French Open final preview and prediction: Wawrinka vs. Nadal

Rafael Nadal and Stan Wawrinka will be squaring off for the 19th time in their careers when they collide in the French Open final on Sunday afternoon.

Nadal is dominating the head-to-head series 15-3, including 6-1 on clay and 1-0 at Roland Garros. Wawrinka, however, has won three of their last six meetings and he got the best of their only previous Grand Slam title match via a 6-3, 6-2, 3-6, 6-3 decision at the 2014 Australian Open. The two veterans have not faced each other since last spring, when Nadal cruised through a Monte-Carlo quarterfinal encounter 6-1, 6-4.

The fourth-ranked Spaniard triumphed at Monte-Carlo two months ago for his 10th title there, accomplished the same feat in Barcelona, and he is now bidding for No. 10 on the red clay of Paris. He also triumphed in Madrid. All of that has a resulted in a 23-1 clay-court record in 2017, with his lone blemish coming against Dominic Thiem in the Rome quarterfinals. Nadal avenged that defeat without any trouble on Friday, clobbering the 23-year-old Austrian 6-3, 6-4, 6-0. He preceded that victory by taking out Benoit Paire, Robin Haase, Nikoloz Basilashvili, Roberto Bautista Agut, and Pablo Carreno Busta all without dropping a single set.

Three of the four semifinalists were perfect in total sets this fortnight prior to Friday: Nadal, Thiem, and Wawrinka. The third-ranked Swiss rolled over Jozef Kovalik, Alexandr Dolgopolov, Fabio Fognini, Gael Monfils, and Marin Cilic before running into serious trouble against Andy Murray. Wawrinka came within four points of a four-set defeat but eventually survived the longest match of the tournament to date 6-7(6), 6-3, 5-7, 7-6(3), 6-1 in four hours and 34 minutes. Less than three weeks ago he was just 16-8 overall in 2017, but he is now in the midst of a 10-match winning streak that also includes a clay-court title in Geneva.

“Stan won the last event in Geneva and now he’s in the final here,” Nadal commented. “So he’s [on] a good run. He’s in the final. So it’s the toughest opponent possible here.”

“I think to play Rafa on clay in French Open in a final is probably the biggest challenge you can have in tennis,” Wawrinka countered. “He’s the best player ever on clay. It’s for sure gonna be really difficult. But [at] the end of the day, it’s the final; the pressure is on both players. No one goes on the court thinking he has no pressure. We both want to win the title.”

The 32-year-old has apparently never felt such pressure, as he as a perfect 3-0 lifetime in major finals (2014 Australian Open, 2015 French Open, 2016 U.S. Open). But Nadal also has plenty of numbers going for him: he is 78-2 lifetime at the French Open with nine titles.

“Nine actually is my favorite number,” Nadal admitted after the semis. “But don’t get me wrong–I would prefer 10 over nine, no doubt.”

His preference will likely become reality on Sunday. The former world No. 1 bas been dominant at Roland Garros for more than a decade, has dominated this entire clay-court swing aside from one energy-deprived loss, and is extremely well-rested have lost a mere 29 games this whole tournament.

Pick: Nadal in 3

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