Rafael Nadal and Stan Wawrinka will be squaring off for the 19th time in their careers when they collide in the French Open final on Sunday afternoon.
Nadal is dominating the head-to-head series 15-3, including 6-1 on clay and 1-0 at Roland Garros. Wawrinka, however, has won three of their last six meetings and he got the best of their only previous Grand Slam title match via a 6-3, 6-2, 3-6, 6-3 decision at the 2014 Australian Open. The two veterans have not faced each other since last spring, when Nadal cruised through a Monte-Carlo quarterfinal encounter 6-1, 6-4.
The fourth-ranked Spaniard triumphed at Monte-Carlo two months ago for his 10th title there, accomplished the same feat in Barcelona, and he is now bidding for No. 10 on the red clay of Paris. He also triumphed in Madrid. All of that has a resulted in a 23-1 clay-court record in 2017, with his lone blemish coming against Dominic Thiem in the Rome quarterfinals. Nadal avenged that defeat without any trouble on Friday, clobbering the 23-year-old Austrian 6-3, 6-4, 6-0. He preceded that victory by taking out Benoit Paire, Robin Haase, Nikoloz Basilashvili, Roberto Bautista Agut, and Pablo Carreno Busta all without dropping a single set.
Three of the four semifinalists were perfect in total sets this fortnight prior to Friday: Nadal, Thiem, and Wawrinka. The third-ranked Swiss rolled over Jozef Kovalik, Alexandr Dolgopolov, Fabio Fognini, Gael Monfils, and Marin Cilic before running into serious trouble against Andy Murray. Wawrinka came within four points of a four-set defeat but eventually survived the longest match of the tournament to date 6-7(6), 6-3, 5-7, 7-6(3), 6-1 in four hours and 34 minutes. Less than three weeks ago he was just 16-8 overall in 2017, but he is now in the midst of a 10-match winning streak that also includes a clay-court title in Geneva.
“Stan won the last event in Geneva and now he’s in the final here,” Nadal commented. “So he’s [on] a good run. He’s in the final. So it’s the toughest opponent possible here.”
“I think to play Rafa on clay in French Open in a final is probably the biggest challenge you can have in tennis,” Wawrinka countered. “He’s the best player ever on clay. It’s for sure gonna be really difficult. But [at] the end of the day, it’s the final; the pressure is on both players. No one goes on the court thinking he has no pressure. We both want to win the title.”
The 32-year-old has apparently never felt such pressure, as he as a perfect 3-0 lifetime in major finals (2014 Australian Open, 2015 French Open, 2016 U.S. Open). But Nadal also has plenty of numbers going for him: he is 78-2 lifetime at the French Open with nine titles.
“Nine actually is my favorite number,” Nadal admitted after the semis. “But don’t get me wrong–I would prefer 10 over nine, no doubt.”
His preference will likely become reality on Sunday. The former world No. 1 bas been dominant at Roland Garros for more than a decade, has dominated this entire clay-court swing aside from one energy-deprived loss, and is extremely well-rested have lost a mere 29 games this whole tournament.
Pick: Nadal in 3
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WWW?
Agree with Ricky, Rafa in 3.
Nadal in 3
Nadal will make Wawa hit the extra ball. Unlike on hardcourt, Wawa can’t hit the winner, Nadal will dig in on defense and Wawa will feel rushed too often and go for too much. If Wawa stays patient, Nadal will be able to dictate terms with the forehand. Unfortunately, it’s an unbeatable recipe even if Wawa plays lights out tennis.
Rafa in 4. Wawa is unbeaten in a grand slam final and is not intimidated by Nadal so I expect this to be closer than many anticipate but Nadal will always be in control. I also think Murray played Wawa into peak form physically and mentally.
Jim, I disagree that Stan can’t hit the winner on clay. He absolutely can, off both wings but particularly the FH. It’s not easy, obviously. But that’s basically what he did against Novak two years ago, who was not an inferior defender to Rafa or Murray today (if anything, the biggest difference amongst those three is that Rafa has a big weapon that the other two lack).
IMO, Stan’s only chance is to go big early and often. Of course he’ll miss some and Rafa will make him hit plenty of extra balls. But the moment he gives up on trying to win by firing winners, he’s lost. He cannot out-rally Nadal and has no other way to beat him on clay. Everyone knows that Rafa is vulnerable to bit hitters. True, Soderling is the only one to exploit the vulnerability at RG, but Stan’s best is better than Soderling’s. It can be done if Stan can bring his best.
