at the Shanghai Masters this fall, so the alarm bells are ringing loud and clear for Zverev even though he once upset Djokovic 6-4, 6-3 in last season’s Rome final.

As if those scorelines are not daunting enough, Djokovic’s form also makes him an overwhelming favorite in this one. The top seed has improved to 35-2 in his last 37 matches with straight-set victories in London over Zverev, John Isner, Marin Cilic, and Kevin Anderson. Cilic at least managed to force one tiebreaker, but Anderson did not come close to doing that in the semifinals on Saturday night, when Djokovic cruised 6-2, 6-2.

The third time at the O2 Arena has been the charm so far for Zverev, who did not advance out of round-robin competition in his two previous appearances. Despite his setback against Djokovic, the 21-year-old German beat Cilic 7-6(5), 7-6(1) and Isner 7-6(5), 6-3 to set up a semifinal showdown against Roger Federer. With his best performance of the week, Zverev ousted the Swiss 7-5, 7-6(5) to reach his sixth final of the 2018 campaign.

“I’m expecting quite a different matchup for us tomorrow than what it was in the group stage,” Djokovic assured, “even though the win in the group stage against him few days ago can definitely serve as (a) kind of mental advantage a little bit coming into tomorrow’s match, of course. The experience of playing so many matches at this level….”

“Novak right now is the best player in the world,” Zverev said. “It’s very tough to beat him; he’s barely lost a match in the last six months. He’s playing amazing tennis. You have to play your best game to even have a chance; I hope I’ll be able to do that.”

Zverev’s best–and only–chance is to serve incredibly well and play his way into tiebreakers, where he is 3-0 so far during this tournament. As for the underdog’s hopes in the return game, well, Djokovic has not been broken all week. The world No. 1 dropped six total service points against Isner, five against Cilic, 14 against Zverev, and seven against Anderson. He is winning a ridiculous 82.9 percent of his service points through four matches, including 86.7 percent against the three opponents other than Zverev.

All signs point to the 2018 season concluding in appropriate fashion: with the best player on tour–by far–since the start of Wimbledon coasting again in straight sets.

Pick: Djokovic in 2

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