Miami SF preview and prediction: Alcaraz vs. Sinner

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jannik Sinner has been projected as the ATP rivalry of the future.

Apparently it’s also the rivalry of the present.

Alcaraz and Sinner will already be squaring off for the seventh time in their careers when they clash in the semifinals of the Miami Open on Friday night. The head-to-head series stands at 4-2 in Alcaraz’s favor (3-2 on the main tour) after he prevailed 7-6(4), 6-3 exactly two weeks ago in the Indian Wells semis.

Still, Sinner knows he can be competitive–and even win. The only other time he has lost to Alcaraz in straight sets was a 7-6(1), 7-5 decision at the 2021 Paris Masters. Their 2022 U.S. Open quarterfinal encounter was one of the best matches in recent memory, won by the Spaniard 6-3, 6-7(7), 6-7(0), 7-5, 6-3.

Chapter 7 of Alcaraz-Sinner should not disappoint. After all, both players are displaying an absolutely incredible level in 2023. Alcaraz is 18-1 with titles in Buenos Aires and Indian Wells plus straight-set victories in Miami over Facundo Bagnis, Dusan Lajovic, Tommy Paul, and Taylor Fritz. Sinner is 20-4 with a triumph in Montpellier and a runner-up performance in Rotterdam to go along with his semifinal showing in Indian Wells.

Jannik Sinner Indian Wells


The 21-year-old Italian is relishing a rematch.

“I look forward for these kind of matches,” Sinner commented. “As I said [in Indian Wells], I feel like he makes me a better player. We (will) see the outcome, and if it’s good, it’s good. If not, we see what we have to improve again.”

Sinner may be able to improve on his Indian Wells result against Alcaraz, as nowhere is the world No. 11 better than he is in Miami. He is 12-2 lifetime at this event (12-1 if you don’t count a retirement) and finished runner-up in 2021. Sinner earned a return trip to the semis by beating Laslo Djere, Grigor Dimitrov, Andrey Rublev, and Emil Ruusuvuori all in easy straight sets. In fact, the 10th seed has not lost more than four games in any set.

Sinner loves the conditions and is even more rested than Alcaraz after having an off day on Thursday. A minor upset could be in the cards for what projects to be the best match of the tournament.

Pick: Sinner in 3

WWW: Alcaraz vs. Sinner?

6 Comments on Miami SF preview and prediction: Alcaraz vs. Sinner

  1. It’s perfect timing for Alcaraz. 4 years ago he’d lose in 4 sets on regular basis to the big 3.

    10 years ago, he’d be lucky to win a set.

    Let’s keep things in perspective

  2. You’d have to give the edge to Alcaraz (which the bookies have done) but data says upset is on the cards.

    At 3-4/1 for Sinner, you’d have to play the underdog.

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