Hangzhou champion Alexander Bublik will get right back in action when he takes the court in Beijing on Friday against Adrian Mannarino. Chengdu runner-up Lorenzo Musetti faces familiar foe Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard.
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs. (4) Lorenzo Musetti
It is said that Mpetshi Perricard is the last person that anyone wants to face in the first round of a tournament, but in this case it may be the other way around–Mpetshi Perricard surely wants no part of Musetti. They have faced each other on three previous occasions and Musetti has prevailed every time, in a pair of tiebreakers at the 2024 Stuttgart event and in four sets at Wimbledon (2024) and at the U.S. Open (2025).
Based on current form, there is little reason to think that the tide will turn on Friday at the China Open. Musetti went on to reach the quarterfinals at Flushing Meadows and he is coming off a runner-up performance in Chengdu. Mpetshi Perricard is just 14-20 this year after falling to Alexander Shevchenko in the Chengdu second round. The 36th-ranked Frenchman is always dangerous because of his serve, but Musetti has handled it in the past and will probably do so again in the Beijing first round.
Pick: Musetti in 2
(Q) Adrian Mannarino vs. Alexander Bublik
Only Carlos Alcaraz has won more titles than Bublik this season. The world No. 16 has lifted four trophies on three different surfaces, most recently triumphing earlier this week in Hangzhou. Bublik has simply been on fire dating back to the French Open and his 31-17 record in 2025 has him in serious Nitto ATP Finals contention heading into the stretch run.
Up first for the 28-year-old on Friday is a second meeting with Mannarino, who lost their only previous matchup 6-3, 6-4 at the 2020 Doha tournament. The 37-year-old Frenchman is also playing well, coming in at 60th in the rankings with fourth-round efforts at both the Cincinnati Masters and the U.S. Open. Mannarino has made a living off making opponents beat themselves, which is something Bublik frequently used to do in the past. It’s safe to say that the Kazakh certainly isn’t doing it right now.
Pick: Bublik in 2
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Ouch.
Musetti in 2, Bublik in 2