French Open R1 preview and prediction: Zverev vs. Nadal

The first round of the 2024 French Open will feature a player who has won the tournament 14 times going up against a player who is among the favorites to win it this time.

It’s also a rematch of one the 2022 tennis season’s most memorable moments.

For the first time since their Roland Garros semifinal showdown two years ago, Rafael Nadal and Alexander Zverev will be squaring off on Monday afternoon in Paris. Zverev infamously retired from that match after suffering a terrible injury in the second-set tiebreaker, giving Nadal a 7-3 lead in the head-to-head series. The Spaniard has won five of their six clay-court encounters, with Zverev’s only such win coming in the 2021 Madrid quarterfinals.

Nadal went on to capture yet another title after getting the retirement from Zverev, but this version of Nadal certainly isn’t the same as the one who last lifted La Coupe des Mousquetaires. Due to a recurring hip problem, the 37-year-old has played sparingly over the past two seasons. His clay-court comeback in 2024 includes a fourth-round performance in Madrid, but he lost his second match in both Barcelona and Rome–the latter while taking just four total games off Hubert Hurkacz.

Ten years Nadal’s junior at 27, Zverev’s comeback from his own injury has been spectacular. After missing the remainder of the 2022 campaign, he climbed back up to No. 7 in the rankings by the end of 2023 and currently registers at No. 4. The German is 28-9 this season and coming off his second Rome Masters title.

“I think both of us, if we would have a choice, we would choose differently, for sure,” Zverev commented. “I really wanted to play him one more time–one more time. Because I didn’t want my last memory to be me rolling off in a wheelchair off Philippe-Chatrier. I really wanted to play him here. I did not want to play him in the first round; I wanted to play him in the semifinals, finals–a later stage of the tournament. 

“For me, in my mind I’m going to play peak Rafa Nadal. That’s what I expect him to be. I expect him to be at his absolute best.”

“The reaction is something that I expected in some way,” Nadal said of the draw. “When you are
not seeded, anything can happen. Of course on paper (it) is not the best draw. I play against one of the toughest opponents possible. He came here winning the last event–a Masters 1000; it’s not
a small one. So what can I do? That’s the draw. Just try to be ready for it.”

Even if Nadal is ready from a physical standpoint, it’s a terrible matchup for him. Like Hurkacz did in Rome, Zverev can serve huge, dictate play from the baseline, and keep Nadal on defense. Most importantly, Zverev is a 6’6” opponent who wields one of the best two-handed backhands in the sport. The King of Clay’s topspin forehand doesn’t work against Zverev like it does against most guys.

Nadal will undoubtedly put up a fight, but this looks like a first-round test that will be too tough.

Pick: Zverev in 4

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