London semifinals preview and prediction: Federer vs. Goffin

The year-end championship was Roger Federer’s personal playground from 2003 to 2011, when he captured the title six times. Now the stomping grounds once again appear to be his as the 2017 event heads into semifinal Saturday.

Federer is 16-0 lifetime against the other three remaining players at the Word Tour Finals, including 6-0 at the expense of upcoming opponent David Goffin. The Belgian has tried and failed against his idol four times on hard courts–and often in less than competitive fashion–since they first squared off in a memorable contest at the 2012 French Open. Goffin stole the first set of that showdown, but he is 1-14 in his last 15 sets against Federer. They most recently faced each other a few weeks ago in Basel, where the Swiss cruised 6-1, 6-2 on his eventual way to the title.

Nobody has been able to beat Federer this fall, a stretch that has seen him recover from a back issue that plagued his U.S. Open–in which he suffered a quarterfinal loss to Juan Martin Del Potro. The world No. 2 is 13-0 in his last three tournaments with titles in Shanghai and Basel to go along with victories this week over Jack Sock, Alexander Zverev, and Marin Cilic. All three round-robin foes were competitive, but Federer still improved to 55-12 for his illustrious World Tour Finals career and his hopes for a seventh title are very much alive.

Even though Goffin has not been 100 percent physically since a freak ankle injury at Roland Garros, he has managed to produce an impressive last three months. The world No. 8 reached the fourth round of the U.S. Open and owns a 19-6 record this fall with back-to-back titles in Shenzhen and Tokyo. Goffin opened in London with a 7-6(5), 6-7(4), 6-4 upset of Rafael Nadal, got blown out by Grigor Dimitrov 6-0, 6-2, and then beat Dominic Thiem 6-4, 6-1 in a virtual quarterfinal clash on Friday.

“I’ve never found a key to beat Roger,” captain obvious commented. “Honestly, I don’t know what to do tomorrow. But I’m going to try something…something different; something that I’ve never done in the past. I will try to do my best to play a better match than in Basel, for sure. In Basel, it was not easy. He played well. He didn’t miss. He was really aggressive, as always. He returned so well…. I hope that tomorrow he’s not going to play the same match.”

That hope is slim, because Federer is in fine form right now and this–as Goffin pointed out–is his best surface along with grass. The 19-time major champion has done no wrong indoors so far this fall, and there is no reason to think he will run into any trouble on Saturday.