The Madrid title will come down to the top two players in the world on Sunday. Andy Murray is the defending champion, but Novak Djokovic has already lifted four trophies this season and is a heavy favorite to capture another.
Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray will be facing each other for the 32nd time in their careers when they battle for the Mutua Madrid Open title on Sunday.
Djokovic is leading the head-to-head series 22-9, but even the relatively lopsided nature of that scoreline hardly paints the real picture. The top-ranked Serb is a positively dominant 11-1 in his last 12 meetings with Murray. Although Murray ended an eight-match losing streak by triumphing in last summer’s Montreal final, Djokovic has since reeled off three more victories in succession. They most recently squared off in the Australian Open final, with Djokovic getting the job done 6-1, 7-5, 7-6(3).
Does Murray have any reason to think he can turn the tide back in his favor? He does, in fact, have a few results in his back pocket from which to take heart. The world No. 2 captured the Madrid title in 2015, beating Milos Raonic, Kei Nishikori, and Rafael Nadal in the process. He has been similarly outstanding this week–at least since dropping a set in his opener against Radek Stepanek. Murray hammered Gilles Simon 6-4, 6-2 in the third round and was off to the races, parlaying that result into straight-set defeats of Tomas Berdych and Nadal.
Djokovic has turned back into, well, Djokovic since falling to Jiri Vesely right away in Monte-Carlo. The No. 1 seed is through to the championship match thanks to straight-set wins over Borna Coric, Roberto Bautista Agut, Milos Raonic, and Kei Nishikori. Only Nishikori has managed to break Djokovic (once) or take more than four games in any set. Djokovic is now 32-2 on the year and his only loss outside of Monte-Carlo came via retirement.
Sending a message loud and a clear that he is firmly in line for his first-ever French Open title is something Djokovic was unable to do in Monte-Carlo. He should have little trouble sending that message on Sunday at the expense of an opponent who has been just about hopeless against him of late.
Pick: Djokovic in 2
[polldaddy poll=9410747]
So Murray showed that he still is capable of taking it to Novak and on a surface that favors him more, he can beat Novak. Wimbledon comes to mind…
Im not as optimistic as you VR about Murray’s chances vs Djoko at Wimbledon. Murray just couldnt outlast Djoko, and Murray is so used to grinding that even if he tries to be aggressive, he just cant sustain it for long.
Murray played like Rafa yesterday in this final – first set tentative like Rafa, second set up his level when giving chase, wanting to win the second set. Why cant Murray just play like that first set against Rafa at MC, in this final to make Djoko works harder? Why must he give chase all the time when facing Djoko?
I think Murray does fear Djoko and was afraid to lose so he played overcarefully in set one. Its only when he lost it that he up his level in set two, its very much like Rafa/Murray SF except the role was reversed for Murray.
At the end of the day, Murray is simply not good enough to beat Djoko, not even when Djoko has his shoulder bothering him nearing the end of the match.
very sad…..
It was frustrating that Novak kept finding his first serve on every single BP he faced in the final game.
Murray stepped up in this match. But 0-40 and he couldn’t get it done.
It’s about time that someone made it a battle against Novak.
Maybe next time Andy will get it done.
Stan would have gotten it done ….the problem with Stan is that he is vulnerable to losing to many other players.
I hope an on-fire Stan meets Novak in RG.
Murray is damn stupid! He was 40-15 up in that last game and managed to lose it and the match!
Djoko was helping him by giving him so many second serves to look at yet Murray couldnt capitalize! No wonder many dont see Murray as big four, rather leaves him out and called the other three the Big Three instead.
I think 34 yo Fed minus his knee injury would play better than this Murray when in a similar situation.
You are being too harsh on him… I thought he played very well. Did you see the first serves Novak kept coming up with on all those break points? Murray kept getting them back but Novak just always had the upper hand because of the serve. And, let’s not forget this is clay where nobody used to give Murray a chance. He has become consistently good now.
I agree with you…Murry was a challenge for Novak tonight. Hope he can beat him the next time.
meanwhile Joko is the king of tennis, there is no question about it…but someday he will fall and someone else will take his place 🙂
Hope there will be some of superiour tennis players and not only one dominating
Murray was 40-15 up, and he did manage to return some first serves of Djoko’s; he just tried to out rally Djoko after that, its not going to work.
