Miami final preview and prediction: Federer vs. Nadal

Arguably the greatest rivalry in tennis history is picking up steam in a major way. And it is doing so 13 years after it first began–at this same Miami Open.

Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal will be facing each other for the 37th time in their careers and for the third time already this season when they battle for the Miami title on Sunday afternoon. Federer and Nadal went 15 months without a single meeting before colliding at both the Australian Open and the Indian Wells Masters earlier this year. The Swiss survived a 6-4, 3-6, 6-1, 3-6, 6-3 thriller to triumph Down Under before destroying Nadal 6-2, 6-3 in an all-too-early fourth-round showdown in the California desert.

Nadal still leads the overall head-to-head series 23-13, but it is now tied up 9-9 on hard courts. The two all-time greats have squared off three times in Miami, where each of their first two encounters took place. Nadal cruised 6-3, 6-3 back in 2004, Federer prevailed 2-6, 6-7(4), 7-6(5), 6-3, 6-1 in the 2005 final, and Nadal got the job done 6-3, 6-2 in 2011.

This one almost did not come to fruition. Federer has been the dominant player of 2017 with an 18-1 record and titles in Melbourne and Indian Wells, but it was far from one-way traffic for him in the quarterfinals and semis. After saving two match points to outlast Tomas Berdych 6-2, 3-6, 7-6(6), the 35-year-old returned one day later and battled past Nick Kyrgios 7-6(9), 6-7(9), 7-6(5) in three hours and 10 minutes. Federer preceded those results with more routine defeats of Frances Tiafoe, Juan Martin Del Potro, and Roberto Bautista Agut.

“He’s playing so good,” Nadal commented. “That’s all, no? He’s playing great. When (a) top player like him is playing that well, then it’s always a big challenge for every player. That’s all.”

Nadal endured only one real scare on the way to his fifth Miami final. The sixth-ranked Spaniard got bageled in the first set of his third-round date with Philipp Kohlschreiber, but he recovered to win 0-6, 6-2, 6-3. Nadal also boasts straight-set victories over Dudi Sela, Nicolas Mahut, Jack Sock, and Fabio Fognini.

The 14-time major champion is still in search of his first Miami title, currently saddle with an 0-4 record in finals. This one should be more competitive than what transpired in Indian Wells, but Federer is battle-hardened thanks to Berdych and Kyrgios and a full day off will restored whatever energy was sapped in those thrillers. Given the way he is hitting his backhand, which had been his waterloo against Nadal in the past, Federer should make it three in a row at his rival’s expense.

Pick: Federer in 2

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45 Comments on Miami final preview and prediction: Federer vs. Nadal

  1. Nny!!..I missed chatting with u too!U didn’t come here yesterday…I want to ask for u but at the same I thought u want some time to deal with Rafa’s loss but I should send something for u!!Urgh!!I regretted I didn’t do that!..And I’m also dying to know how you’re doing?You’re okay now Nny?

    About Rafa…we have to be positive Nny…just think like this….if he can bring himself from his temporary slump of 2 years with flying colours so far,who’s to say that he can’t bring himself a bit further than that?One thing that stand out about the Big 4 is that..they’re very very special species..they can turn things around in a blink of an eye..Rafa proved it too many times before,Andy and now Roger do the same..and honestly Nny…I think Rafa will win titles,,it’s just a matter of time..sure,we can see many times that Rafa still have problems to execute an important decision in key moments but IMO,that’s normal considering his age..when you’re got older and everything start to loose and not as sharp as we were young,whether in thinking,made a decision or our physical abilities..more so with rafa who’s got the most painful experienced with his body and mind for the past 2 years…

    Nny…1 thing we do know is that rafa is a warrior..he will keep on fighting till the end…and he’s also not too far strayed Nny…his level is closer than the result showed to us…the key for us is to be patient..and believe me Nny…rafa will not disappoint us…at least I believe so..insyaallah!..VAMOS RAFA!!!WOOOOHOOOO!!!

