Miami final preview and prediction: Federer vs. Nadal

Arguably the greatest rivalry in tennis history is picking up steam in a major way. And it is doing so 13 years after it first began–at this same Miami Open.

Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal will be facing each other for the 37th time in their careers and for the third time already this season when they battle for the Miami title on Sunday afternoon. Federer and Nadal went 15 months without a single meeting before colliding at both the Australian Open and the Indian Wells Masters earlier this year. The Swiss survived a 6-4, 3-6, 6-1, 3-6, 6-3 thriller to triumph Down Under before destroying Nadal 6-2, 6-3 in an all-too-early fourth-round showdown in the California desert.

Nadal still leads the overall head-to-head series 23-13, but it is now tied up 9-9 on hard courts. The two all-time greats have squared off three times in Miami, where each of their first two encounters took place. Nadal cruised 6-3, 6-3 back in 2004, Federer prevailed 2-6, 6-7(4), 7-6(5), 6-3, 6-1 in the 2005 final, and Nadal got the job done 6-3, 6-2 in 2011.

This one almost did not come to fruition. Federer has been the dominant player of 2017 with an 18-1 record and titles in Melbourne and Indian Wells, but it was far from one-way traffic for him in the quarterfinals and semis. After saving two match points to outlast Tomas Berdych 6-2, 3-6, 7-6(6), the 35-year-old returned one day later and battled past Nick Kyrgios 7-6(9), 6-7(9), 7-6(5) in three hours and 10 minutes. Federer preceded those results with more routine defeats of Frances Tiafoe, Juan Martin Del Potro, and Roberto Bautista Agut.

“He’s playing so good,” Nadal commented. “That’s all, no? He’s playing great. When (a) top player like him is playing that well, then it’s always a big challenge for every player. That’s all.”

Nadal endured only one real scare on the way to his fifth Miami final. The sixth-ranked Spaniard got bageled in the first set of his third-round date with Philipp Kohlschreiber, but he recovered to win 0-6, 6-2, 6-3. Nadal also boasts straight-set victories over Dudi Sela, Nicolas Mahut, Jack Sock, and Fabio Fognini.

The 14-time major champion is still in search of his first Miami title, currently saddle with an 0-4 record in finals. This one should be more competitive than what transpired in Indian Wells, but Federer is battle-hardened thanks to Berdych and Kyrgios and a full day off will restored whatever energy was sapped in those thrillers. Given the way he is hitting his backhand, which had been his waterloo against Nadal in the past, Federer should make it three in a row at his rival’s expense.

Pick: Federer in 2

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25 Comments on Miami final preview and prediction: Federer vs. Nadal

  1. Rafa seems to lose the belief now after losing the first set. It’s really unsettling seeing Rafa looking resigned and starts making so many errors, spraying FHs and BHs!

    • I agree. It’s disconcerting to see Rafa losing belief. It’s like what used to happen against Novak. Rafa seems to be hanging in there through sheer force of will. But this is not enjoyable to watch.

      At least in the first set he was pressuring Fed on his serve and getting break chances. Now nothIng.

  2. Atleast 2 more games than IW..thats some progress 🙂

    Sorry I am finding ways to just be humorous after seeing that monstrous FH vulgarity

  3. That was one heck of a service hold. Vamos!

    Full marks to Rafa’s second serve. First time I have seen him up its level significantly in a big match.

    Now, can Rafa capitalize? normally when you came through a game like this, you feel good about yourself.

    Dear Rog, take it easy with your first serves please.

    • yes sanju. he has been winning more points on 2nd serves so that’s why I was hoping. I know it’s not been about Fed’s serves.

  4. WTH RAFA ! poooooor forehand on 30-30! Forehand is S*** today. So inconsistent. Explains why his overall confidence not high. He depends on so much on his forehand.

  5. Why are we disappointed..Rafa should be..we expect too much of him and he has been not delivering from 3 years now..

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