Rafael Nadal and Fabio Fognini will renew their intriguing 2015 rivalry when they face each other again on Saturday in Beijing. Novak Djokovic and David Ferrer are also aiming for a place in the title match.
(3) Rafael Nadal vs. Fabio Fognini
Nadal and Fognini will be squaring off for the ninth time in their careers and for the fifth time this season when they meet again in the China Open semifinals on Saturday. The head-to-head series stands at 5-3 in favor of Nadal, but all three of Fognini’s victories have come this season. Fognini prevailed in Rio de Janeiro and Barcelona before Nadal triumphed in the Hamburg final, thus setting the stage for an improbable and dramatic U.S. Open showdown. In a fourth-round night match in Arthur Ashe Stadium, Fognini stormed back from two sets and a break down to pull off a 3-6, 4-6, 6-4, 6-3, 6-4 upset.
Neither man had an easy time setting up installment No. 9 of this budding rivalry. Nadal dropped serve four times in his Beijing opener against Di Wu, got past Vasek Pospisil 7-6(3), 6-4, then overcame Jack Sock 3-6, 6-4, 6-3 on Friday. The eighth-ranked Spaniard is 48-15 for the season and looking for his fourth title. Fognini destroyed Martin Klizan then needed three sets to survive both David Goffin and Pablo Cuevas. The 28th-ranked Italian has won eight hard-court matches in approximately one month after winning none this entire year prior to the U.S. Open. When motivated, Fognini can be borderline dominant. Case in point: his six victorious set scores this week are 6-2, 6-1, 6-2, 6-2, 6-1, and 6-2. The underdog has Nadal’s number right now and the trend should continue.
Pick: Fognini in 3
[polldaddy poll=9118901]
(1) Novak Djokovic vs. (6) John Isner
Djokovic’s record in Beijing now stands at a perfect 27-0, the second best start to a tournament anyone has ever had in ATP history (behind only Nadal’s 31-0 mark at the French Open). And the top-ranked Serb is showing no signs of slowing down, having clobbered Simone Bolelli, Ze Zhang, and John Isner this week. Djokovic is 66-5 for the year and seemingly on course for his sixth title in as many appearances at this event.
Next up for the No. 1 seed is a 21st career encounter with Ferrer. A 5-15 record is actually quite strong for Ferrer compared to that of many other players against Djokovic, but it does not really tell the true story. Once 5-6 in the head-to-head series, the Spaniard has lost nine in a row dating back to the start of the 2010 season. They have faced each other twice in 2015, with Djokovic getting the job done 7-5, 7-5 in in Miami and 6-4, 6-4 in Rome. A resurgent Ferrer is healthy and building on last week’s Kuala Lumpur title with straight-set wins this week over Thomaz Bellucci, Lukas Rosol, and Yen-Hsun Lu. This, however, is obviously a terrible matchup for the world No. 7. He will get more games than the four Isner managed on Friday, but Ferrer almost certainly will not steal a set.
Pick: Djokovic in 2 losing more than 7 games
[polldaddy poll=9119318]
Two spaniards in the Beijing final, so far Rafa and Muguruza. Hope they make it 3 with Ferrer.
Rafa also needs to improve his ROS. He could play Dr Ivo in the 2nd round in Shanghai.
Has anyone noticed that there have been precious few TV warnings or penalties since the petition was lodged?
Agreed. Time violations are now few and far between. At the same time Rafa is also reducing the length of his pre-serve rituals.
Is it true that this TV thing started because of Fed? If its true then he must have regretted it; for he may be barking at the wrong tree(ie targetting the wrong person). He probably didnt expect that with Rafa in a slump, Novak now fears no one and no one could stop him from picking up all the slams and chasing after Fed’s slam records!
Fed himself couldnt even stop Novak at his own two favorite slams, ie Wimbledon and USO, so it looks like he needs some help to stop Novak at all the slams now. Fed needs Rafa to come back and stop Novak, when Murray and Fed himself couldnt and Stan is too inconsistent to do so.
The final is at 7.30 pm local time tomorrow..
Rafa really needs to up his level tomorrow when he faces Novak. The way Novak is playing now, no one can beat him; maybe Fed.
