Casper Ruud and Francisco Cerundolo will be squaring off for the ninth time in their careers and for the second time in a Masters 1000 semifinal when they battle for a spot in the Mutua Madrid Open title match on Friday afternoon.
Ruud dominated their first-ever meeting in the 2022 Miami semis, but since then the tide has turned in Cerundolo’s favor. The Argentine has taken five of their last seven encounters to seize a 5-3 lead in the head-to-head series, most recently destroying Ruud 6-4, 6-2 earlier this spring in the Miami fourth round. They have split four previous hard-court contests at two wins apiece.
Cerundolo has quite simply looked like a different player since the start of the Sunshine Double in 2025. The word No. 21 reached back-to-back quarterfinals in Indian Wells and Miami before advancing to the semifinals in Munich. So far in Madrid he has ousted Harold Mayot, Francisco Comesana, Alexander Zverev, and Jakub Mensik while dropping just one set to Mensik in the quarterfinals. Since the start of the Indian Wells Masters, Cerundolo’s only losses have come to Carlos Alcaraz (twice–once in a second-set tiebreaker and once in three sets), Grigor Dimitrov in a third-set tiebreaker, and Ben Shelton 2-6, 7-6(7), 6-4.
Ruud had played five tournaments in a row without winning more than two matches in any location, but that drought has ended with this run at the Caja Magica. The world No. 15 is through to the semis following victories over Arthur Rinderknech, Sebastian Korda, Taylor Fritz, and Daniil Medvedev.
What’s especially concerning for Ruud is that he struggled in this matchup even when he was at the peak of his powers–reaching three Grand Slam finals–and before Cerundolo was playing at his current level. Now it’s Cerundolo who is firmly on the rise whereas Ruud has arguably declined. In fact, they will be separated by just one spot in the rankings on Monday if Cerundolo wins this tournament.
Ruud generally bullies opponents on clay with his huge forehand, but Cerundolo is one of the few guys on tour who hits that shot just as big if not even bigger than the Norwegian. Although the 20th seed may be a slight underdog on paper, it would be no surprise to see him power his way into a first Masters 1000 final.
Pick: Cerundolo in 3
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Ruud in 3
Rudd in 3! He will up his game for this one. Cerundolo will be tired after last round. Should be an exciting game.
3 from 18 BPs. Cerundolo keeps learning.