Miami R1 previews and predictions: Murray vs. Berrettini, Fils vs. Arnaldi

Main-draw competition in Miami will get underway on Wednesday, and it should begin with a bang. Andy Murray vs. Matteo Berrettini is the headliner, while Arthur Fils and Matteo Arnaldi are also taking the court.

Andy Murray vs. (PR) Matteo Berrettini

It will be a tale of two big-name players coming back from injuries when Murray and Berrettini meet again for the sixth time in their careers on Wednesday at the Miami Open. Berrettini has won three of their past four encounters to seize a 3-2 lead in the head-to-head series. The Italian had won three straight (including a pair of 2023 contests) before coming out on the losing end of an epic five-setter at last year’s Australian Open.

While Murray’s comeback has not been going particularly well, Berrettini’s had not been going at all–at least not until he finished runner-up at the Phoenix Challenger on Sunday. The 27-year-old Italian had not played since suffering an ankle injury at the 2023 U.S. Open. Berrettini’s balance between fatigue and rust probably isn’t ideal at the moment; he does not have a ton of matches under his belt, but at the same time he is coming off a long week in Phoenix. Murray, who returns serve extremely well, should be able to capitalize by getting a bunch of balls back in play.

Pick: Murray in 2

Arthur Fils vs. Matteo Arnaldi

Fils and Arnaldi will be squaring off for the third time in their careers (second on the main tour). Both of their previous encounters have gone Arnaldi’s way; he prevailed 3-6, 6-3, 6-2 in 2023 Madrid qualifying before scoring a 3-6, 7-6(5), 7-5, 5-7, 6-5 victory at the U.S. Open. It has been full steam ahead for the 23-year-old ever since, and he is up to 38th in the rankings. Arnaldi advanced one round in Indian Wells this past fortnight and took a set off eventual champion Carlos Alcaraz. He has won his opening match at six of seven tournaments so far this season.

Prior to embarking on the Sunshine Double, Fils took his talents to the Golden Swing–where he won just a single match in three events. The 37th-ranked Frenchman did well to earn a pair of victories at the Indian Wells Masters, but overall his form has been lackluster. Arnaldi, on the other hand, has been in the best form of his life and has played entirely on hard courts this season. The Italian will likely have the upper hand–just as he did at the Madrid Masters and U.S. Open.

Pick: Arnaldi in 3