Dubai SF preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Medvedev

When Novak Djokovic and Daniil Medvedev are at their best, their rivalry is one of the best currently going on the ATP Tour.

It’s safe to say they are both at their best right now.

Djokovic and Medvedev have rolled into the semifinals of the Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships and will face each other for the 14th time in their careers on Friday night. The head-to-head series stands at 9-4 in favor of Djokovic, including 8-3 on hard courts. He has won four in a row since losing to Medvedev 6-4, 6-4, 6-4 when the Serb had a chance to capture the calendar-year Grand Slam in the 2021 U.S. Open final.

It’s not all doom and gloom for Medvedev, however. Three of those recent losses came when he was slumping last year and at the start of this season, but despite his poor form he still pushed Djokovic to a third-set tiebreaker at the Nitto ATP Finals. Medvedev’s cold streak has since come to an end, and that’s an understatement. The seventh-ranked Russian has won back-to-back titles in Rotterdam and Doha and is on an overall 12-match winning streak. He booked his place in the Dubai semis by beating Matteo Arnaldi, Alexander Bublik, and Borna Coric all in straight sets, and against Coric he won 21 consecutive points to end the match.

Of course, no one on tour is hotter than Djokovic. The 35-year-old is 15-0 this season and he is 40-1 in his last 41 tournament matches (not including the Laver Cup) dating back to the start of Wimbledon last summer. Djokovic needed a third-set tiebreaker to get past Tomas Machac in his Dubai opener, but after that he easily dismissed Tallon Griekspoor and Hubert Hurkacz.

Like Medvedev, Griekspoor and Hurkacz were both red hot before running into Djokovic. And like pretty much everyone else in the sport since last summer, they met their match in the form of the world No. 1.

Anything less than one of the best matches of the season so far would be a disappointment, but at the moment it’s impossible to pick against Djokovic. It should also be noted that he is 46-7 lifetime in Dubai and two wins away from a sixth title.

Pick: Djokovic in 3