I’m not sure Stan’s best is better than Sod’s! Sod had the misfortune of facing Fedal when they’re still in their peak or prime; whilst Stan in his late 20s had a Fed who’s no longer at his prime and a Rafa who suffered more and more from injuries.
Sod made two FO finals B2B only to lose to Fedal; reached at least the QF at Wimbledon and USO to be blocked by either Fed or Rafa.
Sod was also more consistent than Stan from tournament to tournament, he’s ranked no.4 or 5 when the big four were in their prime or peak form, he’s better on the HCs and grass whilst Stan is on clay.
Stan has won two hard court slams beating world number ones in both finals. I would say he is better on hard courts than Soderling. Grass is another story lol.
Benny, it happened that the no. 1 was either injured or playing horrible tennis in those two HC slams that Stan won! In no way did the two no.1s played like Fed in FO2009 and Rafa in FO2010 finals! LOL!!
I’m sorry to say, nope, on clay Rafa isn’t/wasn’t vulnerable to big hitters. Rafa had no problem with the same Sod in the FO2010 final, beating Sod in straight sets. The 2009 Rafa suffered from knee injuries, so that’s not a good gauge of his normal level. You seem to mixed up Rafa on grass and Rafa on clay!
I meant that Rafa is susceptible to big hitters in general, on all surfaces. But rarely has a big hitter gotten the better of him on clay, and only once at RG.
I don’t think Nadal has ever faced a player on clay who played like Stan in RG 2015. No, I don’t think Soderling played that well. I’m not at all sure that Stan can replicate that form today, but if he can I think he will win.
And Joe, for someone who watched so little of Rafa’s matches, understands so little of his game, you seem to talk a lot about him and as if any player could beat him! The most ridiculous assumption you made was about Fed in his prime using a bigger racket would beat Rafa on clay even at RG.
You keep talking that when Stan is at his aggressive best he could beat Rafa on clay at RG, even when Rafa is playing well. They have met numerous times on clay, and the results except for one in 2015, were always in Rafa’s favor. I don’t see anything supporting your claim or your assumption, which to me is more of your own conjecture or wishful thinking. The only time and only way that Stan beats Rafa on clay is/was when Rafa was playing subpar tennis, like in 2015.
When did I say I haven’t watched Rafa’s matches? I watch most of the big four matches, though I’m sure I haven’t watched as much tennis as many on this site. I also play tennis at a pretty high club level, and I think I understand the game fairly well. Clearly, we have different views about a number of things regarding tennis, but that’s to be expected.
Rafa in 4.
Rafa in three and his reaction will be something special
If Rafa wins I will be fine for that exact reason lol. Plus history being made isn’t such a bad thing for the sport lol. Reaction from either guy will be awesome.
Even though I highly doubt it, there’s a very slim chance that Wawrinka won’t be lifting the trophy, but what I do know is, that if Nadal somehow should grind this match away with an absolutely amazing performance, then it is never ever going to be in 3 sets. Laugh at me, call me crazy, but I would call you so, if you think Wawrinka is not atleast taking 1 set, if not 3.
Bet big on a #WLB win MainATP.
#GoBigOrGoHome
Toni has said Rafa did not play play that well and was tense and nervous in the semi . As per Toni,Rafa played just well enough .
Don’t be tense Rafa ,history is awaiting you .
I agree that Rafa did not play particularly well in the SF. I thought he looked quite worried early on after the break. But Thiem could not consolidate and then faded pretty quickly.
Nevertheless, Nadal’s SF level will beat Stan’s SF level, no doubt in my mind. Stan must raise his game significantly to win; the same cannot be said of Rafa, who can win even if he’s not at his best.
Stanimal in 5
This final being set up is only thing that went right in my atrocious bracket. If Stan wins then I guess I still would consider my bracket a success.
stan in 4
Nadal in 4
Rafa 3 1, but no surprise to win 3 0.
All men are below Nadal’s level in men tennis played on clay court for a decade.
Confirmation 10 RG.
Stan did not bring God mode -or anything close- to the Murray SF, and that makes me less confident that he will bring that level to the final. I still think there’s a slightly greater than 50% that he will, so here is my estimate of the most likely scenarios:
1. (45%) Stan plays like he did in the SF: he gives up on trying to hit winners, plays it safe with more topspin, and slices returns that land soft and short. Rafa wins easily, probably in 3, possibly in 4 if Stan manages to attain God mode for a short time.
