Since turning pro almost two decades ago, Rafael Nadal has carved out one of the greatest careers in the history of tennis. His 19 Grand Slam titles has him just one behind Roger Federer for the most in men’s singles history, and it’s at Roland Garros where he has done the vast majority of his damage. Nadal has won the French Open an extraordinary 12 times—four more than any other player has ever won a single Grand Slam—and this year will look to tie Federer’s record with a 13th in Paris and 20th overall.
Even at 33 years old, it’s almost impossible to tip anyone else to triumph on the red clay of Paris. Nadal has raised aloft the Coupe des Mousquetaires every year since 2005 with the exception of 2009, 2015, and 2016. The latter of those came as a result of a wrist injury, meaning he has lost just twice in a decade and a half at the event. And since that 2016 withdrawal, no one has gotten especially close. Nadal destroyed Stan Wawrinka and Dominic Thiem in the 2017 and 2018 finals, respectively, and while Thiem got a little closer last year—taking the second set off the champion—Nadal responded with 6-1 set victories in each of the third and fourth sets to close out yet another dominant tournament.
Unsurprisingly, spread betting on tennis has him listed as the overwhelming favourite to do it all again, but there are a couple of names worth mentioning who have the potential to cause him some trouble. Thiem might be the most likely of them. The 26-year-old Austrian has been a Grand Slam winner in the waiting for some time now and got as close as ever at this year’s Australian Open, where he lost to Novak Djokovic in a thrilling five-set final.
That was Thiem’s first finals appearance outside of the French Open, and it’s on clay where he’s looked most likely to break his duck. He’s made the final in each of the past two years and the semifinals in each of the past four, and with a game perfectly suited to the red surface and at the peak of his powers, he is primed to take the leap and win a slam.
If the odds are anything to go by, Djokovic is—alongside Thiem—the only realistic threat to dethrone Nadal. The Serb sits only two Grand Slam wins behind Nadal with 17, is the No. 1 player in the world, and at 32 years old probably has the most tennis left ahead of him of the Big Three. While he, like many, has been a victim of Nadal’s dominance at Roland Garros, he has nonetheless been a consistent threat there, winning once and making the final on three other occasions. His incredible athleticism and defensive prowess make him an extremely tough opponent on this surface, as he is on every surface, and having made at least the quarterfinals every year since 2010, it’s safe to say Djokovic will once again be in the mix.
Typically now would be the time when Federer would get a mention, but the Swiss legend will miss the tournament with a knee injury, meaning Thiem and Djokovic are comfortably the two most likely to upset Nadal. There are, however, a number of players waiting in the wings who would feel they are deserving of a mention. The up-and-coming Stefanos Tsitsipas has improved at each of the three French Ope’s at which he has appeared, and so prodigious is the young Greek talent that he is capable of knocking off anyone on any given day.
Likewise, it seems only a matter of time before 22-year-old German Alexander Zverev salutes at one of the Grand Slams, and the French Open seems as likely a place as any—at least whenever the post-Nadal era begins. He has reached the quarterfinals in each of the last two years there, and after an impressive semifinal appearance at the Australian Open just a couple of months ago he seems primed to take the next step.
Of course, as is the case every year, all of these names will be chasing Nadal as the Spaniard looks for a record-equalling 20th Grand Slam title. One of the greatest players of all time on any surface, his brilliant footwork, the extraordinary topspin he imparts on his groundstrokes, and his excellent defense make him the ideal clay-court master—making him the most dominant player at a single tournament in the history of the game.
None of that is to say the result of this year’s event is a foregone conclusion. Although Nadal doesn’t appear close to ready to renounce his throne, there are a number of talented young stars capable of usurping him, while the ever-present threat of Djokovic is as prevalent as ever. Nadal will head in as deserved favorite, but plenty of far stranger things have happened in sport.
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