Dominic Thiem was the only player who could compete with Rafael Nadal on clay last season. Nobody has been able to do so in 2018, but Thiem will get another shot on Friday in Madrid. Alexander Zverev and John Isner are also in quarterfinal action.
(1) Rafael Nadal vs. (5) Dominic Thiem
Nadal and Thiem will be squaring off for the eighth time in their careers and for the sixth time in the span of seven clay-court tournaments dating back to last spring when they meet again in the quarterfinals of the Mutua Madrid Open on Friday. They faced each other in Barcelona, Madrid, Rome, and the French Open in 2017, and now in both Barcelona and Madrid this season. Nadal is leading the overall head-to-head series 5-2 and all seven of their previous encounters have come on the slow stuff. Thiem pulled off upsets at the Buenos Aires event in 2016 (in a third-set tiebreaker) and at last year’s Rome Masters (6-4, 6-3), but the Spaniard has since dominated 6-3, 6-4, 6-0 in the 2017 Roland Garros semifinals and 6-0, 6-2 a few weeks ago in Monte-Carlo.
Thiem has been hopeless in his last two clay-court efforts against Nadal, but he certainly isn’t alone. The world No. 1 has won 50 consecutive sets on this surface and no one during this stretch has even pushed him to a tiebreaker. Nadal has had no trouble continuing the trend in Madrid, where has defeated and Gael Monfils 6-3, 6-1 and Diego Schwartzman 6-3, 6-4. Thiem took a much more circuitous route to the quarters, outlasting Federico Delbonis 4-6, 6-3, 7-5 before overcoming Borna Coric 2-6, 7-6(5), 6-4. Both of the seventh-ranked Austrian’s wins over Nadal can be easily explained; the 16-time major champion was woefully out of form in the early stages of an injury-plagued 2016 campaign and he was out of gas last spring after winning Monte-Carlo, Barcelona, and Madrid in succession. Unfortunately for Thiem, who saw first-hand in Monte-Carlo, Nadal is having no such kind of issues this time around.
Pick: Nadal in 2 losing 5-7 games
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(7) John Isner vs. (2) Alexander Zverev
It will be a rematch of the Miami final when Zverev and Isner square off for the fifth time in their careers–and fifth time at a Masters 1000 tournament–on Friday. Zverev had been sweeping the head-to-head series 3-0 until Isner captured his biggest title with a 6-7(4), 6-4, 6-4 victory in Miami. Their only previous clay-court contest came last year in Rome, where the German won a semifinal affair 6-4, 6-7(5), 6-1 en route to his second-ever Masters 1000 triumph.
In typical Isner fashion, the ninth-ranked American has played five sets and five tiebreakers this week. He edged compatriot Ryan Harrison 7-6(1), 7-6(7) before getting the best of Pablo Cuevas 6-7(9), 7-6(3), 7-6(4). Zverev, on the other hand, coasted past Evgeny Donskoy and Leonardo Mayer in easy straight sets. Although Isner is serving up a storm in Madrid (54 aces, three double-faults through to matches), he has not generated a single break-point chance. He got away with it against Harrison and Cuevas, but that will not be good enough against the No. 2 seed and world No. 3.
Pick: Zverev in 3
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Rafa always has problems in Madrid with his BH.
Wanted Rafa to lose somewhere before French. Glad it happened here. Did not want him to go unbeaten to RG
Is there an injury concern? Thats all I am concerned about? Someone please tell
I think Rafa has to play a HC game at Madrid going forward if he wants to win it again. He won in the past because he’s just exceptionally good on any clay surface but now that he’s getting older, he’s more vulnerable to big hitters even on clay.
I think the altitude at Madrid had affected his FH and with so much at stake – 50 straight sets record, the no.1 ranking – it’s no wonder he felt pressurized and got nervous; once he lacks confidence in his shots, he’s more prone to making uncharacteristic errors. He looked unsure and confused out there, even in that Diego match; he rarely looked this way on clay, this could easily be his worst match on clay.
any injury concern lucky? I had very strong feeling he will lose today and frankly wanted him to lose somewhere before RG
Never heard anything about injury. Rafa was just unsure of himself, most of the time didn’t know what to do to counter Thiem’s powerful game.
Thiem wasn’t unbeatable in the match but Rafa was atrocious esp in his own service games to lose serves so often and it’s not all because of Thiem’s play, Rafa self destruct in some of his own service games; Thiem gifted Rafa some breaks but Rafa was courteously returning the favor.
not sure how his game regressed from MC to barcelona to madrid..anyways madrid has never been his fav hunting ground..its his least successful clay bastion
My take is that Rafa’s timing on his groundstrokes was way off today. Maybe he felt nervous plus the conditions here don’t really suit his game,I remember that last year Rafa defeated a well playing Thiem in a tight match.