  2. In my personal opinion following things can happen if each of them meet in RG Final – I repeat if they meet in Final:

    1. Djokoviv vs Nadal: Nadal wins
    2. Djokovic vs Wawrinka: Wawrinka wins
    3. Djokovic vs Federer: Federer wins
    4. Nadal vs Wawrinka: Wawrinka wins
    5. Federer vs WaWrinka: Federer wins
    6. Nadal vs Federer: coin toss

      • Sometimes its about match ups. Even Murray defeated Wawrinka in RG. Does it mean Murray should have beaten Djokovic because Wawrinka had beaten Novak in previous year. I am talking about Wawrinka’s chances with respect to current Nadal and current confident Federer.

        • And you think the current confident Fed is a coin toss against the current Nadal, when Stan could beat Nadal??

          Stan had beaten Fed at RG in 2015, if anything, Stan would be even more determined to beat Fed after that IW final. Also Nadal had never feared Stan on clay, and he’s playing better now than last year (last year he beat Stan on clay).

          Rafa has never feared any SHBH players on clay, has beaten them more than they beat him.

          • I am not underestimating Nadal’s chances at any cost at RG against anyone. I am just talking about with respect to certain factors.
            Wawrinka beat Federer in RG 2015, but still I think Federer can win against Wawrinka due to his current confidence he is getting after AO. I am totally talking about with respect to what is happening under current circumstances. That is why I like Nadal’s chances against Djokovic if they meet in RG final despite of the face Novak had beaten Rafa in straight sets last time they had met on RG. And Its not that Wawrinka has never beaten Nadal on clay.

          • Ha, Stan had only beaten Nadal once on clay and here you’re saying he would beat Rafa on clay but would lose to Fed?

            Current Fed is confident but not on clay! Djoko to reach FO final? If he’s so good that he reaches the final, then it’ll be coin toss between him and Rafa! See, how confused you are?

  3. I think this year’s RG is the most important slam in Rafa’s career. He must win to remain in spotlight and to find the motive to win further slams. Sometimes, a single match result could turn the dynamics of future tennis debate. I think if Nadal would have won AO final against Federer this year, his confidence might have carried him to win RG and probabily US open too. I could have easily seen him winning 3 grandslams this year if he somehow won. It was probabily the most important match in Fedal’s career or may in tennis history. And now we are suddenly talking about Federer’s potential possibility to Callender Year GS.

    On the other hand, Rafa must make sure that Federer does not win RG. If Federer somehowe wins RG, his confidence would be so astronomical that I would be surprised if he does not win CYGS then.

    • Don’t worry, Fed won’t win FO. It’s just wishful thinking by Fed’s fanatic supporters. There are far too many players who can beat and will beat Fed on clay. It’s wise of him to concentrate on Wimbledon.

      • Lol. Its not that Federer will certainly win RG. Its more about HE CAN in Federer’s ‘FANATIC’ thinking. Its more Rafans who think Federer WILL never win RG and Rafa is a total Guarantee.

        “There are far too many players who can beat and will beat Fed on clay”. By the way does it apply on Nadal’s too?

        • Nope. How many players can beat Nadal on clay? Compared to beating Fed?

          And nope, Fed can’t win FO, not when he doesn’t even play any warm up tournament. Please don’t talk as if the whole field is so useless, esp on clay where Fed is not one of the best on it for so long now!

