French Open final preview and prediction: Wawrinka vs. Nadal

Rafael Nadal and Stan Wawrinka will be squaring off for the 19th time in their careers when they collide in the French Open final on Sunday afternoon.

Nadal is dominating the head-to-head series 15-3, including 6-1 on clay and 1-0 at Roland Garros. Wawrinka, however, has won three of their last six meetings and he got the best of their only previous Grand Slam title match via a 6-3, 6-2, 3-6, 6-3 decision at the 2014 Australian Open. The two veterans have not faced each other since last spring, when Nadal cruised through a Monte-Carlo quarterfinal encounter 6-1, 6-4.

The fourth-ranked Spaniard triumphed at Monte-Carlo two months ago for his 10th title there, accomplished the same feat in Barcelona, and he is now bidding for No. 10 on the red clay of Paris. He also triumphed in Madrid. All of that has a resulted in a 23-1 clay-court record in 2017, with his lone blemish coming against Dominic Thiem in the Rome quarterfinals. Nadal avenged that defeat without any trouble on Friday, clobbering the 23-year-old Austrian 6-3, 6-4, 6-0. He preceded that victory by taking out Benoit Paire, Robin Haase, Nikoloz Basilashvili, Roberto Bautista Agut, and Pablo Carreno Busta all without dropping a single set.

Three of the four semifinalists were perfect in total sets this fortnight prior to Friday: Nadal, Thiem, and Wawrinka. The third-ranked Swiss rolled over Jozef Kovalik, Alexandr Dolgopolov, Fabio Fognini, Gael Monfils, and Marin Cilic before running into serious trouble against Andy Murray. Wawrinka came within four points of a four-set defeat but eventually survived the longest match of the tournament to date 6-7(6), 6-3, 5-7, 7-6(3), 6-1 in four hours and 34 minutes. Less than three weeks ago he was just 16-8 overall in 2017, but he is now in the midst of a 10-match winning streak that also includes a clay-court title in Geneva.

“Stan won the last event in Geneva and now he’s in the final here,” Nadal commented. “So he’s [on] a good run. He’s in the final. So it’s the toughest opponent possible here.”

“I think to play Rafa on clay in French Open in a final is probably the biggest challenge you can have in tennis,” Wawrinka countered. “He’s the best player ever on clay. It’s for sure gonna be really difficult. But [at] the end of the day, it’s the final; the pressure is on both players. No one goes on the court thinking he has no pressure. We both want to win the title.”

The 32-year-old has apparently never felt such pressure, as he as a perfect 3-0 lifetime in major finals (2014 Australian Open, 2015 French Open, 2016 U.S. Open). But Nadal also has plenty of numbers going for him: he is 78-2 lifetime at the French Open with nine titles.

“Nine actually is my favorite number,” Nadal admitted after the semis. “But don’t get me wrong–I would prefer 10 over nine, no doubt.”

His preference will likely become reality on Sunday. The former world No. 1 bas been dominant at Roland Garros for more than a decade, has dominated this entire clay-court swing aside from one energy-deprived loss, and is extremely well-rested have lost a mere 29 games this whole tournament.

Pick: Nadal in 3

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49 Comments on French Open final preview and prediction: Wawrinka vs. Nadal

  1. Imagine Serena Williams with Ostapenko’s talent…scary good.

    Ostapenko has more talent in her pinky finger.

    • Ostapenko’s game is too one dimensional, just hits as hard as possible, it’s either hit or miss, so the high number of winners and UEs. She needs to add in more varieties into her game as she matures as a player, her power game is not sustainable as she grows older.

    • Kavita proves me right yet again.

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  2. Stan is a chance.

    After his 2015 RG win and seeing how high a level he can play on this surface, this is exactly where we wanted today, Stan facing off against the King of Clay at the top his game.

    We have now got what we wanted, enjoy the moment and let’s see who prevails.

  3. Can’t believe the RG final is a day before my final CA exams :/ will be tempted to watch the finak though. Good luck to Rafa !!

    • You can’t not watch VR!!!!!! Besides there’s no way you will be able to concentrate on your books this afternoon. And fingers crossed Rafa is going to do it in three sets.

      Fingers crossed, too, for you tomorrow.

  4. An extra motivating voting factor is Stan will remember how Nadal use to bully Fed around in the RG finals. There will be a bit of revenge factor in this if he still has some in the tank after is 2014 Australian Open demolition.

    • Ha Jim, what has Rafa bullying Fed got to do with Stan? If possible Stan would also want to bully Fed! Did he give in to Fed at FO2015? No, he beat Fed in straight sets, as Fed was one of the road blocks to his slam title! If Stan wasn’t injured, he would also want to beat Fed at the AO this year, he won’t be fighting hard to level the match at 2-2 after being two sets down if he didn’t want to beat Fed. So stop talking about Stan as if he’s such a hero that he would want a revenge against Rafa for Fed’s sake.

