Miami final preview and prediction: Federer vs. Nadal

Arguably the greatest rivalry in tennis history is picking up steam in a major way. And it is doing so 13 years after it first began–at this same Miami Open.

Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal will be facing each other for the 37th time in their careers and for the third time already this season when they battle for the Miami title on Sunday afternoon. Federer and Nadal went 15 months without a single meeting before colliding at both the Australian Open and the Indian Wells Masters earlier this year. The Swiss survived a 6-4, 3-6, 6-1, 3-6, 6-3 thriller to triumph Down Under before destroying Nadal 6-2, 6-3 in an all-too-early fourth-round showdown in the California desert.

Nadal still leads the overall head-to-head series 23-13, but it is now tied up 9-9 on hard courts. The two all-time greats have squared off three times in Miami, where each of their first two encounters took place. Nadal cruised 6-3, 6-3 back in 2004, Federer prevailed 2-6, 6-7(4), 7-6(5), 6-3, 6-1 in the 2005 final, and Nadal got the job done 6-3, 6-2 in 2011.

This one almost did not come to fruition. Federer has been the dominant player of 2017 with an 18-1 record and titles in Melbourne and Indian Wells, but it was far from one-way traffic for him in the quarterfinals and semis. After saving two match points to outlast Tomas Berdych 6-2, 3-6, 7-6(6), the 35-year-old returned one day later and battled past Nick Kyrgios 7-6(9), 6-7(9), 7-6(5) in three hours and 10 minutes. Federer preceded those results with more routine defeats of Frances Tiafoe, Juan Martin Del Potro, and Roberto Bautista Agut.

“He’s playing so good,” Nadal commented. “That’s all, no? He’s playing great. When (a) top player like him is playing that well, then it’s always a big challenge for every player. That’s all.”

Nadal endured only one real scare on the way to his fifth Miami final. The sixth-ranked Spaniard got bageled in the first set of his third-round date with Philipp Kohlschreiber, but he recovered to win 0-6, 6-2, 6-3. Nadal also boasts straight-set victories over Dudi Sela, Nicolas Mahut, Jack Sock, and Fabio Fognini.

The 14-time major champion is still in search of his first Miami title, currently saddle with an 0-4 record in finals. This one should be more competitive than what transpired in Indian Wells, but Federer is battle-hardened thanks to Berdych and Kyrgios and a full day off will restored whatever energy was sapped in those thrillers. Given the way he is hitting his backhand, which had been his waterloo against Nadal in the past, Federer should make it three in a row at his rival’s expense.

Pick: Federer in 2

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43 Comments on Miami final preview and prediction: Federer vs. Nadal

  1. He (Roger) will need time to have brain cells regenerated, body parts, ect…
    I intentionally didn’t see the match or even watch the score.

    Is it 2007 yet?

    Was the match any good?

  2. @christophclarey
    Another smart move from a player who has almost always made smart moves when it comes to scheduling
    ESPNTennis‏ @ESPNTennis
    Roger Federer to Brad Gilbert: “I probably won’t play any clay court events except the French. I need a rest. My body needs healing.”

  3. Rafa fans should be grateful for small mercies. At least the crowd showed a modicum of respect and didn’t indulge in the disgraceful heckling witnessed during the Kyrgios SF. It helped there was a sizeable contingent of Spanish supporter in the stands.

    Rafa appeared resigned about the loss and as always gave his customary gracious speech.

  4. He. Keeps. On. Winning. He got this one done because his confidence and more aggressive play. Even if he wasn’t as sharp as recent tournaments, he kept playing aggressive and coming forward and holy moly does Roger take the ball early so well. As I suspected, Roger would win because of his lesser chance of being broken. I did think Rafa would probably take a set though just because of Fed’s fatigue. Roger showed some signs of weariness but overall his game style isn’t as taxing as others so may not have been as tired as others would be despite his age.

  5. I know it’s hard to think about at this moment, but Rafa had worse pre-clay season results last year, and still went on to win MC and Barcelona, beating Murray, Kei, and the then-defending RG champ along the way, and was considered a top contender for RG… There’s no reason that can’t happen this year…

  6. Assuming Roger does skip clay before Paris, Rafa needs to earn 2340 points out of a possible 3500 over four clay lead ups to catch Roger for the coveted Top 4 spot heading into Paris.

    A win today would have reduced that to 1540 which would have been reasonable.

  7. Well, had to leave for business dinner which I almost missed, and could not see the end of it…once Fed broke Rafa in the second I knew it was all over. Rafa had his chances, failed to capitalize on those break points..,such a shame…If only he was able to win that first set, things would have been different…

    It was an anti climatic match, Rafa making errors but saving himself with good serve which is encouraging! Fed got lucky with that net cord, but Rafa was already making it easy for him with his UE, so inevitable came in the end…I really thought Rafa would make ir more difficult for Fed since he started playing well…unfortunately, the thing that I feared the most, Rafa’s inconsistency cost him this match..,

    However, Rafa did much worse last year and won titles on clay and if not getting injured could have done much more…so there is hope…

    IMO Rafa is heading in the right direction. Today he did not play well and he lost. Even by playing sub par tennis he had his chances. Let’s see how things will go on clay,..