IMO,Rafa’s still the clear favourite for RG. However,Thiem is once again in Rafa’s quarter in Rome. Hopefully the King of Clay can bring his best tennis should they met there.
what is this with thiem falling in rafas qtr every damn time..are they conspiring or what..ridiculous
expect djoko to be in rafa 4th round RG and Thiem qtr ..yes thats what they will do
Doesnt matter, in fact I hope Rafa meets and beats Djoko on clay this season, to avenge some losses when Rafa was down during 2015/2016.
The draw Gods aren’t definitely on Rafa’s side.I’m also pissed to know that Rafa will play Thiem so early again,what a joke!
Fed back to number one. Really worked his ass off to get that spot back 😂 condolences to Rafans tho. He’ll likely bounce back with a W in Rome.
Im not worried about Rafa meeting Thiem at Rome; Thiem rarely could play like this in every match.
To me, Rafa is not willing to change the way he plays on clay just to suit the Madrid clay. Its the same like in 2012 when they changed the Madrid clay to slippery blue clay. Rafa lost early there but won in Rome beating Djoko in the final and went on to win the FO.
If anything Rafa may win his 8th Rome title this year, as long as he’s fit and healthy, no injury.
For God sake Lucky,don’t even talk about a possible injury! I’m scared to death that his injury might be resurfacing at the most important part of the season for him!Anyone took a look at the press conference? Rafa might have said if there was something bothering him…
No injury, don’t worry.
I feel Rafa was playing better tennis at MC and Barcelona this year compared to 2017 even though he didn’t have much match practices before that. Rafa struggled at Madrid too last year in his first match vs Foggy and had to fight hard to beat Thiem in the final.
We sometimes forget that Rafa is not that young anymore and he may lose match(es) on clay more often than in the past (he had perfect records on clay ie, zero loss, in 2006 and 2010; in other of his good years he lost only one match – in 2007, 2008, 2012, 2013 and 2017). Rafa is already incredible with the results he had on clay last year at age 31.
He’s not playing any worse this year except at Madrid of course. I expect him to do well at Rome and RG, where conditions suits him more. This Madrid tournament, is more like a HC tournament, and look at how Edmund and Shapo play now, hard hitting and big serving, hit or miss tennis and one of them is going to reach the SF, Shapo that is.
I’m relieved now 🙂
Yeah,looking at Shapo you can almost say the surface is custom tailored for his game and here in Madrid he’s showing good maturity despite his young age,playing pretty solid tennis from the baseline and using well all the court, in angles and deepness. Above all,Shapo grew up on hard courts and just started to play on the red clay a few years ago.The fact that the surface is so different from the traditional clay is really helping him.
This is blessing in disguise for Rafa. I wanted him to pullout of Madrid due to its conditions: high altitude and fast courts, not matching Paris.
Early exit here will leave him primed for Rome and paris.
I will eat my words on weak era now for my lunch.
Surprised to see Thiem beat Rafa. And very happy for Shapo!
Don’t feel Rafa loss in Madrid is much of a worry regarding winning RG this year. Maybe even a much needed mimi-break for him. That whole never dropping a set streak is something he doesn’t need. But I see they, Thiem and Rafa could meet again in the QF in Rome. I wouldn’t pick against Rafa in Rome or RG.
Come on Sascha!! Puhleese win…
So does Thiem beat Anderson easily or does the game fool us all again and Anderson wins in 2??
Theim normally takes dives but I see him winning this easy. He has never beat Anderson (0-6) but all on hard surfaces
Anderson should take care of it without too much trouble
Great win for Thiem. Rafa obviously not at his best; not injured but definitely tired. But Thiem played the kind of game that is the only chance to win on clay against Nadal: hit it hard and go for your shots. Thiem missed plenty, but he connected enough to win the points and get Nadal a bit discouraged.
Rafa was bound to lose at one point, and obviously better here than at RG. I just hope the big hitters on tour take note and go for broke the next time they come up against Nadal on clay.
The big hitters are/were already playing like that, remember Sod? How many could beat Rafa on clay? They must wait for Rafa’s off day, like today, before having a chance.
Ok, maybe I got a little over-excited about the prospects of Rafa winning the clay swing without dropping a set…. However, if I had to guess, I would bet that this clay season will turn out just like last year- Rafa wins all but one tournament, with the one loss coming to Thiem in the QF of one of the Masters. Even if he somehow didn’t win Rome (which I doubt he won’t win it), I would still bet that he will absolutely run the table at RG like last year. Those courts, that atmosphere, best-of-five- that’s all Rafa’s world. End of story.
I said this was the one I was worried about. I also never thought Rafa seemed comfortable here. I just did not have a good feeling. It’s the way Rafa lost that bothers me. But I never thought he would undefeated through the whole clay season. He has not been dominant at Madrid. That’s where he can be taken down.
Now it’s on to Rome. I still have to watch the match. I want to see it for myself. It relieves some of the pressure.
