Chengdu SF previews and predictions: Fognini vs. Fritz, Sousa vs. Tomic

Two seeds remain in Chengdu, where semifinal action takes place on Saturday. No. 1 Fabio Fognini will continue his campaign against Taylor Fritz, while No. 7 Joao Sousa faces resurgent qualifier Bernard Tomic.

(1) Fabio Fognini vs. Taylor Fritz

Fognini and Fritz will be going head-to-head for the first time in their careers when they battle for a spot in the Chengdu Open final on Saturday. Thanks to an outstanding 39-18 record for the season, Fognini remains in distant Nitto ATP Finals contention as he begins his fall swing. The 13th-ranked Italian has not done much since capturing summer titles in Bastad and Los Cabos, but so far this week he has disposed of Ruben Bemelmans and Matthew Ebden in straight sets.

Fritz has already set a personal record with 19 ATP-level match victories in a single season (six better than last year), climbing back up to 62nd in the rankings. The American reached the U.S. Open third round and he booked his spot in the Chengdu semis with wins over Chun Hsin Tseng, Mikhail Kukushkin, and Sam Querrey. Fognini, though, is unusually solid at the moment and he has lost only twice on hard courts to players outside the top 60 since January.

Pick: Fognini in 3

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(7) Joao Sousa vs. (Q) Bernard Tomic

Both Sousa and Tomic have done it the hard way so far in Chengdu. Tomic had to qualify just to get into the main draw, after which he edged Bradley Klahn 6-7(6), 7-6(3), 6-2 and outlasted Lloyd Harris 7-6(5), 2-6, 7-6(6) prior to a more straightforward 6-2, 6-4 quarterfinal win over Felix Auger-Aliassime. Sousa has required three sets in each of his three matches, beating Tim Smyczek, Vasek Pospisil (7-0 in a third-set tiebreaker), and Malek Jaziri.

The result is a fourth career contest between Tomic and Sousa on Saturday, with the 25-year-old Australian sweeping the head-to-head series 3-0. He prevailed once in three straight seasons from 2015 through 2017, with the trio of victories coming on hard courts (most recently via a 6-3, 3-6, 6-3 decision last fall in Tokyo). Sousa, though, is currently ranked 73 spots ahead of his opponent (50th to 123rd) and he is coming off a fourth-round performance at the U.S. Open. Portugal’s top player is riding a ton of confidence and should be too tough both physically and mentally for Tomic.

Pick: Sousa in 3

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