March Madness–Masters 1000 events in Indian Wells and Miami–has come to an end. The spring hard-court swing is over and now the pros are taking their talents to clay. In some cases, they are taking their talents back to clay; a whole host of players already endured the long grind on the Golden Swing just a month ago in places like Rio de Janeiro, Buenos Aires, and Santiago. Now the real clay-court season–which concludes with the French Open–is underway in Houston, Estoril, and Marrakech.
Casper Ruud, Hubert Hurkacz, Frances Tiafoe, and Tommy Paul are among those taking the court in what should be an entertaining week.
U.S. Men’s Clay Court Championship
Where: Houston, Tex.
Surface: Clay
Prize Money: $642,735
Points: 250
Top seed: Frances Tiafoe
2022 champion: Reilly Opelka (not playing)
Draw analysis: Unsurprisingly, there is a distinct American flavor in Houston. Six of the top eight seeds and every one of the top five hails from the host nation, led by Tiafoe, Paul, John Isner, and Brandon Nakashima. A first-round bye as the No. 4 seed is where the good news ends for Nakashima. He likely has to open against Cristian Garin in his opening match; Garin is arguably the best clay-court player in the entire field and he is 8-1 lifetime in Houston with a title in 2019 and a semifinal showing in 2021. The Chilean might even have the edge in a possible semifinal against Paul, the No. 2 seed.
Tiafoe’s path at the top of the draw is much clearer. It should be smooth sailing for him at least until the semis, where Isner and J.J. Wolf are potential opponents. It will probably be Wolf…if the former Ohio State standout can get past Jordan Thompson in round one.
Quarterfinal predictions: Frances Tiafoe over Jason Kubler, J.J. Wolf over John Isner, Cristian Garin over Tomas Martin Etcheverry, and Tommy Paul over Tomas Machac
Semifinals: Tiafoe over Wolf and Garin over Paul
Final: Garin over Paul
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Millenium Estoril Open
Where: Estoril, Portugal
Surface: Clay
Prize money: 562,815 Euros
Points: 250
Top seed: Casper Ruud
Defending champion: Sebastian Baez
Draw analysis: Although there are much bigger and better tournaments on the near horizon during the European clay-court swing, Estoril should be a fun one. Ruud and Hurkacz lead the way as the top two seeds and they are joined in a respectable field by Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, Roberto Bautista Agut, Sebastian Baez, Ben Shelton, and Dominic Thiem.
With the top-seeded Ruud and the defending champion Baez both in the top quarter, that is by far the most difficult part of the draw. Ruud has really struggled, so the door could be open for Baez to win a second consecutive Estoril title and also his second title of 2023. In the bottom half of the bracket, Davidovich Fokina is in the best form of anyone and nobody else who is particularly strong on clay is playing well at the moment.
Quarterfinal predictions: Sebastian Baez over Casper Ruud, Nuno Borges over Dominic Thiem, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina over Diego Schwartzman, and Albert Ramos-Vinolas over Hubert Hurkacz
Semifinals: Baez over Borges and Davidovich Fokina over Ramos-Vinolas
Final: Baez over Davidovich Fokina
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Grand Prix Hassan II
Where: Marrakech, Morocco
Surface: Clay
Prize money: 562,815 Euros
Points: 250
Top seed: Lorenzo Musetti
Defending champion: David Goffin (not playing)
Draw analysis: The Marrakech field is far from spectacular and there isn’t even a big number of clay-court specialists on hand, so this title is completely up for grabs. With No. 2 seed Dan Evans not exactly at his best on the red stuff, the bottom half of the draw is especially wide open. Although Nicolas Jarry doesn’t have a first-round bye as the No. 8 seed, he probably has to be considered the favorite. The Chilean was outstanding on the Golden Swing, even capturing a title at home in Santiago. Jarry may have a tough second-round test on his hands in the forme of Jaume Munar, but if he advances through that contest then he could go all the way.
At the top of the bracket, the opening match for No. 1 seed Lorenzo Musetti could be a tricky one. Hugo Gaston’s game works well on clay and he has enjoyed plenty of French Open success in recent years. Juan Pablo Varillas is another unseeded floater worth keeping an eye on in Marrakech.
Quarterfinal predictions: Lorenzo Musetti over Richard Gasquet, Botic Van de Zandschulp over Juan Pablo Varillas, Federico Coria over Tallon Griekspoor, and Nicolas Jarry over Dan Evans
Semifinals: Musetti over Van de Zandschulp and Jarry over Coria
Final: Jarry over Musetti
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