Rafael Nadal and Stan Wawrinka will be squaring off for the 19th time in their careers when they collide in the French Open final on Sunday afternoon.
Nadal is dominating the head-to-head series 15-3, including 6-1 on clay and 1-0 at Roland Garros. Wawrinka, however, has won three of their last six meetings and he got the best of their only previous Grand Slam title match via a 6-3, 6-2, 3-6, 6-3 decision at the 2014 Australian Open. The two veterans have not faced each other since last spring, when Nadal cruised through a Monte-Carlo quarterfinal encounter 6-1, 6-4.
The fourth-ranked Spaniard triumphed at Monte-Carlo two months ago for his 10th title there, accomplished the same feat in Barcelona, and he is now bidding for No. 10 on the red clay of Paris. He also triumphed in Madrid. All of that has a resulted in a 23-1 clay-court record in 2017, with his lone blemish coming against Dominic Thiem in the Rome quarterfinals. Nadal avenged that defeat without any trouble on Friday, clobbering the 23-year-old Austrian 6-3, 6-4, 6-0. He preceded that victory by taking out Benoit Paire, Robin Haase, Nikoloz Basilashvili, Roberto Bautista Agut, and Pablo Carreno Busta all without dropping a single set.
Three of the four semifinalists were perfect in total sets this fortnight prior to Friday: Nadal, Thiem, and Wawrinka. The third-ranked Swiss rolled over Jozef Kovalik, Alexandr Dolgopolov, Fabio Fognini, Gael Monfils, and Marin Cilic before running into serious trouble against Andy Murray. Wawrinka came within four points of a four-set defeat but eventually survived the longest match of the tournament to date 6-7(6), 6-3, 5-7, 7-6(3), 6-1 in four hours and 34 minutes. Less than three weeks ago he was just 16-8 overall in 2017, but he is now in the midst of a 10-match winning streak that also includes a clay-court title in Geneva.
“Stan won the last event in Geneva and now he’s in the final here,” Nadal commented. “So he’s [on] a good run. He’s in the final. So it’s the toughest opponent possible here.”
“I think to play Rafa on clay in French Open in a final is probably the biggest challenge you can have in tennis,” Wawrinka countered. “He’s the best player ever on clay. It’s for sure gonna be really difficult. But [at] the end of the day, it’s the final; the pressure is on both players. No one goes on the court thinking he has no pressure. We both want to win the title.”
The 32-year-old has apparently never felt such pressure, as he as a perfect 3-0 lifetime in major finals (2014 Australian Open, 2015 French Open, 2016 U.S. Open). But Nadal also has plenty of numbers going for him: he is 78-2 lifetime at the French Open with nine titles.
“Nine actually is my favorite number,” Nadal admitted after the semis. “But don’t get me wrong–I would prefer 10 over nine, no doubt.”
His preference will likely become reality on Sunday. The former world No. 1 bas been dominant at Roland Garros for more than a decade, has dominated this entire clay-court swing aside from one energy-deprived loss, and is extremely well-rested have lost a mere 29 games this whole tournament.
Pick: Nadal in 3
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How can some people say the result of this match depends on Stan’s level? Rafa’s top level on clay is unquestionably better than Stan’s. I’m not saying Stan can’t win, but the idea that it’s his level that’ll determine the result is absurd. If both players are in God mode, Rafa wins.
Here’s one reason, Arthur. Look at the last match with Murray. Murray’s winner to UE ratio was even: 36/36. Stan’s on the other hand was 87/77.
Now, ignore that Stan’s ratio was +10 versus even for Murray, which goes a long way toward explaining why he won the match. Focus on the fact that he hit more than twice as many winners/UE. That means he was responsible for ending the point more than twice as many times as his opponent: the match was effectively on his racquet.
I’m not predicting that there will be a similar ratio against Nadal, but it would be extremely surprising if Stan’s combined winner/UE number wasn’t significantly larger than Rafa’s. If he can get his ratio high enough -to win it’s going to be well into poaitive territory- he will win. Again, Stan’s play will largely decide the outcome, so again the match is on his racquet.
Joe expounding on what can be called the Joe conjecture:
Anyone who has beaten Nadal even once is better than Nadal and the match is on his racket.
Arthur. Easy.
They’re all fedfawns.
No modicum of objectivity.
I can’t believe this fognini style head case of a player ostaplenko won womens grand slam against Simona. She got me believing now any one can win. Wawrinka might pull a win out of his ass tomorrow.
Joe Smith especially is making the most absurd posts. He claims Stan has a 75% chance of winning. Now it is quite possible Stan may win, but before they play our predictions have to be based on past performance. If you are talking numbers like 75%, you have to base them on a model, not fantasy. But even that absurd assessment is not as amazingly delusional as the ones hyping Thiem. At least Stan is a 3 time GS winner. But Joe thinks Thiem is better than Nadal! The tin hat of the year award goes to Joe.
ok, MainATP is also pretty good so Joe and MainATP are declared joint winners of the tin hat.
Mary wins the award for failing reading comprehension.
Find me one place where I said Stan has a 75% chance of winning the final, or that Thiem is better than Nadal.
When you think you’ve found it, read it again carefully.