If its Fed for example, Fed would rush to the net and put pressure on Djoko instead.
A top form Rafa would also be clutch and siezed the moment, not Murray. Murray is no.2 but not as good a no.2 as Fed or Rafa when they were no.2. Murray has never crossed the 10,000 ranking points mark, not even once.
agree with this. always been a big 3 really with murray in the slipstream.
muzzole matches are also not fun to watch with a kind of negative dynamic and energy.
didn’t watch the match.
just had a look at some twitter feeds. juan jose vallejo scathing about the quality of play except for nole playing very well in the first set. says third set was bad.
brad gilbert says that clay is now murray’s best surface! tennis exam question numero uno: is clay now murray’s best surface??!
No.
prayer to tennis gods: please let there not be a muzzole final at rg. if there is i am not going to watch.
Murray played great and fought hard. No need to be disappointed in him; after all he had defeated Nadal 2 years in a row. That was a great success on its own.
So what with defeating Rafa two years in a row? Rafa lost 27 times from 2015 till now; there were a good many players who were able to beat Rafa during that period.
I thought Murray did s good job of coming back in the second set and making a match of it. Novak played his best in the first set. I didn’t think he played as well in the second and third sets.
I can’t criticize Murray for this effort. He made it competitive. I also saw some chinks in novak’s armor in this match. He double faulted away a break. He made some errors that show he’s human.
Hopefully, Murray will beat him next time. It could happen in Rome. I just think it’s about time that novak’s rivals step up to challenge him.
I will say that I don’t enjoy Novak/Murray matches as much as Rafa/Novak or Fed/Novak matches. I do mean rafa before 2015!
I think Djoko was a bit bothered by his shoulder, hence his serve was affected in the last few games but being the champ that he is, he managed to serve very well at BPs.
Read what Murray said about playing Djoko and Rafa on clay. Rafa was giving Murray more time as Rafa played further from the baseline and hit with more spin and the ball was higher over the net. Djoko hit flatter, was standing close to baseline so Murray had less time to react.
To me Djoko has become like Fed, ie having a game that can succeed on any surface, doesnt even need much adjusting. Rafa OTOH, has to make adjustments to his game when playing on different surfaces. I would say its time that Rafa works on having an effective game that works on any surface, now that he’s older and less able to adapt.
Rafa takes so long between points because he has to think so hard before his every serve, its tiring mentally for him. Also chances of TV warning and then getting rushed make things even worse for him. Its time he finds that 2013 aggressive Rafa again and plays like that regardless of whether he’s having 2013 like results or not. Win or loss, at least be more aggressive and takes time away from his opponents.
I actually had the same thought as I watched the match today. Novak took time away from Murray and he wasn’t able to be as aggressive as he was against Rafa.
Novak does hit flatter and stays closer to the baseline than Rafa. In the first set, it seemed as though Murray could not get himself going because Novak wouldn’t give him any breathing room. Then in the second set Murray was able to change the dynamic a bit and pressure Novak more. But it isn’t easy when playing Novak to try and get the better of him and dictate points.
I also thought that murray’s first serve helped him a lot in this match. I remember one point in the match where Murray was down 0-40 and it looked like he would be broken for sure. But he reeled off four unreturnable serves to hold. That was a crucial moment in the match.
I did notice that Murray could not be nearly as aggressive against Novak as he was against Rafa. Murray had more time against Rafa and was able to move into the court more often to get the better of him.
It really hit me watching the match as to how much harder Murray had to work against Novak to find the time and opportunity to set up his shots. It was a stark contrast between how easily Murray could take control against Rafa.
Novak does seem to have the game to adapt to all surfaces. I wish that 2013 Rafa would reappear. He was so offensive minded and could transition to defense to offense incredibly well.
Rafa has more work to do if he wants to beat Novak again. Novak presents challenges to Rafa that other players do not.