Nny
Come and join the bracket if you are up to it! Rome bracket ATP is already done 😀
http://www.tennisdrawchallenge.com/
in case you lost the link…
Hope you are doing well.
rc,
I will check it out. Thanks for the link.
NNY, Rafa was playing very poorly by his standard; I don’t remember a clay court match where he was playing worse than this, not even his FO2009. Perhaps Barcelona 2015 vs Foggy? I don’t have good memory of that one, couldn’t even remember how Rafa lost that one, except remembering Rafa said his FH was ‘vulgar’ in the match on that day. Perhaps his FH was again ‘vulgar’ here at Madrid? Not only the FH but his serve was horrible too, hard to win with so many tools in your tool bag not working well.
lucky,
Thanks for that. I still will watch the match, although I don’t enjoy watching Rafa lose. I did hear the tennis channel commies talking about how Thiem was changing up his ROS position in Rafa’s second serve. How he took time away from Rafa.
If Rafa had to hsveva crappy match, then let it be now. The pressure will be off him now with the unbeaten streaks over. The conditions in Rome are better.
But it is concerning if you made a comparison to that match with Fog. That was really ugly and it’s surprising that Rafa’s forehand was so bad. I initially thought he was serving better, but Thiem was able to break him five times.
Thanks for your thoughts and analysis.,
😀
Nadal was not nearly as bad today as he was in 2015, including that loss to Fognini. Of course, Rafa did not play well by his standards, but Thiem gets some of the credit for that. He was able to dictate play in enough of the rallies, and take advantage of Nadal’s 2nd serve, to win.
Rafa’s FH was atrocious today, his serve too. Of course Thiem played his best match, he said it himself, he had to play at a special level to beat Rafa on clay.
Rafa was playing worse than their match of Rome 2017 imo, that match Rafa was clearly tired, this match Rafa looked clueless, undecided what shot to play, got hesitant and then either hit his shot late or worse still hit the wrong shot!
yes, Rafa was bad today. But again, only by his current standards. He still probably would have beaten most players comfortably.
In 2015, imo, he was more like Djokovic is today, or almost that bad, capable of losing to quite a few players. But I agree, he was definitely worse today than when he lost to Thiem in Rome last year. In any case, the fast Madrid surface is the worst for him as far as clay goes, so I don’t think this loss has any implications for how he’ll fare in the rest of the clay season.
In a way this match reminded me of his match vs Fed at IW last year! In that match Rafa didn’t look his usual self, looked totally clueless out there. In this match vs Thiem, once Thiem started his bombardment, Rafa turned defensive and looked clueless out there how to counter Thiem’s aggression, of course not help by his poor FH and serve.
Yay Zverev!!
Shapo vs Zverev should be fun.
Thiem vs Anderson? Gosh I wouldn’t bet on any match left in Madrid. Maybe ATP doubles, nah, not really.
Zverev did well to beat Isner. Finally he seems to be getting back on track.
I think A Zverev is going to another Masters final and maybe winning it again. Other than Thiem, I think Zverev looked to be playing very well beating Isner quite comfortably in two sets, not having to go the distance. Shapo is so hit or miss and Zverev is no Edmund; he’ll play with controlled aggression to beat Shapo.
Anderson’s big serve vs Thiem’s hard hitting, hmm, I think Thiem may lose this one, not unlike Rome last year, beating Rafa and then lost meekly to Djioko. Thiem not exactly a good returner of big serves, and Rafa was serving poorly giving Thiem plenty of looks into his service game; with Anderson I doubt he will have many chances. I also doubt that Thiem is good enough to reproduce his relentless hard hitting tennis for two consecutive matches.
This year’s Madrid tournament is for the big hitters, all four SFinalists are big hitters and big servers too.
Congrats to Dominic Thiem 😂👍.
So many excuses for Rafa. It’s sickening. Dominic beat him just like he has done before. Good job Dominick you earned this one.
What excuses?
And your point is? Rafa beat Thiem at MC and anywhere else just like he had done before, no wonder Rafa won 6 out of 9 times they met.
Please give me a break! No one is making excuses here! Least of all Rafa! He congratulated Thiem and said he deserved to win! So what is your problem?
Rafa has the advantage in their H2H. That’s a fact. Talk to me when Thiem beats Rafa at RG or at any slam!
That’s okay Nny!….Many peoples don’t like/hate Rafa…so,when he lost..they saw this opportunity to unleashed their hate in every possible way…It is possible too that tennispicks is just another Fedfan like Stanley who will savoured everytime rafa lost….U know,the old vengeance bcoz of a ehem ehem….25>15?This stats is sooooo hard to swallow u know….Uhuk!uhuk!
Very funny but please don’t insult me.
I am not savouring anything🤣 just congratulating D. Thiem 😂👏 for his victory.
😉🤣👍.
Hahahaha…Just teasin’ u Stanley!…Just like u teased us Rafans almost all the time…Calm down okay?