I’m rooting for Stan but no freaking way he has 75%. Stan realistically has like 25%. Nadal is on a mission right now. The only way Stan wins is if he raises his level to the maximum of his life and Nadal dips here and there.
A 5 setter is usually more predictable than a 3 setter. If Rafa is not injured, based on h2h 15:3, Rafa ‘s chances are about 83%. Based on wins in RG finals, 9: 1, Rafa’s chances are 90%. Based on number of gs’s won, 14: 3, Rafa’s chances are about 82%.
Basing it on number of finals won out of finals reached is not a rational model because according to this a person who reaches only 1 final in his career and wins it is better than another who reaches 10 finals and wins 9! I think this fallacy can be named the Joe-MainATP fallacy in honor of the duo who specialize in such arguments.
Anyone watch the ladies final? We found a female version of Thiem in the ladies champion Ostapenko. Both are hard hitters, so I think it’s safe to say, the future of tennis is all about hard hitting power tennis from the baseline.
Bosstapenko has a harder average forehand than moonball Murray. I thank the lord for not giving us a Murray Nadal final. I think we can all at least agree that Stan v Rafa has more potential to be a great match than Murray v Nadal would have.
Nadal didnt break down Thiem. Thiem was already broken when he entered the court. Not trying to take anything away from Nadal, but that’s just a fact, as well as his way to the final has been very lucky.
First round for Nadal is Paire, the most consistent french fighter..
Second round vs Haase, well the dutch answer of a consistent fighter..
Third round (should be getting tough now) versus Gabashvillis Georgian cousin Basibub. Nadal must have been afraid of that encounter.
4th round – Well, atleast now it should get serious – or?
Totally out of form defensiv spanish bonobo Bautista with less confidence than a shy teenager on his first date. Toni and Nadal must have been fearing this one.
To the quarterfinals —-> Versus.. Not really anyone, Pablo was injured, so a free win for Nadal..
And if that wasnt free enough, well – Thiem spend all of his power to smack Djokovic, to give Nadal another very free win..
Wawrinka on the other hand, have taken on the Italian stallion aka Fognini, who can beat anybody and believes the same, he got swooped.
Monfils who were hungry and showing good signs, with a home crowd cheering him – swooped aswell.
Cilic – Playing his best clay tennis of his life – got swooped.
Murray who finally played himself of to that form who made him nr 1 in the world. Yea, you guess right, he got swooped aswell (in the 5th)
All of those 4 could have beat anybody that Nadal faced on his way to the final. And if you’re saying no, they wouldnt have beat Thiem, then yes and no. They would maybe not have beat the Thiem who rekt Djokovic, but they would have swooped the Thiem we saw vs Nadal in the semis.
You clearly are trying to discredit Rafa.
Your analysis is lacking. Who did Thiem play? Tgecinjtbtough opponent he had was Novak, who was a shell of the great champion we have seen in the past few years. Thiem looked good because Novak wasn’t able to play the way he is capable of playing. He didn’t even show up for the third set.
How about Thiem playing Zeballos instead of Goffin? Tough one, huh? Thiem also had an easy draw. You play the ones who get through and are in your draw. That’s the sport.
Whining about it doesn’t change it. Raonic and Dimi couldn’t get through to play Rafa. If they did, I don’t think it would have made a difference the way Rafa was playing. RBA actually played well. Rafa was just too good.
Yeah I had Goffin in the semis actyally. I think if he didn’t have that stupid fall it would’ve happened.
Yes, I picked Goffin to the SF.
Rafa’s draw was a lot kinder than Stan’s. But he got through it with flying colors. And that’s an understatement.
Good analysis dude, I like it. Nadal hasn’t faced anybody that would make him feel the pressure that makes gum vulnerable
Wawrinka’s a chance. Should’ve beat Murray 3:1 and I believe Murray played him into top gear. Wawrinka couldn’t have asked for a better hitout than what Murray gave him. He was also tested mentally and will mostly take his opportunities in the final.
” Not trying to take anything away from Nadal”
Hahahahahahahahahahaha!!!
(that’s when I stopped reading LOL).
Let’s all just agree that Rafa is the favorite, Stan at least has a chance, and let’s just hope for a great final and enjoy these two champs gunning for glory!
Champ vs chump.
Unless you mortgage your house and put all your money on either Nadal or wawrinka, your not 100% confidant.
True. People often act like they know the answer, like they’re completely sure, but it’s almost always empty bluster or overconfidence. The deafening silence when they get it wrong is pretty funny, but it doesn’t tend to deter them.
Looking forward to yours.
0.1% chance for Stan, if Rafa God mode is on display, fit and healthy, or
50% if Stan suddenly hits less than 20 UE in the whole match.
Yesterday he hit over 50, didn’t he?
.1? Ok…
Cilic is not playing the best tennis of his life – he started the season very badly. And Monfils has been injured most of the year. To say they are a tougher proposition than Thiem is just wrong.
Rafa hasn’t had the toughest draw, but he’s still played extremely well this clay season, and better than Stan has. Stan can obviously raise his level, but it’s on Rafa’s racket.
He is playing best clay tennis that’s what MainATP said. Obviously not best tennis. You gotta rewind to 2014 NYC for that.