Rafa during his heydays had no problem covering the court so despite staying away from the baseline, his speed around the court was incredible so whether his opponents had more time or not, it didnt matter to him. Even if the present Murray were to play Rafa in his heydays on clay, Rafa would still be able to beat Murray comfortably imo, as Rafa was simply so quick to cover his position.
Now that Rafa is older and slower, he just can’t do the same of staying back and covering so much ground. I hope he and his team realize this and so help him to adjust his position on court and get him to move forward more often.
He has to move forward when playing against Djoko, if not he would be giving Djoko too much space and time to move forward. In their rivalry, whoever plays more aggressively has the better chance of winning, lately its always Djoko who does that.
Nadal needs to start trusting his timing more, especially on the serve and forehand. It appears as though he sometimes muscles the ball too much in order to find the balance between power and control these days, and it is what is making him tired.
And this is essentially the big difference I see in Novak since the end of 2014. He has a lot more faith in his timing and therefore, achieves two things: he is able to play more aggressively when required, and is also less tired through a match.
I guess its because he’s slower now and still couldnt get his timing right. I guess he still has some more work to do to get his timing right, after adjusting for his own loss of foot speed.
It’s because nole is more confident than Rafa. They are basically the same age.
I don’t believe that Rafa suddenly got older after the Australian Open final in 2014.
He suddenly looked poor on clay leading up to 2014 FO and even won that while not playing at his best and was a continued slide after that.
He just stopped trusting his body and was the final straw that lead to his admitted mental problems.
Recovery is a long process now.
Murray and Nole are just 12 months younger and tennis peak age is skewing older again unlike ten years ago.
Rafa’s problems are 95% mental.
Rafa had no mental problems vs either Querrey or Sousa! He was just playing short, not moving well, missing his FHs and looking slow on the court. If he had mental problems he would have lost those like he did last year on numerous occasions. His belief and mental strength made it possible to regroup and win.
No, Rafa has always been at disadvantage on Madrid clay…in addition, he got tired physically playing long matches in two demanding tournaments (it’s been a while since he’s been able to do it!) and especially emotionally: won two titles (with little expectations from the tennis world for him to achieve it given his fiasco in Miami)…
I agree though that Rafa does not trust his body! Almost losing a set to Querrey was really alarming thing and no wonder Rafa did not feel confident further on in the tournament…
And this is not to say that Rafa does not feel nervous! Of course he does but not because he has anxiety problems but because he is realistic about his game: his serve is vulnerable, he needs more time to think and risks penalties, he will never be able to play flat tennis which becomes the trademark these days, opponents can hit through him if they hit hard enough and can sustain the high level of tennis, if raining his top spins get neutralized, etc. A lot of issues for Rafa to deal with on the court. But I know he has been working on solving those…two titles indicate that he is on the right path…
I think Rafa’s nerves go way beyond what is normal to the point that it still severely impacts his game. Just less frequently than last year.
But when it occurs, it looks exactly the same as it has the last three years.
Suddenly it’s all about excuses. I don’t get it. Rafa got tired because he finally went deep in a few tournaments? What is Rafa, fragile China doll? He’s a professional tennis player! If he is tired now after playing a few complete tournaments, then how on earth is he going to get through the rest of the year?
Now it’s all about rafa being exhausted, because God forbid it can’t be about anything mental or anxiety! Oops, I said the “A” word!
Tennis is do much a mental sport. It’s no shame for any player to be struggling with some mental difficulties. Then we hear about this supposed new brand of tennis where everyone hits flat and can outplay Rafa! Really?
Rafa’s game has served him well throughout all the years of his career. He doesn’t need to reinvent the wheel. Rafa’s slump has been due mainly to anxiety and mental problems! In his own words! So let’s accept what Rafa has said and not try to come up with all these excuses.
I don’t know if the loss to Murray means that Rafa has gone backwards. Or if it was simply due to nerves or a recurrence of anxiety. It may just have been a bad day at the office. It can happen. We will know when we see him in Rome.
It’s worth mentioning that Murray played pretty crappy in that match, too. Neither guy was at his best. I do believe that Rafa could have won that match, but couldn’t get out of his own way. Maybe Rafa will shake it off and come out playing better in Rome.
Very well said nny.
+ 1 nny and hawks. on the same page as you.
