Davis Cup quarterfinals preview and predictions

A Davis Cup tie at home in Spain and on clay may be just what the doctor ordered for Rafael Nadal from an absence that lasted more than two months dating back to the Australian Open. The world No. 1, who has been sidelined by a hip problem, will have a chance to get at least one singles match if not two matches under his belt prior to the clay-court swing. The Spaniards are welcoming Germany to Valencia for a quarterfinal contest, while the schedule is rounded out by France vs. Italy, Belgium vs. the United States, and Kazakhstan vs. Croatia.

Germany vs. Spain

Where: Valencia, Spain
Surface: Outdoor clay

Germany did extremely well to go into Australia and emerge with a first-round victory over Nick Kyrgios and company. Picking up a road win over Spain would require an even more monumental effort given that Nadal is back in business for the host nation. There are two—and only two—successful exit routes for the Germans: 1) if Nadal is less than 100 percent, or 2) if they win all three rubbers in which Nadal is not involved. The good news for the visitors is that they are armed with a strong squad led by Alexander Zverev, Philipp Kohlschreiber, and first-round doubles heroes Jan-Lennard Struff and Tim Puetz. That is unlikely to be anywhere near enough, because Spain also has David Ferrer, Feliciano Lopez, and Marc Lopez at its disposal.

Pick: Spain 3, Germany 0

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France vs. Italy

Where: Genoa, Italy
Surface: Outdoor clay

France’s title defense got off to a rocky start in which it messed around at home against the Netherlands but managed to survive in four competitive rubbers. The draw gets much tougher in the quarters, when the Frenchmen face Italy on the road and on clay. They are somewhat depleted, too, as Lucas Pouille and Jeremy Chardy are getting the nod in singles with Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Gael Monfils once again on the shelf. The Italians are countering with Fabio Fognini and Andreas Seppi, while an intriguing doubles rubber is likely to pit Fognini and Simone Bolelli against Nicolas Mahut and Pierre-Hugues Herbert. In what is a relatively even matchup of rosters, home-court advantage should tip the scales in Italy’s favor.

Pick: Italy 3, France 1

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Belgium vs. United States

Where: Nashville, Tennessee
Surface: Indoor hard

This could have been a competitive tie if Belgium brought David Goffin and Steve Darcis with it to Nashville, Tenn. Without Goffin and Darcis, this should be an absolute beatdown in the United States’ favor. The Americans are fully loaded with Miami champion John Isner, world No. 14 Sam Querrey, Indian Wells doubles champion Jack Sock (won it with Isner), and 2017 French Open doubles winner Ryan Harrison. The Belgians, on the other hand, can muster up nothing more than Ruben Bemelmans and Joris De Loore to counter Team USA’s impressive lineup. Bemelmans could at least make a singles rubber or two somewhat interesting, but the United States should lose no matches and probably no more than two sets in total.

Pick: United States 3, Belgium 0

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Kazakhstan vs. Croatia

Where: Varazdin, Croatia
Surface: Indoor clay

What is Kazakhstan doing in the Davis Cup quarterfinals? Well, it had the benefit of facing Switzerland in round one—a Switzerland without, of course, Roger Federer and Stan Wawrinka. The Kazakhs cleaned up 3-0 against a Swiss lineup that included Henri Laaksonen, Adrian Bodmer, Luca Margaroli, and Marc-Andrea Huesler. There will be no such breaks this time around. Not only does Kazakhstan have to go on the road for a tie with Croatia, but it also has to go up against Marin Cilic and Borna Coric in singles and Ivan Dodig in doubles. Cilic was the Australian Open runner-up and he is third in the rankings, while Coric made a recent run to the Indian Wells semifinals. Mikhail Kukushkin and friends may be hard-pressed to snag just one point.

Pick: Croatia 3, Kazakhstan 0

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