You will learn by time. And time will prove me right, as usually 🙂
And Sam, don’t worry, I will make more money than you can imagine WHEN Wawrinka wins tomorrow.
And for the last time, I think Nadal is a great player, but nobody can beat Wawrinka when he is playing his best, and I know my man, he will peak tomorrow.
Actually Rafa at the french at his best is probably someone who actually could beat Stan at his best. I don’t think Rafa will play his best though. He’s got all the pressure to win a coveted 10th RG and he was even nervous against Thiem early on but Thiem just sucked.
I don’t think Theim can win a grand slam especially when all other next gen have grown up. He doesn’t have that kind of mentality to fight back and win …like Ostapenko.
I agree that Stan is nearly impossible to beat when he is playing like he did vs Murray in that fifth set or vs Novak in the 2015 final. That’s why I’m such a fan of Stan. He pulls out god mode in the biggest matches and it’s one of the greatest things to witness in tennis in my opinion. The winners he pulls out of his artillery are just stupid good. That famous around the net backhand against Novak in RG 2015 and some of the inside out backhands he is able to produce. People say Thiem has heavier ground strokes and maybe that is true I am not sure. But I know for a fact Thiem doesn’t have the shotmaking abilities of Wawrinka. Pretty much no one does. Except for maybe prime Rafa and Roger. And of course Brown and Monfils lol!! Oh yeah and that shot Stan hit on match point. That was pure beauty.
Match point in the semis against Murray I mean.
But, you have to factor in Murray’s empty tank in that fifth set; thus allowing Stan to hit those shots without much resistance from Murray. Why do you think Stan could only hit that way in the fifth set when he couldn’t earlier on??
Because he is clutch. Stan was blasting return winners on a regular basis and clocking his first shot in the point for clean winners. I think his performance in the fifth has more to do with his badass ability to start clocking bullets past his opponents over and over. Precisely why I love watching Stan but I think I’m beating the dead horse by saying that.
Nah, more like sensing the opportunities when he realized that Murray was running out of steam. Why won’t his badass nature appear earlier and hammering his opponents sooner than later? It had something to do with how his opponents played for sure!
He had all the momentum from winning the fourth set breaker. Murray has not played much this clay season due to early losses at the clay masters. No reason for him to be out of gas. Stan just broke his spirit with the shotmaking and heaviness he was coming up with.
Benny, Murray was out of gas due to all the running and defending he had to do, and under the heat and humidity. It’s not about how much he had played this season, rather the hours on court in this match where he’s the one doing so much running and under such conditions. I’m sure after a day of rest, Murray will be physically fine but not during the match. Stan looked the fitter of the two at the end of the match!
And you think Murray won’t fight till the end if he had enough energy to do so? You think he would just give up hope when they’re equal at 2-2 sets? This is a slam SF, you think Murray would give up so easily?
What I was saying is I feel like Stan broke Murray’s spirits with how many incredible shots he was hitting. Murray isn’t the mentally strongest. Definitely the weakest world number one mentally. But you have a good point about how he was mostly on defense throughout the match so he may have been a bit tired at the end. I still give a lot of credit to Stan for the incredible display of shotmaking he produced in that final set.
And I have to say Stan was prevented from hitting those bullet shots earlier on by Murray, who used his guile and court craft to defuse Stan’s power.
The fact that Stan usually loses to the big four guys despite his power hitting tennis tells us that the big four have ways to deal with Stan’s power, though Murray is the weakest of the big four hence his H2H vs Stan is close.
luckystar you’re kind of clueless about wawrinka. murray wasn t tired in the last set, the reason that set was one sided was because that was simply peak wawrinka making his first apearance since RG 2015 final…stan had the momentum and confidence from the 4 th set and that made the STANIMAL apear,nothing to do with murray being tired,and come on if you did watch that match wawrinkas stupid choices on atleast 10 easy points made the match closer than it should have been.And wawrinkas loses against the big 4 mostly have apeared in masters where it s clear as day stan doesn t realy care about,he said it himself that he wants to play his best in the grand slams.STan doesn t just lose to big 4 players in masters ,he can lose to anybody there With wawrinka loses are not that big of an indicator of what he s gonna do in a big match like this,his day form is all that matters.And if he does continue from the last set against murray ,nadal will be beaten no doubt about it.But that is a big IF so untill then rafa is still a huge favorite.
Ahem, cristiano, nope, Stan lost many times at slams to the big four too. Why don’t you check their respective records at the slams? Did he not bother then??
And Murray was out of steam by the fifth set as explained earlier on, just go and rewatch that fifth set again!
It’s strange that you and some others, are thinking that Stan was so stupid, that he didn’t go into his so called ‘god mode’ earlier on during the match, but had to wait till the fifth set, to start playing that way! Had it occurred to you people, that why Stan could only play that way in the fifth set but not earlier?? I thought the answer was obvious but yet we have people like you for example, thinking that others were clueless but in fact the term clueless is most apt in describing people like you!
Clueless or delusional fedfawns.
Or both.
Take your pick.
