London semifinals preview and prediction: Federer vs. Goffin

The year-end championship was Roger Federer’s personal playground from 2003 to 2011, when he captured the title six times. Now the stomping grounds once again appear to be his as the 2017 event heads into semifinal Saturday.

Federer is 16-0 lifetime against the other three remaining players at the Word Tour Finals, including 6-0 at the expense of upcoming opponent David Goffin. The Belgian has tried and failed against his idol four times on hard courts–and often in less than competitive fashion–since they first squared off in a memorable contest at the 2012 French Open. Goffin stole the first set of that showdown, but he is 1-14 in his last 15 sets against Federer. They most recently faced each other a few weeks ago in Basel, where the Swiss cruised 6-1, 6-2 on his eventual way to the title.

Nobody has been able to beat Federer this fall, a stretch that has seen him recover from a back issue that plagued his U.S. Open–in which he suffered a quarterfinal loss to Juan Martin Del Potro. The world No. 2 is 13-0 in his last three tournaments with titles in Shanghai and Basel to go along with victories this week over Jack Sock, Alexander Zverev, and Marin Cilic. All three round-robin foes were competitive, but Federer still improved to 55-12 for his illustrious World Tour Finals career and his hopes for a seventh title are very much alive.

Even though Goffin has not been 100 percent physically since a freak ankle injury at Roland Garros, he has managed to produce an impressive last three months. The world No. 8 reached the fourth round of the U.S. Open and owns a 19-6 record this fall with back-to-back titles in Shenzhen and Tokyo. Goffin opened in London with a 7-6(5), 6-7(4), 6-4 upset of Rafael Nadal, got blown out by Grigor Dimitrov 6-0, 6-2, and then beat Dominic Thiem 6-4, 6-1 in a virtual quarterfinal clash on Friday.

“I’ve never found a key to beat Roger,” captain obvious commented. “Honestly, I don’t know what to do tomorrow. But I’m going to try something…something different; something that I’ve never done in the past. I will try to do my best to play a better match than in Basel, for sure. In Basel, it was not easy. He played well. He didn’t miss. He was really aggressive, as always. He returned so well…. I hope that tomorrow he’s not going to play the same match.”

That hope is slim, because Federer is in fine form right now and this–as Goffin pointed out–is his best surface along with grass. The 19-time major champion has done no wrong indoors so far this fall, and there is no reason to think he will run into any trouble on Saturday.

Pick: Federer in 2

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25 Comments on London semifinals preview and prediction: Federer vs. Goffin

  1. I Love Rafa, but the GC tennis that Berdych played beating Federer and Djokovic b2b was some of the best tennis ive ever seen him play, at Wimbledon in 2010, sadly he ran out of steam to put up much of a fight in the final against Rafa, Lisicki in 2013 was the same, sorry off topic i know but just wanted to throw that in ….

    • Grigor Dimitrov and J. Sock have to believe that they can win WTF now that Fed is out, I hope this match is competitive.

      I won’t be surprised if D. Goffin wins the whole thing but i am rooting for J. Sock to win it all.

    • Federer couldn’t raise his level from the RR stage, which was far from great, possibly because of tiredness or the bad back surfacing again. Goffin took advantage of that and stepped up his game to the occasion. He said in his pre-match conference that he would bring something new this time and he totally made it, playing more agressively than he usually does against Federer and coming forward to the net, which surprised Fed, imo.

      • David Goffin won fair and square, no excuses.
        I don’t think he won because R. Federer has an injury, he won because he was they better player 2day.

        Congrats to Goffin!

  2. Goffin! Take nothing away from David. He just beat the top 2 players in the world in the same tournament. He said before the match that he was going to do something different, and he did, even after losing the first set. He upped the pace, the aggression, and when serving for the match he didn’t fold like he did when playing Nadal, but came up with some huge serves!

    Roger not at his best, obviously, but Goffin had something to do with that. Props for the biggest win of his career.

  3. Federer and Rafa Nadal are the greatest modern rivals in tennis, but they’re also great friends.
    I’m personally a big fan. Did an illustration of these guys a while back.
    You can check it out and download it for free if you want on the following link:

    https://goo.gl/fvi7HY
    Let me know what you think

    • They are NOT friends.

      Interview with Rafa in Basel on October 19, 2014 (in German):
      Tages-Anzeiger, October 20, 2014: ¤¤ Roger and I get along, but we are not friends.¤¤
      http://www.tagesanzeiger.ch/sport/tennis/Roger-und-ich-verstehen-uns-sind-aber-keine-Freunde/story/11831419

      An excerpt, translated from German by Chris Boardman:
      Question: “How would you describe your relationship with him [Federer]?”
      RAFA: “We understand each other well. But we’re not friends. Not because we are rivals. But because my friends are from Mallorca. Friends are those people who are there every day of your life. With whom one is always in contact. But I always had a good relationship with Roger, always had great respect for him. And he for me. We have achieved many positive things together, for example our exhibition matches around the world for our foundations. I hope we will also maintain this good relationship beyond our careers.”

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