NextGen ATP Finals title match preview and prediction: De Minaur vs. Sinner

Alex de Minaur and Jannik Sinner will battle for the NextGen ATP Finals title when they go head-to-head for the first time in their careers on Saturday night.

It should be a good one, as de Minaur and Sinner have clearly been the best players all week long in Milan. De Minaur is undefeated, having taken care of Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, Mimomir Kecmanovic, and Casper Ruud in round-robin play before beating Group B runner-up Frances Tiafoe 4-2, 4-1, 0-4, 4-2 in the semifinals. The 20-year-old Australian is now 8-1 lifetime at this tournament; he finished runner-up to Stefanos Tsitsipas in 2018.

“I’m just going to prepare for tomorrow like every match,” De Minaur said. “I’m happy to still be here and looking forward to the final.”

Sinner needed a wild card to get into the event and got one as the highest-ranked Italian under 21 years old. But he was by no means a big underdog going into Milan because he had played well throughout the summer and fall. Sinner’s rise to No. 95 in the world was sparked by a Challenger title in Lexington, a semifinal appearance in Antwerp, and a second-round performance at the 500-point tournament in Vienna. He clinched a spot in the Milan semis by knocking off Frances Tiafoe and Mikael Ymer in advance of a relatively meaningless loss to Ugo Humbert. Sinner then defeated Miomor Kecmanovic 2-4, 4-1, 4-2, 4-2 on Friday.

“It’s unbelievable,” the 18-year-old assured. “I didn’t feel so well in the beginning and [Kecmanovic] was playing very good; very aggressive…. I’ve never had this kind of feeling, so I’m very happy. I think I’ve done a great job.”

Even though Sinner is now a clear underdog in this particular match, the pressure of a final in front of the home crowd will be something different than what has previously been on display this week. Moreover, the opposition is now the toughest it can be. De Minaur has been the best player from start to finish in Milan, has valuable experience from last year’s final plus six ATP finals (three titles), and his defense is such that Sinner will seemingly have to hit multiple winners to finish points.

Expect the world No. 18 to wrap up his brilliant year in style at the conclusion of an entertaining contest.

Pick: De Minaur in 4

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12 Comments on NextGen ATP Finals title match preview and prediction: De Minaur vs. Sinner

  1. Just WoW. Sinner is a beast! He is absolutely killing it. Feeling bad for poor De Minaur – there seems to be nothing he can do. The Italian tennager is in a zone.

    Why do they play these short sets, tho? Take off the training wheels and play real tennis!

    • Yeah, I don’t like the short sets and deciding point junk either. Just isn’t like real tennis. Grats to young Sinner though. Impressive day for him.

  2. Congratulations to Jannik Sinner. Sinner smoked that final and Alex was not playing terrible – Alex was scratching his head.

  3. I was shocked by Sinner’s complete dominance of ADM. Seems like playing in that moment in Milan was a magic place for Sinner. Alex hopefully recovers from that humbling experience!

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