I can only agree with you. Beating Nadal in the RG final is perhaps one of the biggest challenges. But as you said yourself, all the preassure is on Nadal, and it was shown against Thiem, but it were never a match, and that was way more due to poor play from Thiem, than great play from Nadal. Wawrinka has the shots, as Thiem kind of exposed Nadal yesterday with, but just couldnt stay in rallies because of the lack of energy. Stan should be filled with energy, and he is a tank. Nadal have really been lacking lenght in his game all year, which is also why he lost matches as the final versus Querrey. Because if the opponent doesnt make errors, he will simply take the control of the game. And when hardhitting players like Querrey, and Wawrinka are at their best, they are able to break his defense down. Nadal is just not at the same clay level as he once were. I don’t doubt Nadal will win French Open again, and perhaps even next year, when Wawrinka most likely wont peak here again. But tomorrow, with all the preassure on Nadal, and Wawrinka with all that confidence and no preassure match at perhaps the place he got his best memories from, I believe he will create that moment again, and break down Nadal, by simply playing his game, amazing tennis, huge forehands, huge backhands, huge serves, fighting spirit and very few unforced errors. As you also mentioned – the backhand winner on match point vs Murray, was perhaps just the sign and confidence he needed to go into the final.
“Very few unforced errors”…Wawa had 77 UEs in the semi, what makes you think he would suddenly hit less UEs vs Rafa? Murray is mainly defensive on clay and he managed to take this Wawa to five sets! Rafa’s top spin, his FHs vs Wawa’s BHs will force Wawa to make even more errors except that unlike Murray Rafa will go for winners like he did with his other opponents rather than wait for Wawa to make UEs…
Christian,
You might want to review the site rules for this forum. Your use of profanity and inappropriate language violates site rules.
If you want to disagree with someone, then you need to do so using acceptable language.
edited, thanks
I guess dear cristiano was being a good christian in his choice of words.
You forget Delpo! Rafa, Fed and Delpo could produce jaw dropping shots and seemingly at will, better than Stan I feel. Stan couldn’t do it all the time, unlike them.
Monfils, Brown and Kygrios are more about their trick shots.
Ricky,
Thank you!
Agreed the level that Stan can produce is frightening. He goes to a supernatural level.
Let us see what happens when God mode Stan a.k.a the Man with the supernatural powers plays the humble man from Mallorca who is past his prime, who doesn’t get good length and who made it to the final because the players in his half played like crap.
Yet his god mode has only given him three slams when Murray, Rafa and Nole are not near their best.
He beat Feds best though. At least there’s that to hang your hat on.
Stan’s best is unlikely to do well against Roger’s, he has a terrible record against Fed. He’s 0 wins 15 losses on HC, Fed even narrowly leads the Clay H2H count 4-3. Out of the Big four. Roger is actually the worst possible match-up for Stan (albeit his records against Djoko and Nadal are also poor, though he does better against them at the slams).
Not near their best is a bit of a cop-out, only Rafa was injured. Stan was in great form in those tournaments, and he knocked out other Big Four players who were playing well. In that AO he also knocked out Djoko (at his favourite tournament, no less) after being a break down in the fifth.
I expect that Nadal will beat him tonight, but on the whole he definitely plays clutch tennis well, and makes it hard even for top opponents.
Not on clay when WLB was in “God mode” it isn’t a bad matchup.
In “God mode”, he schooled Federer at his best at RG.
When he’s in “God mode”, he can beat Federer in “God mode”.
Just not the other Big Four when they’re in “God mode”.
To state otherwise as fact is a bit of a cop out.
Uh, what you just said proves my point – if he’s not playing against Fed on Clay and playing his very best, the odds of him winning in that H2H are quite low, not to mention HC (or worse still, Fed’s favourite surface).
Federer at his best…in 2015, at RG? No doubt Wawa was clearly too strong, but you gave me a good laugh with that one.
No. Your point all along is thinking WLB controls the outcome of this match on Chatrier against The King of Clay having lost just two matches at the French Open.
Fedfawn delusion is what is laughable here.
Hilarious!
I never made that point, I don’t believe it’s true, and I’ve tipped Nadal to win.
Try again.
TWD, Stan and Fed had not played in a slam final. According to many Stan fans here, Stan is/was in ‘god’ mode when in a slam final. Fed had a hard time beating Stan in the AO SF this year when Stan injured himself. If Stan wasn’t injured, who knows, he might play in ‘god’ mode in the fifth set to beat Fed, just like in the fifth set vs Murray here in the SF.
Fed wasn’t a bad match up for Stan, it’s just that Stan was in awe of him all along. Stan wasn’t even playing that well at the AO this year, I would say on grass and quick HCs Fed has the edge, but not on clay and slow HCs.
Deepest and sincerest apologies fake Bowie fan.
You will have to excuse me. Hard to tell one fedfawn apart from another.
#DimeADozen
Luckystar – the whole ‘God Mode’ thing is rather overblown (it’s a v small sample, for instance), but I do think Stan is generally pretty good at playing the Big 4 in slams. But then, one would naturally expect that for an individual who has three GS titles, it shouldn’t be much of a surprise.
True Stan was injured in that AO final, but so was Fed (he was 35 too, although I must admit, still a very good version of Fed). I would include the mental aspect of the H2H as being part of the bad match-up – I think Wawa has a tendency to think that Fed has all the answers against him, which makes it harder for him to believe he can beat him. In recent years that has not been the case as much, but I think it’s still a factor.
