Indian Wells R3 previews and predictions: Alcaraz vs. Auger-Aliassime, Tsitsipas vs. Tiafoe

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime is a fantastic matchup on paper, but how will it transpire on the court? We will find out when third round-action in Indian Wells begins on Sunday. Stefanos Tsitsipas and Frances Tiafoe are also on the schedule.

(31) Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. (2) Carlos Alcaraz

Alcaraz and Auger-Aliassime will be squaring off for the fifth time in their careers when they battle for a spot in week two of the BNP Paribas Open, the season’s first Masters 1000 tournament. Surprisingly, Auger-Aliassime leads the head-to-head series 3-1. However, that can be easily explained. Alcaraz’s first loss came via retirement at the 2021 U.S. Open and his next two setbacks came at the end of the 2022 campaign (Davis Cup and Basel) after he was worn out mentally and physically on the heels of his triumph at Flushing Meadows. The 20-year-old Spaniard won their most recent encounter 6-4, 6-4 at this same Indian Wells tournament during 2023 quarterfinal competition.

Another straightforward result in Alcaraz’s favor is likely on the menu. Playing his first official match since retiring in the Rio de Janeiro opening round with an ankle injury, the world No. 2 understandably needed some time to get going. But once he did, Alcaraz looked like his real self. He bounced back from a slow start to defeat an in-form Matteo Arnaldi 6-7(5), 6-0, 6-1 on Friday night. Auger-Aliassime did well to beat Constant Lestienne 6-4, 6-1, but the 31st-ranked Canadian is just 7-6 this season–and 3-4 in his last seven matches. Because the underdog is well short of his peak level these days, Alcaraz–with a match under his belt–should roll.

Pick: Alcaraz in 2

(18) Frances Tiafoe vs. (11) Stefanos Tsitsipas

This is one of those matchups that make you think to yourself, “well, someone has to win; someone has to make it to the fourth round.” Neither Tsitsipas nor Tiafoe is in completely terrible form, but both are struggling at the moment. Tiafoe has been especially bad in 2024; in five tournaments the 18th-ranked American has won more than a single match just once–and even that event (Delray Beach) ended with a listless 6-2, 6-2 loss at the hands of Tommy Paul.

Tsitsipas owns a decent 10-4 match record so far this year, but he has not defeated anyone ranked better than No. 39. The 25-year-old Greek has dropped outside of the top 10 (11th), so he should be motivated to start climbing back up and put himself in position to get a top-eight seed at Grand Slams. Tsitsipas opened with a 6-3, 6-2 rout of Lucas Pouille on Friday, while Tiafoe took down Dusan Lajovic 6-3, 6-3. With the head-to-head series tied 3-3 (including one Laver Cup match and one qualifying contest) and both men struggling with confidence, this figures to be competitive. In the end, Tsitsipas is the slightly more reliable player and these are pretty good conditions for his game.

Pick: Tsitsipas in 3