Beijing SF previews and picks: Nadal vs. Fognini, Djokovic vs. Ferrer

Fognini 2Rafael Nadal and Fabio Fognini will renew their intriguing 2015 rivalry when they face each other again on Saturday in Beijing. Novak Djokovic and David Ferrer are also aiming for a place in the title match.

(3) Rafael Nadal vs. Fabio Fognini

Nadal and Fognini will be squaring off for the ninth time in their careers and for the fifth time this season when they meet again in the China Open semifinals on Saturday. The head-to-head series stands at 5-3 in favor of Nadal, but all three of Fognini’s victories have come this season. Fognini prevailed in Rio de Janeiro and Barcelona before Nadal triumphed in the Hamburg final, thus setting the stage for an improbable and dramatic U.S. Open showdown. In a fourth-round night match in Arthur Ashe Stadium, Fognini stormed back from two sets and a break down to pull off a 3-6, 4-6, 6-4, 6-3, 6-4 upset.

Neither man had an easy time setting up installment No. 9 of this budding rivalry. Nadal dropped serve four times in his Beijing opener against Di Wu, got past Vasek Pospisil 7-6(3), 6-4, then overcame Jack Sock 3-6, 6-4, 6-3 on Friday. The eighth-ranked Spaniard is 48-15 for the season and looking for his fourth title. Fognini destroyed Martin Klizan then needed three sets to survive both David Goffin and Pablo Cuevas. The 28th-ranked Italian has won eight hard-court matches in approximately one month after winning none this entire year prior to the U.S. Open. When motivated, Fognini can be borderline dominant. Case in point: his six victorious set scores this week are 6-2, 6-1, 6-2, 6-2, 6-1, and 6-2. The underdog has Nadal’s number right now and the trend should continue.

Pick: Fognini in 3

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(1) Novak Djokovic vs. (6) John Isner

Djokovic’s record in Beijing now stands at a perfect 27-0, the second best start to a tournament anyone has ever had in ATP history (behind only Nadal’s 31-0 mark at the French Open). And the top-ranked Serb is showing no signs of slowing down, having clobbered Simone Bolelli, Ze Zhang, and John Isner this week. Djokovic is 66-5 for the year and seemingly on course for his sixth title in as many appearances at this event.

Next up for the No. 1 seed is a 21st career encounter with Ferrer. A 5-15 record is actually quite strong for Ferrer compared to that of many other players against Djokovic, but it does not really tell the true story. Once 5-6 in the head-to-head series, the Spaniard has lost nine in a row dating back to the start of the 2010 season. They have faced each other twice in 2015, with Djokovic getting the job done 7-5, 7-5 in in Miami and 6-4, 6-4 in Rome. A resurgent Ferrer is healthy and building on last week’s Kuala Lumpur title with straight-set wins this week over Thomaz Bellucci, Lukas Rosol, and Yen-Hsun Lu. This, however, is obviously a terrible matchup for the world No. 7. He will get more games than the four Isner managed on Friday, but Ferrer almost certainly will not steal a set.

Pick: Djokovic in 2 losing more than 7 games

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32 Comments on Beijing SF previews and picks: Nadal vs. Fognini, Djokovic vs. Ferrer

  1. Rafa’s not winning enough points on second serves. 38%? Even so, he still won the first set. Now he needs to keep it up.

  2. Rafa is better player today than in that USO match despite making UEs…Fog is playing well and with huge confidence as expected but Rafa’s being less nervous and it makes a difference on key points.
    Ajde Rafa! ❤

  3. Serving first is a huge advantage, I don’t know why Rafa always elects to receive; he says it’s to calm his nerves at the start of the match.

  4. Rafa is doing some things much better than he did in that USO match. For one thing, he’s serving a lot better. He’s been using the body serve very effectively in the match. He’s also getting depth and penetration on his groundstrokes. He’s been very aggressive in this set, looking to move into the net to close out points.

    Rafa still needs to find his forehand. He hasn’t been getting enough power on his money shot. At times he can hit it the way he used to, but he’s still dumping forehands into the net.

    If Rafa can hold one more service game or get the break, he will win this match.

  5. Rafa wins in straight sets! I am happy to be wrong on this one, thinking it would go three sets. This is a sweet one for Rafa after what happened at the USO.

    Rafa is in the final! 🙂

  6. Bravo Rafa!!!!! So proud of our boy! The nerves are almost gone, the confidence is getting back…beware the rest of the field! Rafa is traveling fast to his former self and once he is there nothing will be like in 2015!
    That’s the right attitude, my dear Spanish hero! Rafa begins trusting himself and it will certainly lead to cutting those UEs.
    Progress is what matters!
    Vamos! Ajde Rafa!

  7. MailOnline, Oct. 10, 2015: ¤¤ Rafael Nadal beats Fabio Fognini…
    (Excerpts)
    Nadal said: “I am happy to be in the final obviously. It is a good result for me, a very positive one. For me to be in the final is great news and tomorrow is a match to try to enjoy and try to play the way that I want to play.”
    He said: “It was a tough first set, as I expected, and a tough match in general, but I think I played well. I played much closer to the baseline than previous days, that’s very important for me and very important for my game. The position for me on the court today was more aggressive and that’s why I was able to beat him today after a couple of defeats.”
    .
    Fognini’s victories over Nadal this year and an argument between the pair during the final of the Hamburg Open in August – which Nadal went on to win – had added some spice to this particular match-up.
    Although all seemed calm between the pair on the court on Saturday, there was one notable incident when Nadal’s coach and uncle Toni was seen reacting with frustration towards Fognini from his courtside seat.
    Fognini said: “What happened in Hamburg is in the past, for sure. But I have nothing to say with him [Nadal]. I have all respect with him outside and inside the court. I was telling another time, the history was not against him, but against his team, especially the uncle.”
    Nadal was quick, however, to play down any suggestion of any lingering issues with Fognini. He said: “I don’t know what’s going on, seriously. We had the issue that we had in Hamburg and that’s it.
    At the US Open, no problems. No problems today. It was a very easy match in terms of attitude for both of us. Very, very easy I think for the umpire.”¤¤
    Read more in:
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/tennis/article-3267403/Rafael-Nadal-beats-Fabio-Fognini-straight-sets-China-Open-reach-hard-court-final-18-months.html#ixzz3o9i6lV37

  8. Pennetta never had a crush on Rafa. She used to be Carlos Moya’s gf many years back and when asked about guys after their break up replied re Rafa that he was one of her best friends on tour but dating him would be “too weird”.

  9. come onnn ! Brilliant effort from Rafa. He is making fine progress now. This is a great, great result. He beat someone who had beaten him at diff junctures throughout the year and he did that by controlling his nerves , employing a good court position and being tactically smart.

    There is LOTS of room for improvement and the forehand is , as many of you mentioned, the shot that needs most work.

    He needs a lot more penetration on his forehand. There are other things he can do well but this is all part of the process.

    I am very happy he defeated Fog in straight sets and still has a lot that can be improved. That’s how good he is. Really happy with his attitude!

    Vamos Rafa. Just relax and emjoy the final.

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