Madrid third round
(1) Rafael Nadal vs. Jarkko Nieminen: Nadal in 2. Nadal is 17-1 lifetime in total sets against Nieminen. Not much is going to change–especially not on clay.
(12) Grigor Dimitrov vs. (6) Tomas Berdych: Dimitrov in 3. Dimitrov leads the head-to-head series 2-0 and he is much-improved since the previous times they faced each other. Clay also should favor the Bulgarian.
(LL) Lukasz Kubot vs. Roberto Bautista Agut: Bautista Agut in 2. On one hand Kubot’s luck as lucky loser has continued with an unseeded opponent in the third round of a Masters event. Playing an in-form Bautista Agut on the road in Spain and on clay, however, will not be fun.
(Q) Santiago Giraldo vs. (7) Andy Murray: Giraldo in 3. Murray got past a less-than-100 percent Nicolas Almagro, but he was not inspiring. Giraldo is playing the best tennis of his career and clay obviously gives him his best–and only–opportunity in this matchup.
(8) Milos Raonic vs. (10) Kei Nishikori: Nishikori in 2. Based on their respective forms, only grass could save Raonic in this one. Nishikori is one of the best players on tour at the moment.
Feliciano Lopez vs. (Q) Dominic Thiem: Thiem in 3. Thiem may not be consistent enough to finish the job in straight sets, but the discrepancy in talent will be too much for Lopez to overcome. Although the Spaniard is at home, he is not at his best on clay.
(5) David Ferrer vs. (9) John Isner: Ferrer in 3. Amazingly enough, Isner is actually 0-3 against Ferrer on U.S. hard courts. This match, of course, is taking place in the exact opposite setting: in Spain and on clay. Still, Isner will make it tough on the No. 5 seed.
Ernests Gulbis vs. Marin Cilic: Gulbis in 3. Gulbis probably should win this in straights, based on the surface. But there a lot of things Gulbis should do that he doesn’t. Look for him to get a win after making it harder than necessary.
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I thought that it would take three sets for Ferrer to get the win, but he came out playing like a pitbull and just took it to Isner. It was obvious that Isner simply could not hang with him from the baseline. Ferrer’s serving stats are quite impressive. He seems to be rebounding from the Barcelona loss.
He will have some tough matches ahead. Nishi is playing some outstanding tennis right now and Gulbis is always dangerous when he’s on. I thought the Gulbis/Cilic match would go three sets and be competitive, but that was not the case.
I picked Giraldo to beat Murray but I did not expect it to be such a straightforward two set win. I got RBA and Nishi right.
The one I got wrong was Dimitrov beating Berdy. The Bird man played well to get that three set win. The other winners I got right, but not always the number of sets.
We have some potentially good quarterfinal matches coming up.