@ NNY,
who are you to diagnose Rafa? Do you have a medical degree to speak about Rafa having “mental problems and anxiety”?!
I speak about Rafa having issues as any other athlete…Novak was clearly tired in MC…people get tired you see, even if you do not accept it! Novak needed rest and refused to play Barcelona! And we all know how fit Novak is!
Those are not excuses! They are only human…
natashao,
Rafa has said himself that he had a “problema mental” last year and was anxious during matches. Do you ever read what he says? Or do you just cherry pick what you want to and ignore the rest!
Hawkeye has posted rafa’s comments on this site too many times to count! There really is no need to keep reposting what Rafa has said.
So before you start accusing me of diagnosing Rafa, read up on his own words! He admitted it! End of story!
I can express my opinions and just because you don’t like them doesn’t give you the right to attack me.
i have just seen a video in which rafa described himself over the last year as ‘ i have not been mentally well’ (his words).
these are strong words, his own words and really ought to put the matter to rest.
Rafa never said he suffered of anxiety disorder! Nobody here including you and myself is allowed to spread lies and speculations! His words indicate that he was not confident and was not mentally strong not that he was and as you say STILL is suffering of anxiety disorder!
Until Rafa or anyone from his team announced publicly that Rafa suffered any type of anxiety disorder I and the rest of the Rafa fan base will treat those rumors as pure speculations, lies or intended attacks on Rafa’s integrity! For me those speculations equal doping allegations of those who are genuine Rafa’s haters!
This means that you can give your own OPINION on Rafa supposedly suffering of the anxiety disorder but you can not say Rafa said it because he never did! And be careful with your playing “doctors”! Rafa may sue you!
Enough said!
You have to factor in Rafa’s frequent injuries hence despite being only one year older, the mileage and toll on his body is much worse than those of Djoko or Murray. You just cant go by physical age.
Why Rafa wasnt/isnt playing well on grass these days? Its because his knees were affected by injuries and so he no longer could bend low to dig up balls on grass.
Rafa has his stem cell treatments but other than he and his team, no one knows for sure is his back alright now or is he still coping with back issues.
Its obvious that his timing of his FH was off for most of 2015, his foot speed was slower too. He’s improving in those areas but no one knows whether he can still get back to his previous high level, that of 2013 for example, after all his injuries.
exactly lucky! You know what I am talking about! I completely agree with you!
Anyone who has been into sports knows what kind of scars continuous injuries leave not only on the body but on the soul as well…
We don’t know if Rafa will ever return to be close to his 2013 level given the history of his injuries…but to diagnose Rafa with “anxiety disorder” is disrespectful even if speculated by a non-Rafa fan…
I am not at all worried about Rafa suing me! LOL! Anyone who would even dare to say that knows nothing about Rafa. People who presume to be supposedly loyal, true blue Rafa fans end up showing just how little they really know about him.
Hysterical and petty personal attacks are things that Rafa would never do! He is a gracious, decent, humble, kind person who has no meanness in him at all.
Rafa’s comments about his mental problems and battle with anxiety are out there on the record for anyone to see. Pretending that Rafa never said it, and distorting and misrepresenting what I said about his problems, is just a rather desperate attempt to harass and instigate and insult. Those tactics will not work with me.
I do think it’s quite disturbing that the same few have now decided to speak for Rafa and threaten others here with a lawsuit on rafa’s behalf. Rafa would never ever do that. Comparing saying that Rafa has had anxiety, NOT a disorder, to being the same as accusing him of doping, is pure character assassination itself.
Maybe I should sue! I feel utterly disgusted by this persistent attempt to blatantly distort and defame what I have said and others who have said the same.
Oh and it’s not about Rafa! Anyone who would threaten another Rafa fan on this site pretending that it was in defense of Rafa, is no Rafa fan at all!
Haha, I see you’ve softened now! It’s no longer disorder, a? Now it’s only anxiety or nervousness which is fine with me because that was exactly what I was saying and you attacked me saying that I was giving
excuses.
BTW, I have doctors in my family and they’ve explained to me in detail what ‘anxiety disorder’ means! Some of you here accusing Rafa of being seriously ill is just plain stupid thing to do even on the forums! Our Champion deserves better than that!