Hawkeye – boring ad hominems, the last refuge.
No, delusion and disrespect is.
You deserve no better fedfawn.
Delusions and disrespect?
Haha. Tell me more about how Nole is back, and that people who disagree don’t get it.
Murray was gassed because of his poor play and resultant lack of mstches and tough situations. That’s what he said and makes perfect sense.
Whiny Little Bitch only plays so called God Mode when others let him.
Hope y’all bet everything on #WLB.
Perhaps the most relevant stat regarding Stan for today’s match is this. Since 2013 USO (when he beat Murray and then lost in 5 to Djokovic in the SF), Stan is 7-6 in slams against the big four.
In other words, for nearly the last four years he has a winning record against the best players in the very biggest tournaments. Needless to say, no other player even comes close.
Subtract his 1-3 record against Federer, and he’s 6-3 against Novak, Rafa, and Murray in slams during that period.
What about Nole? Even accepting your biased sample of counting only the 14 slams after USO 2013, I am sure Nole has a better record against the other three, at least 7-0. In any case Nole has not lost a single slam match after USO 2013 to the other 3.This stat itself is skewed as Nole is part of big 4 and we are excluding him whereas in case of Stan’s stats we are including Nole. In your effort to big up Stan you are quoting bogus stats especially when you consider that Nole won 6 slams in that period against Stan’s 3. Both Andy and Rafa were in less than stellar form due to injuries and surgeries during 2014-15 and Fed in 2016.
that 7-0 and not lost a single match to the other 3 applies to 2015 and 2016.
And also 2017!
In 2014, it was 2-1 against the other 3. So total Nole is 9-1 against other 3 after USO 2013 till date in slams. I am saying these figures from memory so even if they are not accurate, Nole’s record is undoubtedly better than Stan’s in the period chosen by you which represents Stan’s best period.
Mary, I never claimed that Stan is better overall than Novak over the last four years, which would be absurd. (Though even Novak has a losing record (2-3) against Stan at slams during that time). The point is simply that Stan plays crazy good against the best players in the slams over the last few years.
It’s not a “biased” sample at all. Of course his record against those four was much worse prior to 2013, but as everyone recognizes, somehow he became a different player around that time. No doubt you have a doping theory about it.
I think Swiss players specialize in doping which explains late career resurgence.
Ah, I see why you got confused, Mary: I meant that no other player *outside the big four* has a better record at slams *against the big four* at slams in the relevant period.
How is that “outside the big 4 ” relevant when we are talking about his match tomorrow against Nadal?
The big four are Fed, Rafa, Nole, Murray. Beating them at slams is a huge challenge, to put it mildly. Stan has a winning record against those four since USO 2013. No other player outside the big four is anywhere near that good against those four at slams in the relevant period.
So that is evident from the fact that it was his best period and he is second only to Nole in number of slams won during that period. Being good against Rafa or Muzz during the period you have chosen means nothing as it was Rafa’s worst period and part of it was Muzz’s worst. It also explains, apart from the doping solution, why that period was Stan’s best. The big 4 were big 2 for most of that time, nole plus 1 other ( part of 2014: Rafa, part of 2015: Fed and part of 2016 : Andy).
Why since USO2013? You should start from AO2013 where Stan had a tough five sets match vs Djoko and Djoko had to dig deep to win in five sets. Stan however lost meekly to Rafa at FO2013, pushed Djoko to the limit again at USO2013 before finally getting a win over Djoko at AO2014.
So, Stan is 1:1 vs Rafa; 1-3 vs Fed; 3-3 vs Djoko and until this FO, 2-1 vs Murray, from AO2013 to FO2017. Stan only has winning record over Murray and that’s only at this FO. We are also ignoring 2012 and before here.
And, Stan matches up well against Djoko but only at the slams, i.e. over BO5. He matches up well vs Murray, now 10-8 overall, mainly because Murray has the least weapons among the big four, and has to use his guile, his court craft and his incredible defensive skills to beat Stan.
Lucky, I was going to start at AO 2014, since that is the natural break-through event/year for Stan. I started it the slam before, where he was 1-1 against big four members; makes his record against Murray better but novak worse. Counting from AO 2014, his record against big four at slams is:
Rafa 1-0
Novak 3-1
Murray 1-1
Roger 1-3
Total: 6-5
Joe, you do notice that Stan’s wins were mainly against Djoko and Murray? It’s 7-5 now and will be 7-6 after this FO!
Oh, it’ll be 6-6 after this FO, not 7-6, I’ve wrongly given Stan one more win. Rafa and Stan only met once during this period and it’ll be 1-1 after the final here; please don’t lump Rafa with Djoko and Murray if you’re going to exclude Fed. Stan also had a win over Fed during this period, so don’t try to exclude that!
Well, since 2014 he has 1 each against Rafa, Roger, Andy. And yes, his best record is against Novak; worst is against Roger.
Again, the point is simply that he has played extremely well, against all the big four at slams (possibly excepting Federer) over 3 1/2 years. I think a big part of it is that he is not afraid of them and genuinely believes he can win if he plays his best tennis.
And, he had not met Fed in a slam final, unlike against Rafa and Djoko, so he might not be in ‘god’ mode vs Fed all those times. I’m not sure Fed would have all those wins if he met Stan in AO final or USO final. Stan was injured during their AO2017 SF.
