Familiar foes Dominic Thiem and Stefanos Tsitsipas will battle for a semifinal spot in Barcelona on Friday. The schedule also includes a showdown between Grigor Dimitrov and Pablo Carreno Busta, with both players coming off wins in third-set tiebreakers.
Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. (3) Dominic Thiem
Thiem and Tsitsipas will be going head-to-head for the third time in their careers and for the third time this season when they meet again during quarterfinal action at the Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell on Friday. Both of their previous encounters have gone the way of Thiem, who prevailed 7-5, 6-4 in Dubai and 6-2, 3-6, 6-3 at the Indian Wells Masters. A move from hard courts to clay should only help the world No. 7, who is a two-time French Open semifinalist and was clearly the second best clay-courter in the world behind Rafael Nadal last season. Thiem is tied for the 2018 lead in match victories (21) with Juan Martin Del Potro, and 10 have come on the slow stuff–including a title in Buenos Aires, a quarterfinal finish in Monte-Carlo, and Barcelona wins over Jaume Munar and Jozef Kovalik.
Tsitsipas has already more than doubled his previous lifetime ATP-level match win total (four) during this season alone (nine). The 19-year-old Greek is looking especially adept on clay, with successful qualification and a second-round showing in Monte-Carlo followed by victories this week at the expense of Corentin Moutet, Diego Schwartzman, and Albert Ramos-Vinolas. Still, those opponents are not even in the same ballpark as Thiem on this surface and the fact that Tsitsipas has already lost twice to the Austrian on hard courts does not bode well for his chances.
Pick: Thiem in 2
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(5) Pablo Carreno Busta vs. (2) Grigor Dimitrov
Whereas Thiem and Tsitsipas are a combined 10-0 in total sets this week, Dimitrov and Carreno Busta battled into the Barcelona quarterfinals the hard way on Thursday. Dimitrov saved two match points before outlasting Malek Jaziri 7-5, 3-6, 7-6(8), while Carreno Busta fought off three match points and finally converted his fifth to hold off Adrian Mannarino 6-2, 4-6, 7-6(6). The latter was a much-needed win for the 11th-ranked Spaniard, who made a semifinal run in Miami but missed the Monte-Carlo Masters due to a back injury and has plenty of points to defend in the coming weeks (title in Estoril, quarterfinal at the French Open). Carreno Busta, who opened with a 6-3, 6-3 rout of Benoit Paire, is 8-2 in his last 10 matches after starting the season 4-5.
Dimitrov is also heating up nicely on clay after going 1-4 in his last five hard-court matches. The fifth-ranked Bulgarian reached the Monte-Carlo semifinals (lost to Nadal) and preceded his thriller against Jaziri by destroying Gilles Simon 6-2, 6-1. Although Dimitrov leads this head-to-head series 3-2, he has lost each of his past two clay-court meetings with Carreno Busta–both in straight sets, including a lopsided 7-5, 6-3, 6-4 affair at the 2017 French Open. On this surface and at home in Spain, a slight edge goes to the No. 5 seed.
Pick: Carreno Busta in 3
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