French Open QF previews and picks: Federer vs. Wawrinka, Nishikori vs. Tsonga

Tsonga 1Another all-Swiss showdown between Roger Federer and Stan Wawrinka is set for Tuesday at Roland Garros. Kei Nishikori and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga are also battling for a semifinal spot.

(8) Stan Wawrinka vs. (2) Roger Federer

Federer and Wawrinka will be squaring off for the 19th time in their careers when they clash in the French Open quarterfinals on Tuesday. The head-to-head series stands at a dominant 16-2 in favor of Federer, but it is a more even 4-2 on clay. Wawrinka’s wins have both come in Monte-Carlo; 6-4, 7-5 in 2009 and 4-6, 7-6(5), 6-2 in last season’s title match. Federer, however, restored order to the proceedings in their three most recent matches. The 33-year-old Swiss prevailed 3-6, 7-6(5), 6-4, 6-4 in the Wimbledon quarters, survived a 4-6, 7-5, 7-6(6) thriller at the World Tour Finals, and coasted 6-4, 6-2 earlier this spring in Rome.

Neither man has been severely tested this fortnight. Federer has advanced with victories over Alejandro Falla, Marcel Granollers, Damir Dzumhur, and Gael Monfils–dropping just one set to Monfils in the process. They had to complete their match on Monday because of darkness but Federer wasted little time sealing the deal in sets three and four. Wawrinka booked his spot in the last eight by taking out Marsel Ilhan, Dusan Lajovic, Steve Johnson, and Gilles Simon. The world No. 9’s last seven sets have ended 6-3, 6-4, 6-3, 6-2, 6-1, 6-4, and 6-2. Nonetheless, it is hard to see Wawrinka turning in yet another outstanding performance. His inconsistency throughout 2015 and his past futility against Federer cannot inspire confidence.

Pick: Federer in 4

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(5) Kei Nishikori vs. (14) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga

Not too much unlike Wawrinka, Tsonga seems to be peaking in Paris. The injury-plagued Frenchman had been just 6-5 on the season prior to this fortnight mainly because of an arm issue. But he is picking up the pace in front of his home fans, whom he treated to a semifinal showing in 2013. Tsonga’s trek through the draw includes defeats of Christian Lindell, Dudi Sela, Pablo Andujar, and Tomas Berdych with the loss of just one set to Berdych.

Similar to Wawrinka (although to a much lesser extent), the world No. 15 is now running into a relative nemesis. Nishikori leads the head-to-head series against Tsonga 4-1 after scoring a 6-1, 4-6, 6-4 victory in this same city last fall (at the BNP Paribas Masters). They have never faced each other on clay, which should favor Nishikori–whereas grass, for example, may give an edge to Tsonga. An in-form world No. 5 is 34-7 on the season with straight-set wins this fortnight at the expense of Paul-Henri Mathieu, Thomaz Bellucci, and Teymuraz Gabashvili. Nishikori also got a walkover past Benjamin Becker in the third round. He is well-rested, supremely confident, and should be able to withstand Tsonga’s power on a somewhat slow surface.

Pick: Nishikori in 4

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53 Comments on French Open QF previews and picks: Federer vs. Wawrinka, Nishikori vs. Tsonga

  1. One of my most vivid memories as a FEDAL fan was a healthy Tsonga knocking Rafa out of the semis in AO 2008.

    The man just upset Berdych Sunday and he’s in front of his home crowd. I know Nishikori has been having an amazing couple of clay seasons, but I also imagine that Paris crowd is going to be rooting even harder for Tsonga because Monfils and Gasquet are out now. I mean, check the comments here on this post; they’re going to want somebody to root for.

    https://twitter.com/rolandgarros/status/605410962930339840/photo/1

  2. Provided Mrs.Federer is court-side it’s a NID contest. One glance at RF’s box and WaWa will buckle 🙂

    Federer in 4

  3. Unlike the majority of French players Tsonga thrives on playing in front of his home crowd but not even they will be able to lift him high enough to get past Kei.

    Nishikori in 4

  4. Some words from rafa:

    “I think I played great first two sets – very, very happy. My serve today was the worst thing. I didn’t start enough points with advantage, and that’s why he had the chance to break me. But I’m happy. I am enjoying again on court because I’m able to play more days with calm. I don’t have this problem of nerves I suffered from at the start of the year, and that gives you the possibility to compete well.”

    ^^So at least rafa feels calm on the court now and his performance yesterday reflected that! The only blemish was the inability to close out the match. But, I think that was more about rafa’s inability to find good serves than about falling to nerves!

