Roger Federer just won the Miami Open. Prior to that he finished runner-up at the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells. Three months into the 2019 campaign, Federer is No. 1 in the race to the Nitto ATP Finals.
So he’s going to win the French Open, right? Plus, Rafael Nadal is hurt!
Woah, woah, woah, slow your roll.
In actuality, it is unlikely that even the craziest of Federer fans is thinking like that. The 37-year-old Swiss hasn’t played on clay since 2016 as he prepares for his upcoming return to the red dirt in Madrid and Paris. He hasn’t played at Roland Garros since 2015. He hasn’t been past the quarterfinals at RG since 2012.
Moreover, Nadal—who withdrew prior to an Indian Wells semifinal against Federer and skipped Miami because of a knee injury—is already practicing on clay without any apparent issues. Dominic Thiem, the 2018 French Open runner-up, fared well even on hard courts (upset Federer in the Indian Wells final). Novak Djokovic lost early again in Indian Wells and Miami, but that certainly didn’t hinder the remainder of his 2018 season.
It’s obvious that clay-court expectations for Federer should be tempered. Sportsbooks that are listed at Amazing.bet have him as a +2500 fifth choice to win the French Open, behind Nadal, Djokovic, Thiem, and Alexander Zverev. And just ask Federer, himself.
“I’m not very confident going into this clay-court season,” the world No. 4 admitted after capturing the Miami title. “I can tell you that because…I don’t know…I [don’t] even remember how to slide anymore. I’m taking baby steps at this point. To be honest, I didn’t play one point–not one shot on clay, I don’t believe–last year. Two years ago I played two days. Three years ago I played not feeling great in Monaco and Rome and all that…. I really don’t know what to expect.
“And I think what this win does for me, it just takes even more pressure off from the clay-court season. And I anyway wanted to play the clay in not a relaxed fashion but, ‘Let’s just go and do it and prepare well.’ That’s what I’m looking at now the next four or five weeks with my fitness coach and coaches…, figuring out how we’re gonna go about it.
“Madrid…let’s see what happens, anyway. Obviously I want to be ready for Paris. I hope all of that work is going to pay off for the grass-court season and also for the (summer) hard-court season.”
Yes, Federer is already looking ahead to surfaces that suit his game much better than clay—even though he won’t play on them until late June and into July.
Sure, he’s finally playing on clay again. But he’s not crazy about. And your expectations shouldn’t be, either.
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