Nitto ATP Finals round-robin preview and prediction: Alcaraz vs. Zverev

Carlos Alcaraz has won two Grand Slam singles titles and has spent 36 weeks at No. 1 in the world. That’s why it is a considerable surprise that the Spaniard has never played a match at the Nitto ATP Finals.

Alcaraz qualified for the event last fall but was forced to withdraw due to an abdominal injury. Twelve months later, the 20-year-old will finally make his debut.

That’s not to say he is in perfect physical shape this time around, either. Alcaraz pulled out of last month’s ATP 500 tournament in Basel because of foot and lower-back problems. He returned at the Paris Masters, but his post-Wimbledon struggles continued with an immediate 6-3, 6-4 loss to Roman Safiullin. The world No. 2’s fall swing also includes a Beijing semifinal setback against Jannik Sinner and a Shanghai fourth-round loss to Grigor Dimitrov.

Up first for Alcaraz on Monday afternoon is a seventh career meeting with Zverev. The head-to-head series is all tied up at three wins apiece, with Zverev leading 2-1 on hard courts (1-0 for the German indoors). Although Alcaraz dominated their recent U.S. Open matchup 6-3, 6-2, 6-4, that came just two days after Zverev outlasted Sinner in a four-hour and 41-minute thriller that ended at almost 2:00 am.

It has been an up-and-down season for Zverev, although considering he was coming back from a bad 2022 ankle injury he can’t be dissatisfied. The 26-year-old is back up to No. 8 in the world thanks to a 53-26 record that features two titles and a runner-up performance at the Madrid Masters. Zverev has struggled a bit of late following a triumph in Chengdu, but at least that means he is well rested for Turin.

Whereas Alcaraz has never played a match at this tournament, Zverev is a two-time champion (2019, 2021). This is a great opportunity for the No. 7 seed to pull off what would be an upset on paper but really wouldn’t be a surprise.

Pick: Zverev in 3