Metz and St. Petersburg previews and predictions

The season has turned from the outdoor hard courts of the United States to an indoor setting in Europe, but the more things change the more they stay the same: Dominic Thiem is playing tennis. Despite stumbling through an injury-plagued hard-court summer that culminated with a fourth-round U.S. Open retirement against Juan Martin Del Potro, Thiem is back in action for the beginning of the fall swing. He is the top seed in Metz, where a strong 250-point field also includes David Goffin, Lucas Pouille, and Nicolas Mahut. In St. Petersburg, meanwhile, Stan Wawrinka will be suiting up for the first time since capturing his third career Grand Slam title in New York.

Moselle Open

Where: Metz, France
Surface: Indoor hard
Prize money: 463,520 Euros
Points: 250

Top seed: Dominic Thiem
2015 champion: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (not playing)

Draw analysis: Winners’ trophies are up for grabs on a consistent basis during the dog days of the fall swing, and this week’s festivities in Metz should be no exception. That means the Julien Benneteau title watch is on; so, for that matter, is the Gilles Muller title watch. Amazingly enough, neither veteran has ever triumphed on the ATP Tour and they are a combined 0-15 lifetime in finals (Benneteau is 0-10; Muller is 0-5). Benneteau is already through to the last 16 following Monday’s win over Martin Klizan, and he awaits what should be a winnable contest against either Dustin Brown or Paul-Henri Mathieu. Goffin, Pouille, and Mahut are also part of a difficult bottom half of the bracket, so things could get especially tough for Benneteau starting in the quarterfinals.

Muller beat Horacio Zeballos 7-6(5), 7-5 in his opener. The sixth-seeded Luxembourgian’s draw is a good one—depending on Thiem’s status. If the No. 1 seed is less than 100 percent (and that may be the case based on how he looked at the U.S. Open), Muller has a great chance to reach the semifinals…and beyond. A slumping Gilles Simon is the other first-round bye recipient in the top half, so this is a wide open section for someone like Muller, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, or Malek Jaziri.

Hot: Lucas Pouille, Gilles Muller, Nicolas Mahut, Illya Marchenko

Cold: Dominic Thiem, Gilles Simon, Benoit Paire, Ivan Dodig, Tommy Robredo

Semifinal predictions: Gilles Muller over Guillermo Garcia-Lopez and Nicolas Mahut over Lucas Pouille

Final: Muller over Mahut

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St. Petersburg Open

Where: St. Petersburg, Russia
Surface: Indoor hard
Prize money: $923,550
Points: 250

Top seed: Stan Wawrinka
Defending champion: Milos Raonic

Draw analysis: Well, Wawrinka is not wasting any time getting back on the court. The reigning U.S. Open champion skipped last week’s Davis Cup action as Switzerland played its way back into the World Group for 2017, but apparently one week off is enough. Or is it? It goes without saying that Wawrinka’s motivation level could be a question mark as he transitions from the U.S. Open title to one of the most notoriously obscure 250-point events of the entire ATP season. This year’s St. Petersburg field is actually a decent one with Milos Raonic, Tomas Berdych, and Alexander Zverev joining Wawrinka.

But the top-seeded Swiss finds himself in a soft top half of the draw, so it may be up to him in terms of how long he wants to stick around in St. Petersburg this week. Lukas Rosol (second round) or Fernando Verdasco (quarterfinals) could take advantage if Wawrinka shows signs of fatigue or disinterest. Raonic, Berdych, and Zverev are all in the bottom half. A potential quarterfinal showdown could pit Raonic against Zverev, while Berdych likely awaits an opening date with Andrey Kuznetsov before possibly running into Albert Ramos-Vinolas or Mischa Zverev.

Hot: Stan Wawrinka, Milos Raonic, Mischa Zverev, Paolo Lorenzi, Daniil Medvedev

Cold: Tomas Berdych, Viktor Troicki, Lukas Rosol, Adrian Mannarino, Andrey Rublev, Janko Tipsarevic

Semifinal predictions: Fernando Verdasco over Roberto Bautista Agut and Milos Raonic over Andrey Kuznetsov

Final: Raonic over Verdasco

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