  5. 2014 RG Champion vs 9-time RG Champion.

    Wawrinka will feel like he’s defending his title and legacy to some degree.

    • You bring in these motivational factors and you just look at Stan. What about Rafa? His slight basically started in the AO ’14 final. While he still managed to win RG that year he never was the same for almost three seasons. And he explicitly said how much the AO loss against Stan and especially the way it came about hurt him emotionally. Now he has a chance to exorcise these demons, and he can do it on his terms in his living room so to speak. While that might add some extra nerves at the beginning of the match, once he settles down, he will fight with everything he can bring on the table and then some.

    • If it is 2014 RG champion against 9 time RG champion – well, then it’s Rafa against Rafa, lol! Maybe, that’s correct, though 😉

  6. Hahaha, it takes a big man to pickup on people’s typos to ridicule.

    Motivation is much more important for Wawrinka I feel. He’s the one that can play like he’s outside the top 10 or no.1 in the world.

    Plus he’ll need to be motivated out of this world to compete with Nadal until the end.

    • Oh, you can’t take a harmless joke in good stride or can you ? 😉

      Totally disagree with you about the motivational aspect. Sure, Stan will be very motivated, no doubt about it. But you tend to look only at Stan in your analysis. But today there will be two players on court. In my book Rafa has more to lose than Stan, and Rafa has actually a fairly good track record at setting things straight after previous losses. The only one where it really didn’t work for a while used to be Novak.
      Anyway, all our talking won’t influence the outcome of the match. IMO neither will astrology. Each player can do without the help of the stars.

  7. Nadal has been careening towards a date with destiny, marching into a 10th final in the French capital without dropping a set. As ruthless as the Spaniard had been in streaking to the titles in Monte-Carlo, Barcelona and Madrid, he has been arguably even more impressive at “Roland Garros, relinquishing just 29 games – an average of just five games lost in six matches. It is the second-fewest number of games dropped in reaching a Grand Slam final in the Open Era, behind only Bjorn Borg’s run to the 1978 Roland Garros final.”

    http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/news/roland-garros-2017-final-preview-wawrinka-nadal

  8. The way I see it, Rafa is definitely a huge favourite because of the history and aura he has over here. If we look at how the both of them played at SF, then Wawa definitely played at a much better level than Rafa. But that could also be attributed in large to Thiem hardly pushing Rafa to play good. He kinda self destructed himself out there. One thing which was very much evident in the SF’s was the nervousness with which Stan & Rafa played their SF’s. I haven’t seen Wawa trying to pump himself up so many times in a match. Usually he remains much less dramatic. As far as Rafa’s match against Thiem was concerned, it was quite surprising to see Rafa make so many uncharacteristic errors in a match after playing so well over the fortnight.

    So based on their SF matches, I expect both of them to be pretty nervous for a major part of 1st set and we may actually get to see some good tennis from both by the end of 1st set/ start of 2nd set.

    The way I see this match playing out (rating out the chances)
    Rafa to win in 3 (30%)
    Rafa to win in 4 (40%)
    Rafa to win in 5 (20%)
    Wawa to win in 4 (10%)

    So it’s 9:1 in favour of Rafa for me.

  9. Also want to mention out one point about Stan. He isn’t exactly a ball basher type of player. He does uses the slice and spin in the rallies pretty well and then pulls a trigger the moment he gets a chance to. It’s the defensive prowess of the big guys that forces him to play 3-4 power shots consecutively which creates a bit of an image of him as a ball basher which he is not. Thiem needs much to learn from Stan in that aspect. Being patient and then pulling the trigger will bring him much more laurels than with his current strategy of looking to hit out on every ball. Needs to minimise the risk on low percentage shots.

  10. Absolutely he’s not a ball basher, he’s finely balanced between power and control. He just has so much shot-making ability that his mind and body have to be in total sync to play at his full potential.

    • But Stan doesn’t have the finesse of Fed, Rafa and Murray. Djoko has also improved very much on his volleying and his net approaches and has added more varieties into his game. I think all four of them are above Stan in their varieties and shot making, even when they may not match his fire power.

      • There’s no doubt about that. Stan lacks the variety of big 4.
        Past 3 to 4 seasons, he’s just found a good balance in his game mentally to be patient, hang in there in the match and impose his strengths on an opponent as soon as he gets the chance to do so (unlike many other talented players on the tour)

  11. The worst case scanario for Rafa is that he gets nervous and loses the first set. But if he falls behind, the beast mode will appear as it did in RG 14 finals.
    If Rafa’s off forehand gets on a roll, nobody can stop him.

    • MA,

      I am here! I am ready! But I am very nervous!

      Help me get through this!

      Good luck Rafa! Take La Decima and make your place in history!
      ??

      • Nny!…oh!don’t be nervous okay?If we nervous,we can’t enjoy the moment…and today is a very very special moment for us and for Rafa…Let’s rumble with Rafa Nny!!Woohooo!!!

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