    “He’s by far the best player in the world. He’s brimming with confidence; he has exceptional form. He’s won almost all the matches since the start of the year. He has only two defeats. I love Roland Garros. I love the tournament. I love the courts. I will pull out all the stops to win the match. I feel competitive. I will fight to the bitter end. I don’t know if it will be enough. I don’t read a crystal ball. So if I play well and if my opponent plays better than me, I will shake hands and congratulate and then I will move on.”

    ^^He sounds fairly optimistic by rafa standards 😉

    • Also Rafa may say that he’s not bothered too much by his rankings, but a loss here could mean he is out of the top 10, potentially meeting a top 8 opponent in R16 at Wimbledon. That would serve as an extra motivation (maybe pressure too)!

    • I like Rafa’s attitude. I also appreciate that he is giving Novak credit for his success this year. That is class!

  5. if rafa can find good first serves consistently and improve his forehand a little more, novak will likely suffer the same fate. BUT, given the current scenario, I do think Novak is the slight favourite.

  6. If Stan plays like the way he has played this past week, he will win the contest. He has too much firepower! Will depend a lot on his mentality as he approaches the match.

    Roger has played pretty aggressively this week, will need to continue to do so. He can’t handle Wawa’s groundstrokes from the baseline especially since he is a step slow and his FH has gone AWOL!

    • Ha..here it is

      Sanju says:
      June 1, 2015 at 9:14 am
      “So abhi whats ur take on Nole Rafa (if Rafa gets past Sock)”

      Reply
      abhirf says:
      June 1, 2015 at 12:53 pm
      “Been busy with my exams. Haven’t seen much of Nole or Rafa. Only seen Fed’s matches.
      From what little I have seen, I think Nole will have the edge in QF. Rafa’s serve still seems a chink in his game. With Nole’s returns being as good as ever, Rafa will have to serve pretty darn well. Also, Rafa’s FH is far from its best. He has got just 1 more matc to figure it out.

      More than that, I think it will be a mental battle. a victory in this match could potentially mean a Title here will play on Nole’s mind. He has not performed pretty well in those situations in the past 2-3 years at the slams. If Novak can play with calm, I think he will get the job done.
      As for Rafa, I haven’t actually seen him play his best on clay after that FO 2013 SF 5th set. I thought Novak really pushed him to his best that time. Let’s see if he can do the same this time. I’m just hoping that it doesn’t turn out to be like last years final here in which both the guys played nervy tennis right till the end.”

  7. Hard to focus on Tu matches when one of the most dramatic quarter-finals in recent ATP history is just 24 hours away….but nonetheless, I like Nishi and Fed in 3 straight.

  8. How can they put both QFs on at the same time for the ladies and the men? It’s hard to concentrate on bothe at the same time.

    • Predictions appeat to be wornmg on ALL counts. Hope the pundits are wrong as well!!! Cant believe Roger will may go home in straights!!! Even if he wins I cant see him beating Tsonga and going to win Final….impossible!!! I really thought Monfils was going to beat him though!

  9. After beating Stan in Rome……..only to find out that Stan was playing possum all along……hehe!!! Lets see who comes out on top……Kei took third set!!! French crowd must be quiet now!!!

    Quiet Tuesday…..but perhaps rowdy Wednesday?!!! Vamos!!

  10. other than rafa, Stan is the only player in the draw who has the game to beat djokovic. I am rooting for stan to reach the final.

    Stan’s backhand is 10 times better than fed’s. Fed was totally overpowered from the baseline.

    • So in the past 1.5 years, Stan has beaten all the members of the Big 4 in the Slams!
      Hope he does make it to the final!
      He will provide more competition to Rafa/Nole than Tsonga or Kei will.

      • Kei definitely did beat him, but Nole played pretty low throughout the US swing last year. Also don’t know how well is Kei playing here.
        Add to the fact that the previous 4 Nole-Stan encounters have all been 5 setters!
        So yeah, I have my reasons to favour Stan.

  11. I could not believe how Stan was able to push Fed around in this match. He was hitting him off the court. Where did this Stan come from? He hasn’t looked good all year. But now he is in his first RG semifinal!

    • Well he played very good in that QF against Nadal in Rome but people were too much focussed on Nadal’s game. I still think Nadal played much better in that match than he played through complete clay swing! Wawa’s firepower from the back of the court just blasted him off.

      Wawa reached SF in AO too (lost to Nole in 5).
      He has been consistent at the slams lately.

  12. Putting in my coward’s notice well in time: I’m not watching THE QF tomorrow, I’ll peep in for the result way after 21h00 Paris time.

    Vamos Rafa!

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