Joe ignores injuries and severe slumps.
Let’s break it down.
An in-form Murray starting his run to No, 1 wins in straights in 2015 FO .
An off-form Murray exhibiting first signs of regaining form loses in five sets at 2016 FO.
An injured Rafa loses in four at 2014 AO.
An in form Djokovic loses 9-7 in the 5th set at the 2014 AO in a very even match until Djokovic has a brain cramp.
An in form Djokovic wins 6-0 in the in the 5th set at the 2015 AO in a pretty even match until Djokovic delivers a bagel.
An in form Djokovic loses at the 2015 FO in what most universally agree was a poorly played and out of character passive performance.
A severely slumping burnt out Djokovic loses in four at the 2016 USO,
So all this indicates is that Wawrinka matches up well with Djokovic, especially when he’s not on his game.
As Mary says, has little if anything to do with tomorrow’s match.
That’s all very convenient, Hawk.
The record is what it is, in 13 slam matches against the game’s four best players over nearly four years .
What it has to do with today’s match is that it suggests that Stan will play very well and the match will be competitive.
What’s convenient is not looking at the specifics of who he beat and what state their game was in.
Regardless,having nothing to do with his recent record in slams, I suspect WLB will play well and the match will be competitive which means it could go 3, 4 or 5 sets.
Don’t see Rafa allowing him to play god mode like his bad back did in 2014.
I hope Rafa beats Stan in 3 sets with a bagel.One of my friends pronounces Stan as Su-tan. Sounds like Satan!
#Rafa in God mode
…like Suh-tan
I got $100 on wawrinka to win 450 should I put more? I’m thinking to put 300 on wawrinka to get at least one set for -170
Only you know the answer to that question Sam. Bet whatever you feel like, and never more than you wouldnt be sad losing.
All I know is I am taking big shot, and going for a huge stake on this one. Either it will be a fantastic day, or it will an akward call to my boss asking for my job back 😉
* and never more than you would be sad losing/can’t afford losing * obviously ^^
Oh MainATP, you are curently unemployed? No wonder you sit all day at your laptop typing some garbage. What makes you think your boss will give you your old job back?
Haha, aww, trying to get personal, because I know more about tennis than you. I forgot you have to point out sarcasm for less intelligent people 😉
And if you really want to know what I am doing, then I can tell you that my job is spotsbetting, and it has been that for the last 8 years of my life.
If you would use more energy in watching matches and analyzing players, instead of taking your frustrastions out on the internet, perhaps you would also be able to predict winners like Wawrinka at odds 5 in the future 😉
Come back after the match tomorrow fedfawn.
You might be flipping burgers again sooner than you think.
Again, why are you talking about Federer?
If this was Federer vs Nadal in the final, I would most likely agree with you, that Nadal would win his 10th trophy at RG later, but that’s not the case. It’s Stan my man, and he will give Nadal a little reminder about how lucky he is, that he don’t release the stanimal more often.
According to the burgerflipping, you might be right, I wouldnt be surprised if I’d celebrate the victory tomorrow with a huge homemade burger ala Stanislas 😉
I didn’t mention Federer
A Freudian slip.
And the “most likely” is a ridiculously obvious tell.
Only fedfawns believe Federer has a realistic chance close to even vs Rafa at RG.
And this bias colours your judgement which is why you fail.
You could also look at becoming a Walmart greeter. Just trying to help.
I am making money doing what I love and sharing my knowlegde meanwhile. You on the other hand, are not making any money here, and are perhaps the one who should get a job, because you waste time here typing bullshit about others, when you don’t agree (Which is mainly you talking shit about anybody who is not stupid enough to believe Nadal is a guarenteed winner of the final versus Wawrinka)
Mate, I am not here to talk shit about anybody, I was here to share what I know, that Stan is playing absolutely amazing, and Nadal didnt have a real test yet, that doesnt mean he aint good or he wont win, that’s simply a fact for anybody who have been watching the tournament from the start till end.
This is my job, I get paid for this.
You seem quite upset.
Hope we both lose our bets today.
You could make more not betting against Nadal at RG.
But perhaps that’s the price to pay for enjoying textbook fedfawn delusion.
Here to help.
Did anyone make money of Wawrinka (WoW)!?
I was big on Wawrinka (winning the French Open), considering his good clay form at Geneva (and winning it also) and also his good form at FO-RG. But after seeing how Nadal crushed my teen crush, Thiem ( showing that Nadal is in greater form than any other tennis player in this world) and after seeing how Waw struggled to beat a non-clay court player(Andy), I decided to bet big on Nadal and won big $$$$$. Wawrinka was schooled or WoWed by Nadal!LOL
When we analyze the stats (like Waw never lost a Grand Slam etc. ) in too much depth ( I lost many a bet going only by stats that too in depth! Changed my stat based analysis recently and doing better now!) we lose track of the winners. Sometimes, just by understanding the current situation LOGICALLY/human factors (as described above) will give you the winners easily!
After Nadal winning his 10th Title at Monte Carlo, Barcelona, Madrid and Roland Garros, do you think Nadal is human at all? Is he an alien determined to crush all we human weaklings?!
