Basel and Vienna previews and predictions

It’s only big tournaments the rest of the way in 2018—two 500s, a Masters 1000, and then the Nitto ATP Finals. That intriguing stretch run begins this week with a pair of 500-pointers in Basel and Vienna. Among those in action are Roger Federer, Alexander Zverev, Marin Cilic, Dominic Thiem, and Kevin Anderson.

Swiss Indoors Basel

Where: Basel, Switzerland
Surface: Indoor hard
Prize money: 1,984,420 Euros
Points: 500

Top seed: Roger Federer
Defending champion: Roger Federer

Draw analysis: Federer has played five straight tournaments without winning a title—a relative slump by his lofty standards. Is a return trip to his home event in Basel just what the doctor ordered? The 37-year-old Swiss could not have asked for a better draw for his bid to get back on track, as the unseeded contingent in the bracket’s top quarter is unspectacular and Federer’s nearest seed is an ice-cold Jack Sock. He will get things started against a struggling Filip Krajinovic before possibly getting a shot at revenge on U.S. Open conqueror John Millman. In-form youngsters Stefanos Tsitsipas and Daniil Medvedev are potential semifinal foes for Federer.

The bottom half is without question deeper, as Zverev and Cilic are joined by Stan Wawrinka, Denis Shapovlov, Matthew Ebden, and current Moscow finalist Adrian Mannarino. Wawrinka and Mannarino are going head-to-head right off the bat, while Cilic has to go up against Shapovalov. Zverev is kicking off his campaign against Robin Haase, who has won two straight matches over the German dating back to last fall.

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First-round upset alert: (SE) Ernests Gulbis vs. (5) Jack Sock. This, of course, would only be an upset according to ranking and seed. By the end of the year, though, Gulbis will likely be ranked the higher of the two. The Latvian is expected to reach at least No. 104 in the world even if he loses the Stockholm final to Tsitsipas, while Sock was 162^nd in the 2018 race prior to this past week. Ironically, Gulbis got a special exemption into Basel by beating none other than Sock in the Stockholm quarterfinals.

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Hot: Stefanos Tsitsipas, Daniil Medvedev, Matthew Ebden, John Millman

Cold: Jack Sock, Roberto Bautista Agut, Maximilian Marterer, Filip Krajinovic

Quarterfinal predictions: Roger Federer over Gilles Simon, Daniil Medvedev over Stefanos Tsitsipas, Marin Cilic over Taylor Fritz, and Alexander Zverev over Stan Wawrinka

Semifinals: Federer over Medvedev and Zverev over Cilic

Final: Zverev over Federer

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Erste Bank Open

Where: Vienna, Austria
Surface: Indoor hard
Points: 500
Prize money: 2,788,570 Euros

Top seed: Dominic Thiem
Defending champion: Lucas Pouille

Draw analysis: Vienna may not be as top heavy as Basel, but its depth puts the latter to shame. Eighteen of the 28 main-draw participants are ranked in the top 40, and that does not even include Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Sam Querrey, and Frances Tiafoe. Top two seeds Thiem and Anderson could clinch spots in the Nitto ATP Finals this week, likely doing so if they reach the final. Neither one, though, has a favorable draw (does anyone in a field this strong?). Thiem is on course to meet either Tsonga or Querrey in round two before possibly running into either Kei Nishkori or Karen Khachanov in the quarters. Anderson opens with on-fire opponent Nikoloz Basilashvili and Milos Raonic is a possible second-round adversary.

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If either Juan Martin Del Potro or Rafael Nadal withdraws from the year-end championship, the race for the last London spot is on between Nishikori and John Isner. Based on the draw, it’s advantage Isner this week. The 6’10’’ American, who passed Nishikori with a Stockholm semifinal after getting passed by Nishikori during the Asian swing, awaits a qualifier and would then face either Steve Johnson or a fatigued Gael Monfils (currently in the Antwerp final). Nishikori’s likely road to the semis is Tiafoe-Khachanov-Thiem.

First-round upset alert: Diego Schwartzman over (8) Kyle Edmund. Like Gulbis-Sock, this would not really be much of an upset aside from the fact that Edmund is seeded. The 15^th-ranked Brit is coming off a final appearance in Antwerp, so he will have had little rest before taking the court in Vienna. Schwartzman, who made a decent run to the Antwerp semis, dominated their only previous ATP-level encounter 6-1, 6-2 this summer in Toronto.

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Hot: Kevin Anderson, Kei Nishikori, Fabio Fognini, Borna Coric, Kyle Edmund, Nikoloz Basilashvili

Cold: Grigor Dimitrov, Jurgen Melzer, Milos Raonic, Albert Ramos-Vinolas, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga

Quarterfinal predictions: Dominic Thiem over Karen Khachanov, Fabio Fognini over Grigor Dimitrov, Diego Schwartzman over John Isner, and Borna Coric over Milos Raonic

Semifinals: Fognini over Thiem and Coric over Schwartzman

Final: Coric over Fognini

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