      • Fed fanatics who think that Fed WILL win RG definitely have wishful thinking. But it’s common sense that a guy playing this well has a CHANCE at winning it, even if that chance is lower than others. Saying that any top player doesn’t even have a chance is no different that someone saying that a player definitely will win. Everyone knew that Fed’s chances of winning the AO this year were slim going into it, but it still happened didn’t it? Even if his chances are slim, why then think that he doesn’t even have any chance at RG? What if Fed got a good draw, and Rafa and Novak just happened to lose before he had to face them? Sure, that’s probably not very likely, but we’ve seen that happen before at majors… We saw it happen in 2009. I am with you, Luckystar, that Federer probably won’t win RG, but I would never say it isn’t possible! If he could make the final there 5 times before, and is arguably playing as good as he was back then, then how could you say he doesn’t even have a chance? All it would take for him to suddenly have a good shot would be if he didn’t have to face Rafa and/or Djokovic, or if Djokovic doesn’t play very well. And as much as we don’t want to think it could happen, what if Fed’s newly aggressive game just happened to actually translate better than we thought onto the clay, and he actually was able to beat Rafa? What if Rafa goes deep in every tournament leading up to RG and starts to get a little tired, and Fed comes in completely rested like at AO and is able to adjust fine to the clay in the earlier rounds? I’m not saying this is likely haha!! But it absolutely is possible! How could it not be at least SLIGHTLY possible, lucky? Yes, I think Rafa is the favorite as of now for RG. Does that mean that Federer absolutely WILL NOT win RG? Of course it doesn’t…

        • I don’t see anyone saying Fed cannot win RG. If depends on how it all plays out. Rafa and Novak will be important in any scenario. If for some reason one or both lose early, then that will impact what happens. That could give Fed an opportunity.

          These discussions are hypothetical at this point. It’s speculation which is all well and good. As long as we remember that’s all it is.

          I think Rafa is certainly playing better this year than last year. The caveat with Rafa is that he stays healthy and remains injury free. That is what cost him at RG last year. Rafa has to be in the discussion when it comes to RG.

          I am looking forward to how Rafa does in the warmup clay tournaments. If he can win a title or more, then he can come into RG with some momentum, confidence and good feelings

      • “Don’t worry, Fed won’t win FO. It’s just wishful thinking by Fed’s fanatic supporters. There are far too many players who can beat and will beat Fed on clay. It’s wise of him to concentrate on Wimbledon.”

        “Far Too many players…”
        Examples please.

          • Wrong. He had two exho matches before Australia. Not much more than a practise match.

            So he can do the same in Paris especially with a cupcake draw which can be assumed (not to mention faster clay).

            Not like the rest of the field is in great form.

            How many times!!!!

  4. Luckystar,
    Current Fed is confident but not on clay! Djoko to reach FO final? If he’s so good that he reaches the final, then it’ll be coin toss between him and Rafa! See, how confused you are?

    No..I am not comfused. You are confusing yourself by mixing OLD RAFA under current circumstances. at RG.

  5. Old Rafa? I’m not even talking about old Rafa!

    The current Rafa is better than the 2016 version, and that 2016 version was already very good if not for his wrist injury!

  6. And you’re the one who mentioned that ‘if Djoko meets Rafa in FO final’ and then earlier on you said – Djoko vs Nadal, Nadal wins. You’re the one confusing things up.

    • For God sake, it’s just an assumption that if current Djokovic meets relatively better current Rafa (compare to 15 and 16) in RG final, then there is a big chance that Rafa may beat Djokovic. Djokovic reaching final means he may certainly be looking good but Nadal reaching final would also make Nadal look probabily just better due to his incredible record in RG Finals. I am not sure why are you getting confused in understanding this thing and what is the thing where I am spreading confusion.

      • OLD Rafa meant the Rafa we used to see at RG during his winning years at RG. OLD RAFA I mean the BEST Rafa we had…..Old did not mean age wise OLD. OLD rafa means the previous Rafa was almost unbeatable in RG.

      • You are confused! As I said if Djoko is to reach the FO final, no one can say the current Djoko on clay is worse than Rafa on clay! The Masters results have no bearings on the FO.

        And you’re confused too about ‘Old’ Rafa. No one says it’s old (age wise) Rafa, and I didn’t even mention the formidable Rafa on clay from the past! I was talking about the current Rafa comparing to his recent 2016 version! To me that version without wrist injury is good enough to win the FO, and this current Rafa is even better, in that he has done better this year prior to the clay season and that gives him lots of positives coming into the clay season. I mean reaching the final at Miami compared to losing in R2 last year, certainly the feeling is better now.