2. (30%) Rafa comes out on fire, gets an early break, and even though Stan steadies the ship, Nadal takes the first set. However, much like in 2015 RG final, Stan doesn’t get flustered, and gradually overwhelms his opponent in a flurry of winners (60 in 2015). Stan wins in 4.
3. (25%) Stan comes out in God mode, takes a convincing 1st set and doesn’t let up in second. Rafa manages to take the 3rd from sheer force of will, but again Stan wins in 4.
The main factor is whether Stan can bring his absolute best.
There are so many people here saying that Stan will raise the level as he normally does in a RG final and that he has defeated the reigning world no 1 each time. How many times has Rafa played the RG final and defeated the world no 1? And why would Rafa not raise his own game. Of the three victories that Stan has over Rafa, two came in 2015(He was losing to Fognini on clay that year) and one came over a hobbled Rafa.
Rafa builds his season around this tournament. If Stan is on fire, I am sure Rafa has a few tricks up his sleeve too.
Maybe it’s because Nadal’s track record at RG is pretty much uniformly great, and there’s not much evidence that he significantly raises his level for RG finals. For instance, many have called his early round victory over Balashavilli last week his greatest clay victory ever.
Stan’s track record, on the other hand, is to reserve his very best tennis for GS finals. He’s nowhere near the same player most of the rest of the time, which is why he only has one Masters 1000 title. For whatever reason, GS finals, which to this point have come only against Nadal and Djokovic, seem to bring out his very best. And possibly his greatest performance ever was in the 2015 RG final. That’s why so many are expecting him to bring his very best tennis tomorrow.
“, many have called his early round victory over Balashavilli last week his greatest clay victory ever.”
Strawman argument.
Rafa raised his level against Nole in 2013 and against Fed going down two breaks in the first set at RG (forget the year) just off the top of my head.
OK, I’m not saying that Nadal can’t or hasn’t ever raised his level in slam finals. But the difference in Stan’s case is practically orders of magnitude.
Even Wawrinka concedes, beating an in-form Rafa at RG is the biggest challenge in the game. It’s a bigger challenge than beating an in-form Roger at Wimbledon or an in-form Novak at the Australian Open.
Its a bigger challenge because it doesn’t matter how well you play, you can still lose simply because the Nadal formula on this court is close to unbeatable.
I give Stan a 5% chance of winning and 30% chance of winning a set
I would give better pcts than that LOL.
26% of the votes think Stan will win. That’s a big number.
You can’t take Polls as a reliable indicator. Look what’s happened in politics recently 🙁
ed,
Good one!
?
Ed, I hope this poll is correct!
LOL, ed.
Just means at least 26% that voted are fedfans.
#NothingNew
HEY HAWKS THAT OFFENDS ME #rogerthegoat #rogerwouldhavewonthisforsureifheplayed #fedfawnation #trollfordays
Have just watched Uncle Toni being interviewed on French TV – conducted in fluent French* I might add. There was no ‘talking the big talk’ but but he looked and sounded relaxed and quietly confident. He has often come under fire but let us not forget he is the man who guided and moulded the young Rafa to become the great champion he is today. This is the last time we will see him at RG as Rafa’s coach. La decima will be an emotional moment for him – not to mention Rafa’s legion of fans.
* I guess Uncle T is also responsible for Rafa now addressing the crowds in competent French
ed!…Read your post makes me even more believe that Rafa will do anything in his power to win FO…as a departing present to his uncle…
No way Stan would dismantle Rafa, unless it is God will.
Wisely hedged, Fg.
Wow, Rafa says he hopes he is not nervous. Well, hope that his nervy moment is passed with a shaky start against Theim.
Surely, if he could break down Theim, he can do the same to Wawrinka.
Stan doesn’t have a great record against Rafa. He’s beaten Rafa 3 times out of 18, but at the AO 2014, Rafa was clearly injured and he was injured in practice before the match started. Even if you give Stan the first 2 sets in that match with no asterisks there is nothing to say a fully fit Nadal wouldn’t have won that match from 2 sets down. As for Stan’s 2 wins in 2015, that was Rafa’s most horrible year in his entire career when he wasn’t injured. He was losing to everyone and still Stan couldn’t beat him easily.
2015 Rome Masters QF Clay Stan Wawrinka def Rafael Nadal 7-6(7) 6-2
2015 Paris Masters QF Hard Stan Wawrinka def Rafael Nadal 7-6(8) 7-6(7)
All Rafa’s 15 wins against Stan have been in straight sets, the most recent being in MC 2016 when Rafa won 61 64.