Can Nadal replicate his human destruction at Wimbledon, US Open etc. on other Grass and hard court tournaments in 2017?
Personally, my confidence in Rafa for tomorrow is about more than just how great he has been in RG finals. I also believe that after what happened to Rafa at AO, it’s just hard for me to imagine him not doing whatever it takes to not let that happen again… If this match happens to go the distance, right down to the wire, I feel like it could be the moment where we once again see that classic willing-himself-to-win-in-the-biggest-matches Rafa. Even though Federer was absolutely sensational in that 5th set AO comeback and it may not have mattered in the end, but we know damn well that Rafa feels like that was an opportunity that he missed. And I think that he is so desperate to get another major win after three years that he just will find a way… I know that sounds really vague. I just feel like Rafa will practically kill himself on the court to get this title. He’s come so far from the peak of his slump in 2015, and I just think it’s his time to finally reap the rewards… I just really do hope we get a classic final, either way.
MainATP,
You need to check out site rules here. Profanity is not appropriate here. Respond without that kind of language.
Ricky runs this site and makes the rules. Please respect others here. You can make your argument without the use of profanity.
Kevin, I agree with your above analysis.
I think that with fed beating Rafa at 2017 AO, has hardened Rafa to play at a high level and beat everyone ruthlessly and not go to the wire!
I think it could be tougher for Stan rip all those winners, like he did in 2015 final, against Rafa simply because Rafa’s shots bounce considerably higher than Novak’s. I feel like Stan will have to take the ball ealier than he does against other players if he wants to rip those winners against Rafa. I know that this is totally different from hard court tennis, but I think Stan should try to take a page out of Federer’s book in terms of taking the ball earlier. Because of how high Rafa’s ball bounces, Stan’s only choices are to either step into the court more to take it on the rise, or camp out waaay behind the baseline to wait until the ball is lower. And we know Stan is not on Fed’s level of taking it on the rise, so I’m not sure where that leaves him…
If Stan takes the ball early, chances are he’ll over hit his shots! He’s hitting very hard from the baseline and unless he can control his power very well, chances of over hitting is high. He doesn’t have the finesse of Fed.
If he stays further back, chances are he’ll hit some short balls, allowing Rafa to come forward to take advantage. Stan has to play to his own strength and protect his own weakness. Rafa is good at that and at digging at opponent’s weaknesses.
I think Stan’s game always used to give Nole problems. But Rafa and Fed are able to handle him except when they are not in good shape. Haven’t studied how Stan’s game matches against Muzz. But looking at the h2h 10-8, looks like Stan is quite a handful for Muzz too. Now it is quite possible Stan may win tomorrow but looking at past history and how their game matches up against each other, I would say Advantage Rafa by a big margin. lucky has analyzed the match up well and I have nothing to add.
I Like your summary Kevin ….
Thank you, Alison. 🙂
Nny and other Rafans…http://sport360.com/article/tennis/french_open/236852/rafael-nadal-v-stan-wawrinka-roland-garros-final-preview-key-stats-and-main-talking-points/
http://www.dnaindia.com/sports/report-french-open-2017-nadal-to-blow-away-wawarinka-to-win-15th-grand-slam-2468145
Hohohohoho!…I guess we have to find out tomorrow!!Wooohooo!!
MA,
Love the breakdown analysis of the final!
The second one was really offbeat! Astrology! It’s in the stars for Rafa!
?
Hey Nny!..Yeah!!..oh!This is another 2…hope u still didn’t read it Nny!..
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/tennis/2017/06/10/rafael-nadal-vs-stan-wawrinka-mark-petcheys-tactical-guide-french/
http://sport360.com/article/tennis/french_open/236909/rafael-nadal-might-win-a-10th-roland-garros-legends-and-players-find-it-outrageous/
MA,
Yes to the first link! Loved the reference to Thiem hitting “haymakers” and ending up hurting himself. Also enjoyed the analysis of Rafa’s game and how it relates to Stan’s game, i.e. what Stan needs to do and what will not work against Rafa.
Putting that lead tape in the top of Rafa’s racket seems to have made a difference. Who knew?
Thanks as always for these great reads!
??
You’re very much welcome Nny!!Hehehe…Yeah!Roger changed to a bigger racquets and make a havoc of is own..and Rafa tweak here and there on his own racquet and games..and Voila!…If Rafa win his 10th…u just be ready at your house coz i will give u the BIGGEST and WARMEST and SWEETEST FLYING KISS AND HUGS YOU’VE EVER EXPERIENCE Nny!!Wooohooo!!…But,ooppss!!..to the final first!!Heh heh…
And Nny!…Hey..did u see the Astrologer’s prediction as well?I clicked his name and guess what?He predict Roger will win at AO and Roger win!…he predict Real madrid win in UCL and Real Madrid win!and he’s also predict that Novak will decline after splitting with Becker..and the player’s that was born in 1990’s would pose a huge headache’s for Novak and it happen’s too Nny!!….Oh My God!!Hahaha…
Yes! That astrologer must know something!
Unbelievable!
Love it!
You are helping to distract me as the pre-match nerves are kicking in!
Thank you!
?
