It was widely expected that Novak Djokovic vs. Roger Federer would be the night-session match on Tuesday at the Nitto ATP Finals. Of course, they each had to pass their opening tests for that to become a reality.
Instead, it will be Djokovic vs. Dominic Thiem in the Group B winners’ match after Thiem upset Federer 7-5, 7-5 on Sunday. The 26-year-old Austrian now gets a shot at Djokovic for the 10th time in his career, trailing what has suddenly become a competitive head-to-head series 6-3. Thiem lost their first five encounters and 11 of their first 12 sets, but he has since won three of four contests. They most recently collided in this year’s French Open semis, with Thiem surviving a wild one 6-2, 3-6, 7-5, 5-7, 7-5 after four hours and 13 minutes spanning two days.
Although the surface does not favor the world No. 5 this time around, he can’t be discounted based on his recent hard-court form. Three of his five titles in 2019 have come on hards–at the Indian Wells Masters and this fall in Beijing and Vienna. Following his win over Federer, Thiem boasts a 16-4 record during this fall swing.
“The system is pretty brutal, I would say, because I had amazing victory today,” said Thiem, who has never qualified for the semifinals of this event. “I’m feeling great; I’m feeling that I have a good chance to reach the semis. But if I lose on Tuesday, for example, everything is completely open again and I have to worry about everything [in] the next match on Thursday.”
Djokovic was favored to triumph at this tournament for a sixth time when this week began and nothing will change following the opening round-robin contests. The second-ranked Serb trounced Matteo Berrettini 6-2, 6-1 on Sunday, improving to 13-1 since the U.S. Open–a stretch that includes titles in Tokyo and Paris. His reward is a chance to avenge the French Open loss as opposed to a rematch of the famous Wimbledon final against Federer.
“This has been probably his best season, winning at home in Vienna and Indian Wells,” Djokovic said of Thiem. “We know how good of a player he is on clay; he’s been proving that he can play equally well on other surfaces. He’s already (an) established top-five player. We don’t need to talk about his qualities; quality is great. His dedication and professionalism and hard work ethics is fantastic, and he’s a really nice guy. So all positive things about him.”
Although Thiem was outstanding on Sunday, Federer was noticeably flat after taking a fair amount of time off (he skipped the Paris Masters). Djokovic, on the other hand, lifted the Paris trophy and only maintained momentum with his rout of Berrettini. The 16-time major champion is 3-0 lifetime against Thiem on hard courts and should be able to extend that perfection on Tuesday night.
Pick: Djokovic in 2
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