    Fed is smart to skip clay tourneys. Serbian commentators were saying he would also skip FO, but guess that’s just their speculation…

    I think Rafa is geared up and will be strong on clay. I really think so…

    Vamos Champ! It’s your time now!

  8. Stephanie Myles‏ @OpenCourt
    Fed said knee felt wonky on clay last year. Physio thinks surface might have been a contributing factor – one reason to minimize clay play

    Fraser‏Verified account @stu_fraser
    Federer: “Wimbledon has to be the biggest goal now. I will stay on hard courts for the next month & get on clay two weeks before the French”

    Svenja Mastroberardi‏
    @svenja_mastro
    Federer repeats in interview with SRF that he’ll skip clay except FO, apparently he counted the weeks: “I’ll take 10 weeks off now”. 🙂

  9. Miami Open champion Roger Federer solidifies grip on GOAT

    “Coming into 2017, Roger Federer had lost 23 of 34 matches to Rafael Nadal.
    In the sometimes heated discussion regarding the greatest men’s tennis player of all time, it was the only serious asterisk.

    And now, three months into this young season, Federer has taken some positive steps toward erasing that qualifier. Three big, swift strides, to be precise.

    Suddenly, 23-14 doesn’t seem so one-sided. And the GOAT argument doesn’t seem quite as complicated. Especially the way things have gone this season.

    And for now, there is no GOAT argument.”

    http://www.espn.com/tennis/story/_/id/19060144/miami-open-tennis-roger-federer-solidifies-grip-goat

    • Oh, I was looking at the article but failed to look at who posted it in the first place; I’ll be more careful next time. Certainly not wanting to deal with people I don’t want to deal with that’s for sure!!

      • Haha!

        Peace LS.

        I still luvs ya! One of the most knowledgeable tennis fans here always. We need you to debate with Joe!

        Glad you’re here and willing to put up with me. Regardless whether you comment or not (I KNOW you read my posts though.)

  10. @BenRothenberg 6m6 minutes ago
    London field as of now:
    1. Federer
    2. Nadal
    3. Wawrinka
    4. Dimitrov
    5. Tsonga
    6. Thiem
    7. Sock
    8. Goffin
    Alts: Carreño Busta, Kyrgios

    Only guy who started 2017 in top-7 who’d currently qualify for London: Wawrinka

    Murray, Djokovic, Raonic, Nishikori, Cilic, Monfils lagging

  11. One non logical factor might be overlooked:

    Despite how well Rafa played in Miami, the lucky star of Miami would not be at his side. MIAMI land is just not the place for Rafa to shine.

    Had both played the same level as we watched at another place today, Rafa luck would have been different today. Watch all the net cords.

    RG is the tournament held every year on around Rafa birthday, that might bring him his best star of the time.

    Rog being born on 8/8 to some customs is believed to be at the luckiest number, that might explain he has the biggest supporters wherever he goes.

    Unexplainable logic, no?

    🙂

  12. Fed just too good on the hard atm and will probably win Wimbledon.

    Stepping in a taking time away from your opponent doesn’t work so well on clay hence why Rafa will continue to do well. I think he’s a great chance of winning RG given his solid results on hard this year.

    • It seems to me Rafa is playing clay court style tennis on the HCs in preparation for the clay court season!

      Rafa didn’t look too upset to me, perhaps his mind was already thinking of the clay court season. I guess at this age, he has to target only certain events to play well and to win, can’t target to win everything. Fed is already doing that, targeting HCs and Grass.

      If Rafa wins many titles come this clay court season, I think he will then concentrate on the USO, and not Wimbledon though he will still play there, just like Fed does at the FO. In 2013 Rafa lost in R1 at Wimbledon and then won the USO series masters and slam; perhaps less fatigued at that time after losing early at Wimbledon? Rafa usually played more aggressive tennis at the USO, probably knowing on quicker courts that’s the only way to have chances to win.

      If Djoko and Murray can’t get back to their best, then Fedal may sweep all the slams (and I feel if Rafa wins the FO, he may be confident enough to do well at the USO HC series). Rafa should at least learn from his 2013, i.e. to be more aggressive even when he may not reach his 2013 level.

  13. Fed is saying he wont play on clay except RG but I doubt that..I think he will enroll in 1 of them..Why enroll in RG at all if he is not that keen?

    What if he goes deep in RG? Say semi/F etc..how will that affect his wimby goal?

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