  7. Fed did great on the HCs because he was fresh, he made significant improvements to his game to make the games faster and shorten play. Thus his sucess lead to his sky high confidence. Credit for that!

    Rafa lost close match in AO thus his improvement has been slowed down. Rafa’s low confidence vs. Fed’s high confidence lead to Rafa misfiring in key moments. But again the match was close on Fed’s more favorable surface.

    Clay needs everything but fast play, point construction is what matters. Rafa is certainly there with his current form, only needs to win a few to get high on confidence.

    I think Fed will not win FO. He needs rest and will not be ready on clay. He would also risk injury during long points on dirt…he talked about his fragile knee and advice of his doctor to that effect. We all know his goal is Wimby and if he is fresh and injury free (bear in mind he is close to 36 and his body wears and tears faster duing grueling matches) he will do great there.I thought Fed looked tired in the Miami final and that Rafa was better than him most of the first set. But Rafa’s lack of confidence got Fed an easy victory in the end. Too bad Rafa didn’t win that first set, the match would have been a whole lot competitive.

    I agree Nole is bigger threat to Rafa on clay than Fed. If Nole gets even close to his old form, it will be those two fighting for the RG title..

    • Well said Nats once again. Fed would not want to injure himself just before Wimbledon, so he won’t be fighting hard for the FO title.

      You’re right Fed was fresh at the AO, and if he plays and goes deep at FO, he may risk exhaustion as he’s entering Stuttgart, Halle before Wimbledon. He’s 35, not 25! Fed himself said before the AO final that he would go all out to win even if he had to take a few months off after that to recover. I’m sure he would do that for Wimbledon, but not for FO, as he doesn’t have enough time to recover from FO to Wimbledon should he get injured.

      I also feel Rafa didn’t go all out to win Miami; he looked hesitant at times during the final. Rafa also feared getting injured just before the clay season I feel.

      I do have this thinking that these days, Rafa will conserve energy to get ready for clay and the FO, thereafter, he will go all out to win during USO series when he doesn’t do well on grass. In the past, Rafa would go all out to win anything from slow HCs right up to Wimbledon, and then had nothing left for the USO. Losing early at Wimbledon perhaps had made Rafa shifted his attention, to concentrate on the USO instead.

  8. If Nole and Rafa are in great form:

    1. Djokovic vs Nadal: Nadal wins
    2. Djokovic vs Wawrinka: Djokovic wins
    3. Djokovic vs Federer: Djokovic wins
    4. Nadal vs Wawrinka: Nadal wins
    5. Federer vs WaWrinka: Federer wins
    6. Nadal vs Federer: Nadal wins

    If late 2016 Nole and current form Rafa show up in RG:

    1. Djokovic vs Nadal: coin toss
    2. Djokovic vs Wawrinka: Wawrinka wins
    3. Djokovic vs Federer: Federer wins
    4. Nadal vs Wawrinka: Wawrinka wins
    5. Federer vs WaWrinka: Federer wins
    6. Nadal vs Federer: Federer wins

  9. Guys, I am a huge Rafan….but for me Rafa is not the big favorite for this years FO. He won it so many times because he could run like a rabbit…not the case anymore.
    Have to tell, I think there is no clear favorite this year for RG, atm. Perhaps will change my mind after Monte Carlo and Madrid

    • Don’t see that (that Rafa might…. to win hard court tournaments) happening. If he can’t run like a rabbit on clay, then how’s he going to do that on HCs to win, when he doesnt even have a big serve to help him out.

      Anyway, on clay Rafa can glide instead of runs, so he shouldn’t have problems getting to the ball; he glides better than anyone else on clay. On clay too, he can have time to anticipate and construct points and returns serves better, so I think he will do better on clay than on the HCs.

      • Yeah, he’s only made three of four hard court finals played so far this year going to a 5th set up a break in Australia.

        Agree with Lucky on this one – can’t see Rafa possibly winning one in 2017 based on this “wretched” hard court performance.

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