Hehehehe….Yeah!Nny!!That’s my motives first and foremost!!…That’s alright Nny!…I feels that stan will fight like mad dog but Rafa will prevent him like a mad dog too!..and my gut tells me he will get his La Decima..Stan will get his La Dilemma and us fans will get La Palma in our heads!Lol!!
Opps!Forgot to predict!heh heh!….Rafa in 3…or 4!!
Who can recommend a good betting site?
Are you a bettor, Hawk? I realized years ago that engaging in it seriously would only put me in the poor house. However, if I was a betting man, I would be very tempted to bet against Novak winning Wimbledon (still 5/2, better than Roger at 3/1).
Actually, you can get even better odds on that one at bet365: 9/4.
Never placed a sports bet in my life.
But I’d like to lose a small chunk of change tomorrow.
bet365.com it is.
Wish me bad luck!!!
Good luck!
Good luck means for me that Rafa will win!
#YouveBeenSchooledByHawkstradamus
You’re braver than me. If I were to bet it would be on a match where I don’t care much about the outcome. I know enough not to trust my biases (!) and in any case I don’t think I could take the stress if my man were losing.
In this case I would bet a small sum against my favorite. First of all: betting that Rafa wins, doesn’t make you any money. But if he wins I won’t mind losing a bit of money. But should he lose I will at least make a bit of money, lol! I guess one could call that risk-reward distribution 😉
That said, I’m not up to getting into the intricacies of sports betting right now. It’s too hot today. I really don’t envy the players. The heat might well be a factor today. Does anyone know how Wawa fares in very hot conditions? I know that Novak doesn’t like it and Rafa used to do well if the sun is shining. But I think he can’t handle the heat as well as in former times.
I bet an amount i would be willing to pay to see him win.
Hope I don’t get a 550% refund.
It’s interesting to me that Vegas still has Novak ahead of Fed to win Wimbledon… I could understand Murray because he is defending champ, world #1, and isn’t playing quite as bad as Novak. But after everything that’s happened this season with Novak, they still think he’s more likely to win than Federer? I mean, I totally get that they have to take into consideration that Novak has won Wimbledon two of the last three years and beat Federer in the final. That’s huge. I just would have thought that Novak’s relative collapse over the last year would give him slightly lower odds. I honestly don’t know much about how Vegas odds work, though… I wonder, if Fed manages to win his lead-up grass tournaments, will his odds get better? I feel like no one has any idea where Fed’s level will be when he returns. I guess we’ll see! It would be awesome, imo, if we got a Fed vs. fellow-big-4 guy in the Wimbledon final this year. Who knows- Rafa could potentially do some damage this year, especially if he wins RG…
After initial odds are set, basically comes down to supply and demand.
As more money is bet on Djokovic, his odds to lose start increasing.
Odds I’m looking at have Murray a slight favourite over Federer. Nole slightly less favoured than Fed.
Rafa fourth.
Raonic 5th currently at 12.0
Interesting. Raonic not looking good after last year’s poor performance in the final? I still think he’s more likely to win than Rafa. Dunno. Unless tomorrow’s match totally wrecks Rafa he should be coming into the grass season pretty healthy, but there’s so many big hitters out there now…
I think Raonic is a great value bet.
He’s playing better now than 12 months ago.
Oddsportal – shows all the best odds of the bookies.
I won 7500 from Ostapenko match. I will put 500 to bet on Stan to beat Nadull. I believe Stan will beat the desperado. The underdog will win just like the women final.
Nicely done, Frank. What were the odds for Ostapenko in the final?
Ostapenko was +250. That break point winner in the third set that hit the net 3 ft outside the line was the craziest shot in the most important of circumstances that I have watched in quite some time.
I parlayed Ostapenko and Stanimal for 300. Payout is 4900… True value play. Nadal path has been a joke, Stan is in great form vs some strong opponents this FO…
Don’t care about hype or H2H… No value in laying that much on Rafa. Made that mistake of laying 2400 on Nole in 2015. Not worth the stress. If you’re looking to take Rafa, might as well parlay him with Spain, Turkey world cup qualifiers.
If Stanimal goes up a set, I’ll take Rafa with the cheaper number…
Tapwrit winning Belmont also is making me feel lucky…
Ostapenko battling back when dead in the water…was +1500 in live action when down 3-0 in 2nd set…
What do you think would be good value for Rafa?
My head is just saying, Stan +2.5 sets at -140.
Vegas and bookmakers want people to bite on Nadal at -2.5. I just don’t see it.
Stan’s match winner is $5.50 (now $5.00 5 mins before the match). At some stages, if the match goes tight, I will cashout my profits (when the payout for Stan goes down to $2.50).
You’d do better to cash out now fedfawn.
Blinded fedfawns are everywhere.
(until their surrogate loses today)
Fail harder LOL.
Nadal in 3. 6-3,6-4,6-2
Rafa in 3. He could get nervous so it can stretch to 4 sets.
Stan will see his power game diffused in a way that will rattle him. I remember how so many were behind soderling in 2010 and hoping he would defeat Rafa. While I acknowledge Stan is a bugger threat, I am expecting and hoping for a similar outcome.
god of clay for La Decima.
Rafa in 4 if the Stan from the semi turns up.
Stan in 5 if 2015 Stan at RG turns up.
Ostapenko is an amazing talent.