Houston and Marrakech preview and predictions

Yes, it may be hard to believe, but the clay-court swing is already here. The seven-week buildup to the French Open is underway with a pair of 250-point tournaments in Houston and Marrakech before things really start to heat up in Monte-Carlo, Rome, and Madrid. An impressive draw in Houston features Miami champion John Isner as the top seed while also including Sam Querrey, Jack Sock, and Nick Kyrgios. The Marrakech title should be completely up for grabs among the likes of Albert Ramos-Vinolas, Kyle Edmund, Philipp Kohlschreiber, and Richard Gasquet.

U.S. Men’s Clay Court Championship

Where: Houston, Texas
Surface: Clay
Points: 250
Prize money: $557,050

Top seed: John Isner
Defending champion: Steve Johnson

Draw analysis: In Sock’s five previous trips to Houston, he has a second-round finish, a quarterfinal, a semifinal, a runner-up, and a title. His last three results, in order, are title, runner-up, and semifinal. But the same Sock has not been on display in 2018, during which he has compiled an abysmal 3-6 record with a grand total of zero back-to-back match victories. The 16^th-ranked American appears to have a tough draw, too, with potentially Yoshihito Nishioka in his opener, Ryan Harrison in the quarters, and Isner in the semis. Isner will hope to maintain momentum in a top section that is loaded with Americans (also Steve Johnson, Ernesto Escobedo, Frances Tiafoe, and Mackenzie McDonald), although his second-rounder will come against either Dustin Brown or Henri Laaksonen.

Kyrgios is back in action for just his fourth ATP tournament of his 2018 campaign. The 22-year-old Australian, who has been solid when healthy (10-3 record), is on a collision course for a spicy quarterfinal showdown against Fernando Verdasco. During Verdasco’s Miami dustup with Thanasi Kokkinakis, Kyrgios threw himself into the fray on Twitter and got into a war of words with the Spaniard—who promptly blocked him. Elsewhere in the bottom half of the bracket, Querrey finds himself in a quarter along with fellow Americans Tennys Sandgren, Donald Young, and qualifier Stefan Kozlov.

First-round upset alert: Ernesto Escobedo over (6) Steve Johnson. Johnson won their only previous encounter 7-6(5), 6-3 on the hard courts of Acapulco in 2017. Escobedo no longer registers inside the top 100 like he once did, but he is physically stronger at 21 years old now and he has won a decent three ATP-level matches this season. It is really Johnson’s own doing that he is susceptible to an upset in this one. The 56nd-ranked American struggled throughout the second half of 2017 and he is just 6-8 so far this season.

Hot: John Isner, Frances Tiafoe

Cold: Jack Sock, Nick Kyrgios, Steve Johnson, Donald Young, Dustin Brown

Semifinal predictions: Yoshihito Nishioka over Frances Tiafoe and Guido Pella over Nick Kyrgios

Final: Nishioka over Pella

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Grand Prix Hassan II

Where: Marrakech, Morocco
Surface: Clay
Points: 250
Prize money: 501,345 Euros

Top seed: Albert Ramos-Vinolas
2017 champion: Borna Coric (not playing)

Draw analysis: The Grand Prix Hassan II is no stranger to featuring champions from well outside the top 10 or even top 20 or 30. Since Juan Carlos Ferrero and Stan Wawrinka triumphed in 2009 and 2010, respectively, the list of winners includes Pablo Andujar, Tommy Robredo, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, Martin Klizan, Federico Delbonis, and Borna Coric. This year’s chapter is unlikely to be any different. At No. 23 in the world, Ramos-Vinolas is the No. 1 seed ahead of Edmund, Kohlschreiber, and Gasquet. Alexandr Dolgopolov is playing for the first time since the Australian Open, while Marrakech’s unseeded contingent is highlighted by Jan-Lennard Struff, Joao Sousa, Gilles Simon, and Andreas Seppi.

Ramos-Vinolas could be challenged early by Struff and Dolgopolov, with Kohlschreiber in the second quarter of the draw alongside Sousa and Robin Haase. Gasquet, Simon, and Benoit Paire may feature prominently in French-heavy third section. Paire and Simon have to go head-to-head right off the bat, with the winner possibly to face Gasquet in the quarterfinals. Edmund, who has struggled since reaching the Aussie Open semis, could be seriously tested in round two by either Seppi or Radu Albot.

First-round upset alert: Paolo Lorenzi vs. (8) Mischa Zverev. This would, of course, be an upset only according to seed. Based on Zverev’s current slump and the clay surface, Lorenzi has to be considered the real favorite in this one. The veteran Italian, who missed out on being seeded in Marrakech by just two ranking spots, won their only previous meeting—and that came on an indoor hard court (3-6, 7-6(6), 6-0 two years ago in St. Petersburg).

Hot: Joao Sousa, Marton Fucsovics, Radu Albot, Mirza Basic

Cold: Kyle Edmund, Alexandr Dolgopolov, Mischa Zverev, Paolo Lorenzi, Pablo Andujar, Jiri Vesely

Semifinal predictions: Jan-Lennard Struff over Joao Sousa and Andreas Seppi over Benoit Paire

Final: Struff over Seppi

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Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!