Nitto ATP Finals round-robin preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Sinner

Novak Djokovic and Jannik Sinner will be going head-to-head at the Nitto ATP Finals on Tuesday.

Nobody will be shocked if this isn’t the last time they face each other in 2023.

Djokovic and Sinner are set for a Green Group round-robin showdown, and based on each man’s current form it is without question a potential preview of Sunday’s championship match. They are hands down the two hottest players on tour; Djokovic has not lost a single match since Wimbledon, while Sinner is 14-1 since the U.S. Open.

Although Djokovic is an obvious favorite as the No. 1 player in the world and a six-time winner of the Nitto ATP Finals, this is a great opportunity for Sinner. The 22-year-old Italian has soared to No. 4 in the world and he is wrapping up his 2023 campaign with home-court advantage in front of his Italian fans. Sinner treated them to a perfect start on Sunday, when he improved his season record to 58-14 with a 6-4, 6-4 beatdown of Stefanos Tsitsipas.

Sinner heads into Tuesday’s contest winless in three previous tries against Djokovic. The 24-time Grand Slam champion prevailed 6-4, 6-2 at the 2021 Monte-Carlo Masters, in five sets–and from two sets down–at Wimbledon in 2022, and via a 6-3, 6-4, 7-6(4) decision in the 2023 Wimbledon semifinals.

Nonetheless, the underdog will not be deterred. He was competitive in each of the two All-England Club encounters (especially the first one) and now he is playing the best tennis of his career. Moreover, Djokovic needed three hours and four minutes to outlast Holger Rune 7-6(4), 6-7(1), 6-3 on Sunday night whereas Sinner eased past Tsitsipas in one hour and 25 minutes. Finally, Djokovic generally plays his best in must-win situations. This is an important match, but even the loser will still have a good chance to qualify for the semifinals. It should be noted that Djokovic is 15-0 in his last 15 opening matches at the Nitto ATP Finals; he is just 8-7 in his 15 second round-robin matches.

This sets up extremely well for Sinner, so don’t be surprised if an upset is in the cards.

Pick: Sinner in 3

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