Monte-Carlo R2 preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Bautista Agut

Clay may be just what the doctor ordered for Rafael Nadal.

This time of year always comes bearing gifts for Nadal, and it could not be coming at a better time in 2019. The Spaniard once again fell victim to the physical toll of hard courts, withdrawing from a schedule semifinal showdown against Roger Federer at the Indian Wells Masters because of a knee injury. A month off and a return to his favorite surface should have the 32-year-old back in business.

Having practiced on the slow stuff for several weeks, Nadal is ready to take the match court for a third career contest against Roberto Bautista Agut in the second round of the Monte-Carlo Masters on Wednesday. The head-to-head stands at 2-0 in favor of the world No. 2, who cruised 6-4, 6-3 in the semifinals of the 2014 Madrid Masters before rolling to a 6-1, 6-2, 6-2 rout during fourth-round action at the 2017 French Open.

If Nadal is 100 percent, he is set up nicely to once again dominate the clay-court swing–perhaps picking up 12th titles both in Monte-Carlo and at Roland Garros. The 17-time major champion is not only well-rested but he has also been in fine form when healthy. He is sporting an 11-2 record this year, which includes a runner-up finish to Novak Djokovic at the Australian Open.

“It’s the start of the important clay season for me,” Nadal commented. “I hope to be healthy; I hope to be ready to compete well. This tournament is important for me and I hope to be competitive from the beginning.

“We can’t predict the future. I hope to be one of [the contenders on clay], but you never know. There is a young generation coming, and they are good. They play well on clay, too. Dominic (Thiem) is one of the candidates for everything, especially after winning in Indian Wells. Novak always, of course. Let’s see. Roger (Federer) is always a candidate; let’s see how he’s able to adapt his game again to the clay after a while without playing on clay.”

Baustista Agut has never been at the very top of tennis and he is one of the few Spaniards who is actually better on hard courts than on clay. Against Nadal, obviously, the world No. 22’s last choice for a surface would be dirt. The good news for Bautista Agut is that he is an awesome 15-4 in 2019 and coming off a quarterfinal run in Miami (upset Djokovic in the fourth round). The 31-year-old started slow in his Monte-Carlo opener but recovered to hammer John Millman 3-6, 6-1, 6-1.

On anything other than clay Bautista Agut would have a real shot due to his opponent’s potential rust. But in Monte-Carlo, it will be an uphill battle for him–and everyone else–against Nadal.

Pick: Nadal in 2 losing 5-7 games

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