Good that you realised you’ve gone too far! Better late than never, right?
Cheers!
I challenge anyone here to find where in any of my posts I ever said the words “anxiety disorder”! Good luck with that!
Some people just need an excuse to fight about something and then pretend that somehow they are right! LOL!
I will leave it up to others to reread what I said in my previous posts and decide for themselves what I said.
It’s too bad that some will jump on anything and try to make something out of nothing. The truth about what Rafa went through has been out there for quite a while. Again, Rafa has said it himself! So if I am lying, then so is Rafa! Now how could a so-called Rafa fan accuse him of lying? I certainly wouldn’t!
Nice try, though!
@nny,
Then you need to say that to those with whom you agreed with (hawks and amy) who claim Rafa suffers from anxiety disorder, instead of attacking me for stating that Rafa is only nervous but nit seriously ill.
Hope this helps!
natashao,
I don’t need to do anything just because you say so. I don’t take orders from you. I will express my opinions and if you persist in being disrespectful to me, then I will ignore your comments entirely. I am here to discuss tennis in a reasonable way with like minded people.
Nny gets it.
That said, nats you are hung up on semantics.
You can call me or others what you want. I really don’t give a monkey’s.
I think mental problema in context of what Rafa has said and done equates to an anxiety disorder.
@ hawks,
well, I don’t! I don’t think Rafa is ill! I think he is nervous about his game as he is no longer superb as he used to be. I think his injury time off and everything he has been through couse his mental barrier not the other way around! And this is where we differ!
NNY disagreed with my points. Then she said she never thought about anxiety disorder, so I had to respond.
I know what you think and I understand your view, despite the fact that I disagree. But she keeps agreeing with you and attacking me and then changes her opinion. Sorry to drug you into this, but she jumped in and attacked me for no obvious reason…and she has been doing it a lot…
I respect your opinion too.
Just for clarity and generally speaking an anxiety disorder can be a result of past negative experiences such as injuries so the order of what happens when does not preclude the possibility of an anxiety disorder.
And my opinions are mine and not fact obviously. Should not need to be stated but I’ve explained this before.
Rafa stating that he’s had a mental problema and that he could not control it on court last year are facts and not opinion.
Hawkeye,
Thanks for intervening here because I give up on trying to have a discussion when whatever I say is being distorted repeatedly.
You and I have had our differences, but somehow we are able to do it without rancor.
I have not used the term anxiety disorder. But I do not think that term means mental illness in a derogatory way. So this is an argument over semantics or just for the sake of arguing.
I believe that there are issues related to aging that have also affected Rafa. But the slump he was in for so long was related to anxiety on the court and also loss of mental focus.
I am not sure if this loss to Murray is a step backwards. That’s what I have said and been consistent about it. I want to see how Rafa looks in Rome. The stat that stood out to me was 2 out of 13 break points converted in that match. This is something that we have discussed as an issue that Rafa needs to work on. His serve and converting break points. Neither player was good in that match.
It remains to be seen if this is a setback in rafa’s comeback or not. I like to leave all possibilities open. That is why I equivocate at times. It’s unfortunate that someone else cannot appreciate that kind of thinking.
I will see how Rafa does in his first match and maybe then we will know more.
Thank you for always hearing me out and being reasonable and respectful of my point of view. 🙂
@ nny,
that would be for the best! I am tired of you attacking every point I make even if we end up to be on the same page. I always opposed the idea that Rafa is seriously ill suffering from anxiety disorder and I will do so until Rafa and his team prove me wrong. It’s my right to do so. As far as I understood you share the same view although you kept attacking me. The whole discussion only proved that your opinion is the same as mine. But if you dislike my posts that much than please just ignore it! Thank you.
@ hawks, 4;33 PM,
thank you! You know how much I appreciate your opinion but I really hope you are wrong about this! If that’s the case we will never see Rafa fully recovering and that is what I refuse to accept.
