The proverbial second week of the Indian Wells Masters gets underway in round four, and it will begin with a bang in the form of Jannik Sinner vs. Ben Shelton. Carlos Alcaraz and Fabian Marozsan are also on the Tuesday schedule.
(16) Ben Shelton vs. (3) Jannik Sinner
Nobody has been able to beat Sinner this season, and right now it’s hard to see anyone beating him in a war of attrition from the baseline. The tactics are clear: serve huge, go big, and try to take the racket out of his hands. Few players are capable of executing such a plan, but Shelton is one who can do it. In fact, he did it last fall–upsetting Sinner 2-6, 6-3, 7-6(5) at the Shanghai Masters. They also faced each other three weeks later in Vienna and it was another competitive contest, as Sinner earned some revenge with a 7-6(2), 7-5 victory.
Sinner and Shelton will lock horns again on Tuesday, this time in the fourth round of the BNP Paribas Open. Since his Shanghai loss to the 16th-ranked American, Sinner is 27-1 with a Grand Slam title (Australian Open), a Davis Cup title, a Nitto ATP Finals runner-up, and three wins over Novak Djokovic. The third-ranked Italian has extended his current winning streak to 17 matches with Indian Wells defeats of Thanasi Kokkinakis and Jan-Lennard Struff. Whereas Sinner dominated, Shelton earned his place in week two the hard way–outlasting Jakub Mensik and Francisco Cerundolo in thrilling three-setters. The 21-year-old can challenge anyone on any given day when his serve is clicking, but Sinner is well rested, supremely confident, and looking almost unbeatable.
Pick: Sinner in 2
Fabian Marozsan vs. (2) Carlos Alcaraz
It will be a rematch of one of the biggest upsets in recent tennis history when Alcaraz and Marozsan meet again on Tuesday. In the last 32 at the 2023 Rome Masters, Marozsan stunned Alcaraz 6-3, 7-6(4). Ranked 135th and virtually unheard of at the time, the Hungarian capitalized on an opponent who was coming off back-to-back clay-court titles in Barcelona and Madrid, perhaps lacking motivation with Roland Garros on the horizon.
Marozsan will likely see a much different Alcaraz on the other side of the net this time around. The second-ranked Spaniard has completed only one tournament in 2024 (he retired from his first match in Rio de Janeiro), so he should be eager to get matches under his belt and defend as many Sunshine Double ranking points as possible (Indian Wells title, Miami semifinals last year). So far this fortnight Alcaraz has ousted Matteo Arnaldi and Felix Auger-Aliassime; he has won his last four sets 6-0, 6-1, 6-2, and 6-3. Marozsan’s first week in the desert saw him defeat Jurij Rodionov, Nicolas Jarry, and Thiago Seyboth Wild. The 58th-ranked Hungarian is a tricky opponent who always brings plenty of drop-shots and general variety to the table, but if Alcaraz continues to play aggressively then he likely won’t give Marozsan enough time to work his junk-balling magic.
Pick: Alcaraz in 2
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