Beijing SF previews and picks: Nadal vs. Fognini, Djokovic vs. Ferrer

Fognini 2Rafael Nadal and Fabio Fognini will renew their intriguing 2015 rivalry when they face each other again on Saturday in Beijing. Novak Djokovic and David Ferrer are also aiming for a place in the title match.

(3) Rafael Nadal vs. Fabio Fognini

Nadal and Fognini will be squaring off for the ninth time in their careers and for the fifth time this season when they meet again in the China Open semifinals on Saturday. The head-to-head series stands at 5-3 in favor of Nadal, but all three of Fognini’s victories have come this season. Fognini prevailed in Rio de Janeiro and Barcelona before Nadal triumphed in the Hamburg final, thus setting the stage for an improbable and dramatic U.S. Open showdown. In a fourth-round night match in Arthur Ashe Stadium, Fognini stormed back from two sets and a break down to pull off a 3-6, 4-6, 6-4, 6-3, 6-4 upset.

Neither man had an easy time setting up installment No. 9 of this budding rivalry. Nadal dropped serve four times in his Beijing opener against Di Wu, got past Vasek Pospisil 7-6(3), 6-4, then overcame Jack Sock 3-6, 6-4, 6-3 on Friday. The eighth-ranked Spaniard is 48-15 for the season and looking for his fourth title. Fognini destroyed Martin Klizan then needed three sets to survive both David Goffin and Pablo Cuevas. The 28th-ranked Italian has won eight hard-court matches in approximately one month after winning none this entire year prior to the U.S. Open. When motivated, Fognini can be borderline dominant. Case in point: his six victorious set scores this week are 6-2, 6-1, 6-2, 6-2, 6-1, and 6-2. The underdog has Nadal’s number right now and the trend should continue.

Pick: Fognini in 3

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(1) Novak Djokovic vs. (6) John Isner

Djokovic’s record in Beijing now stands at a perfect 27-0, the second best start to a tournament anyone has ever had in ATP history (behind only Nadal’s 31-0 mark at the French Open). And the top-ranked Serb is showing no signs of slowing down, having clobbered Simone Bolelli, Ze Zhang, and John Isner this week. Djokovic is 66-5 for the year and seemingly on course for his sixth title in as many appearances at this event.

Next up for the No. 1 seed is a 21st career encounter with Ferrer. A 5-15 record is actually quite strong for Ferrer compared to that of many other players against Djokovic, but it does not really tell the true story. Once 5-6 in the head-to-head series, the Spaniard has lost nine in a row dating back to the start of the 2010 season. They have faced each other twice in 2015, with Djokovic getting the job done 7-5, 7-5 in in Miami and 6-4, 6-4 in Rome. A resurgent Ferrer is healthy and building on last week’s Kuala Lumpur title with straight-set wins this week over Thomaz Bellucci, Lukas Rosol, and Yen-Hsun Lu. This, however, is obviously a terrible matchup for the world No. 7. He will get more games than the four Isner managed on Friday, but Ferrer almost certainly will not steal a set.

Pick: Djokovic in 2 losing more than 7 games

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26 Comments on Beijing SF previews and picks: Nadal vs. Fognini, Djokovic vs. Ferrer

  1. I am going with Rafa to right the ship and get the win in 3 sets.

    Novak will get the win against Ferrer in 2 sets.

  2. Even though he never hits any headlines you have got to admire Ferrer’s professionalism and attitude. Both Berdych and Ferrer won titles last week but despite being tired Ferrer regrouped and has reached the Sf in Beijing, whereas Berdych meekly surrendered against a clay court specialist Pablo Cuevas.

      • True. Berdych has gone down the drain since the beginning of the season with no injuries while ferrer was injured at middle of season but picked up from where he left off to take a fourth title in Kuala Lumpur.

  3. Oooo this is a tight one! The Fog again! PLEASE beat him now rafa.

    But given the condition and their recent history, I think Fog is the slight favorite here,

    Rafa can surely, surely, get his revenge though. He needs to play A LOT more aggressive than he did against Sock and be mentally very strong. If rafa can raise his level , he will have sufficient chances to win this.

    Rafa is at least fighting a lot better now. He can grind this out! Go RAFA!

  4. vamosrafa

    It’s nice to see you here and great to read your thoughts about Rafa playing Fog. I thought that Sock was Rafa’s first real test and he passed. After that dismal first set, he regrouped and came back strong to win the next two sets. He is fighting more now and that’s a good sign.

    I guess Fog would be the favorite now, but it’s hard to even type that! He got the big win against Rafa at the USO and will come out with a lot of confidence. It’s up to Rafa to be aggressive and play well enough to beat him. I don’t think that Rafa can afford to come out the way he did against Sock. Fog will take anything Rafa gives him and if he isn’t playing aggressive then Fog will have no problem stepping up and taking full advantage.

    I really want Rafa to beat Fog this time. He needs this. It would be nice to see him get to the final. That’s a great result for him.

    • Thanks NNY! 🙂

      absolutely! we so want Rafa to beat Fog this time. Please!

      I agree rafa cannot come out the way he did against Sock! Fog will easiy take advantage. Time to step up!

  5. I was watching Stan and Muller. Stan had a chance to serve it out but Muller broke back. They said on the tennis channel that Rafa and Fog are warming up. I expect them to switch to Rafa’s match once it starts.

    Let’s get this party started!

  6. Rafa just had a tough hold in his second service game. But some good serving got him through. Now on serve 2-2.

    Come on Rafa! You can do this!

  7. Fog played a loose game with a few UE’s and Rafa was able to take advantage to get the break. Rafa up 3-1. Now hold your serve, Rafa!

  8. Rafa double faulted away the break. No one is holding serve here. Six games with five breaks of serve.

    I think Rafa is having to work way too hard to win points. Fog is able to stay with him in these baseline rallies.

  9. Fog crapped out in that game and of course, it’s racket smashing time. Bad game from him and Rafa breaks to get the first set.

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