I read a lot about anxiety disorder and talked to the professionals about it, mainly because you brought it up and made some good points about it(i.e., symptoms like sweating, etc.) But I don’t think Rafa has panic attacks…I just do not think Rafa is suffering from this. And of course it’s an uneducated opinion…and what Rafa described happening to him in 2015 did not seem the same as having anxiety disorder. It looked more like regular nervousness and lack of confidence in his less favorite conditions and in anticipation of a meeting with his nemesis…now we also learned that he was injured…that wrist injury is another couse of concern…
Late in his duel with Murray there was an expression on Rafa’s face that broke my heart and left me with a horrible sense of foreboding. He looked grim and years older: as Lucky and Natasha discussed above his history of injuries, physical problems and constantly playing with pain for all these years have surely left deep psychological scars. He now faces not only good players in the top 10 but also the ferocious gang of much younger players plus people like Sousa etc. who suddenly find a new level when they face Rafa on the other side of the net. i fear the prognosis is not good 🙁
@ ed, 9:16 AM,
I know…I so agree with you…it is heartbreaking to see Rafa struggling with his own belief and trust in his own abilities…I still have hopes although it’s becoming obvious that Rafa has way too many issues to deal with on court…let us try to be optimistic and hope for the best…
I could have forgiven Murray for the pasting he gave Rafa – who let’s face it was way off form – if he had gone on to deny Djokovic the title. I still don’t understand why Rafa went to pieces in that match just when we all thought he had come out of the slump unless there are physical issues as well as mental scars.
I feel Rafa will play better at Rome, unless of course he proves me wrong!
I’ll forget about Madrid – I feel Rafa was weighed down by expectations, pressure to perform well facing Murray who gave him a hard time at MC and who beat him last year. The prospect of meeting Djoko in the final might have also weighed in his mind.
Rafa seems to have so much worries these days, no longer that carefree, fight till the very end, do or die warrior that we used to know. Its Djoko whom people are calling the warrior with unwavering fighting spirit these days, nobody talks about Rafa that way anymore.
One thing about Rafa, he talks about his tennis matches as if they are fights, battles – he always says that he ‘fighted’ a lot. Its like he’s so tensed up and preparing for war/battle each time. I really feel that for all the talent that Rafa has, its not being properly tapped, and so he has some technical flaws in his game, resulting in him having to fight so hard to win, eg his BH isnt properly developed and so he has to run around it so often to hit his FH instead. While his topspin FH is awesome, he struggles to hit a flatter FH when playing on quicker surface. His serve, the less we talk about it the better.
Its Rafa’s mental strength that sets him apart from the rest and despite his flaws, has achieved so much and has two great rivalries against the other two ATG players. He’s 46-36 vs Fed/Djoko, best H2H record among the three (Djoko’s 48-45; Fed’s 33-46!).
Rafa is so dependent on his mental strength, we see that once Rafa’s mental strength collapses, his game falls apart. The TV rule certainly makes it worse for Rafa. We’ll see what team Nadal can do this time to get Rafa back to consistent winning ways again.
+1
All players are dependent on mental strength. It is a prerequisite to success on court.
SO dependent!
So there does seem to be agreement as to the importance of mental strength. That has always been one of rafa’s greatest strengths.
It’s a given that tennis is so much a mental sport. Rafa wasn’t able to make the tactical adjustments last year that he has made throughout his career. So obviously something was wrong. Rafa would do the same thing over and over again. He was struggling mentally and seemed to have major lapses of concentration.
Whatever anyone chooses to call it, whatever name is used, something was wrong with Rafa! He was not himself all last year and the beginning of this year, Rafa was always at his best when the match was on the line, crunch time. But he lost that and only recently has it reappeared.
I don’t see anything wrong with discussions related to whether or not Rafa has put his troubles behind him. When he has a loss like the one at Madrid, I think it’s fair to have that discussion. Sometimes we can be of two minds about it. Sometimes it may be more than just one thing that is going on.
If Rafa can keep it together and bounce back in Rome, then that loss may well have been just a blip on the radar. He’s got a very tough draw, so we will have to see how he handles it.
I saw part of the match Troicki vs Nishikori…amazing how much good serve can help a player…Viktor’s serve is doing so much damage to Nishi…one lousy game from Nishi and Viktor was able to break him and take the first set…