There’s something that I really dislike about Ferrer – why must he work so hard to beat Rafa, but once he sees Novak across the net, it’s like he’s a mouse seeing a cat? The way he plays, it’s really brainless; why stay at the baseline to rally with Novak when he is good enough to move to the net? Why only does that,i.e. moving to the net when he’s facing Rafa?? Why so keen of beating your fellow Spaniard but so afraid of the Serb (Novak) and the Swiss(Fed)??
Matchup. Ferrer is good at hitting balls that are at a comfortable enough height and depth. Djokovic doesn’t give him that, and is better at redirection. It’s a bit like why Federer wouldn’t have as much of a hard time against Djokovic as he would against Nadal.
Nah, Rafa always beat Ferrer in the past, at leasr on clay, and Ferrer could beat Novak in the past. Its like Ferrer loses confidence once he sees Novak across the net now. Why keeps staying at the baseline to rally with Novak when hes capable of moving forward to take the ball early and takes some risk? He may not beat Novak but at least tries make it more competitive and the scoreline more respectable.
Nadal vs Ferrer H2H is 23-6.
Well we haven’t been watching the same match then, the depth of Djokovic’s groundstrokes wouldn’t let Ferrer do take the ball early or move forward. He is a dimunitive man relatively speaking and his limited reach also means he is on the back foot when Djokovic redirects.
Furthermore, his game is reliant on supreme timing or anticipation to take the ball on the rise all the time a la Federer. Lack of the latter quality also means he wouldn’t pounce on the odd short ball (which seemed to be very rare yeseterday).
Pointless talking about the past. Both Djokovic and Nadal were very different players, and Djokovic is playing some of the best tennis of his life, even better than 2011 for me.
Probably because he thinks nothing short of digging in will work against Rafa. This goes for other players against Rafa, they seem to bring their best against him. Fog never competes with Djoko, he hands it to him with ribbons on. Look at Isner’s performance yesterday – he served 3 aces in the whole match.
lucky,
It’s good to see you back here again sharing your thoughts. Novak is the gold standard right now in men’s tennis. Rafa will have to raise his level of play if he wants to be competitive. I think we need Rafa back at his best, because when he’s on his game he can take down Novak.
The comments you made about Ferrer resonated with me. While I respect Ferrer making the most of what he has, I also think he has to work way too hard in matches. I think right now Novak has the aura of invincibility thing going for him. Players are going to go out there and maybe think that they don’t have much of a chance.
I swear Djokovic was playing a cat and mouse with Ferrer at 5:2
The two commies were in competition with each other to see who could clock up the most sycophantic cooments about Djokovic. That or Eurosport are running an incentive bonus scheme based on the qauntity of praise spewed out.
I also have a sneaking suspicion the bizarre statistics he posted for the SF are a smokescreen as to his true level. I trust Rafa knows him well enough not to be taken in by that kind of gamesmanship.
^^ ……a cat and mouse game…………
Tennis is a mental game. It’s an unrelenting process of staying in the now and keeping your focus. Djokovic has been prone to lapses in the past and still is every now and then. Nadal knows Djokovic’s true level; it was well on display for the first 7 games of the set on television. So how exactly would Djokovic’s cat and mouse ploy work?
well said
Have you ever watched a cat tormenting a mouse? He was letting Ferrer ‘get away’ by playing an UE or an easy shot then ‘pouncing’ with the killer blow to win the point. Well, that’s what it looked like to me at the time 🙂
I qualified my second paragraph: Rafa knows not to be taken in by Djokovic’s antics.
I know Rafa may not beat Novak but just hope that he tries his best to make it competitive and test his own current level. I hope he wont lose to a Novak who’s playing only at second gear; at least must force Novak to play at a high level. Vamos Rafa!
My gut feeling is Rafa will go for broke in this match. Tomorrow will be an indication of just how far up the ladder to recovery he has climbed.
I hope he doesn’t get nervous.
I certainly hope that is what Rafa does. He has no reason to hold back. If he loses, he loses. But at least go for his shots and put it all out there on the line. Then he will at least know he’s given it his best. He can live with that.
lucky,
I agree with your thoughts @ 2:18 pm. I do hope that Rafa will fight and do his best. Then he can take the measure of himself against the guy who is currently the best. He will know where he’s at and what has to be done.
I do want Rafa to push Novak. Don’t let him get off with not playing his best. Make him earn it.
ed, the sycophancy was too much for me so I switched the TV off and went for a long walk and only came back after checking the final score.
Ferrer ranks as THE No.1 journeyman. And he has had a very successful career as such. But at the end of the day a great journeyman is what he is.
It’s very true. Ferrer is the ultimate journeyman player. He’s done well to work with what he’s got, but he’s not going to measure up to the top four.
Sorry but Rafa has a slim chance imo.
I agree with you. But let us to dream …:)
I am not sure how hard will Rafa push Novak in this final…it really means little to Rafa because he has a lot more work to do next week…killing himself against an in-form egoistically confident Nole will not do much…
Novak is playing really well and this tourney is like his own…he is won it so many times that it almost looks inevitable to do it again…don’t get me wrong…it’s not that I would not like Rafa to beat Novak and win the title…but Rafa’s form is not yet there to deal easily with Novak and it would take tremendous effort from Rafa to be hand in hand with the Serb…I would rather see Rafa do well in Shanghai and earn more points…however, if Novak’s level dropped for some reason and Rafa manages to take advantage of it I’ll take it with all my heart… 🙂
I hope Rafa plays tension free…and displays some of his best tennis and his latest improvements…
Vamos Rafa!
I am not sure how hard will Rafa push Novak in this final…it really means little to Rafa because he has a lot more work to do next week…killing himself against an in-form egoistically confident Nole will not do much…
Novak is playing really well and this tourney is like his own…he is won it so many times that it almost looks inevitable to do it again…don’t get me wrong…it’s not that I would not like Rafa to beat Novak and win the title…but Rafa’s form is not yet there to deal easily with Novak and it would take tremendous effort from Rafa to be hand in hand with the Serb…I would rather see Rafa do well in Shanghai and earn more points…however, if Novak’s level dropped for some reason and Rafa manages to take advantage of it I’ll take it with all my heart… 🙂
I hope Rafa plays tension free…and displays some of his best tennis and his latest improvements…
Vamos Rafa!
I agree that Rafa should just go for it like he’s got nothing to lose because no one expects him to win anyway………………..well, I do, but the commies don;t.
I don’t think Rafa/Novak would kill themselves winning this title. I don’t expect a 3 or 4 hours match. Also, they may start their Shanghai matches on next Wed, so I don’t think it’ll affect them that much.
This is a quick HC so I don’t expect too many long rallies between them. I do agree that Rafa should just go out there and play like there’s nothing to lose, doesn’t think too much and goes for his instinctive shots, for I feel once Rafa starts thinking too much, he’ll get nervous and feels the tension.
[polldaddy poll=9120736]
[polldaddy poll=9120741]
So what do you guys forecast for tomm?
Is there anyone expecting an upset?
I feel Novak wins in 3 tomm. Won’t be straights
I’m sitting on the fence on this one. As I said earlier it’s not clear where Djokovic is atm.
He’s not played his best tennis so far but this is a final so comme d’habitude he may well have been saving his best for this moment. If that is the case then I shall be happy as long as he acquits himself well.
as long as he (Rafa) acquits himself well
Djoker is under pressure because he won’t want to burst his bubble by losing to Rafa atm so I hope that gets to him.
I don’t think Paire is yet at the level to take Warwinka down. At his best he is capable of beating almost anyone but he still far too erractic – either very, very good or absolutely terrible. This is his first 500 level tourney against a two times Slam winner plus he has played an awful lot of tennis recently and has some kind of foot injury. I would love to be proved wrong.
Wawrinka in 2
Maybe it’ll be like Beijing final of 2013? Or Miami final 2014?
Or Rafa could make it more competitive in 3 sets. I hope he at least gets a set.
I checked Novak’s records at Beijing, he played there since 2009, except 2011, and he had only lost a set three times, once to Berrer and twice to Verdasco. He was scarily good in Bejing; this year he only lost 14 games on his way to the final, and he need not even moved out of second gear to beat all his opponents, including the no.7th ranked player!
don’t think that Rafa is quite there yet. He’s certainly on his way back but he’ll be lucky to take a set.
7 games, less or more?
Mikkers, I only watched 3 games of the Djoker/Ferrer match before I decided to go for a walk because there is nothing worse than watching ping pong.
I hope Rafa just comes out and swings freely.
http://rlv.zcache.com/vamos_rafa_with_flag_of_spain_sticker-r5b169e45925a4dc3870a8a8ab097dc13_v9waf_8byvr_324.jpg